Sabermetrics are a bunch of malarkey . . .

[Jestre]

Originally Posted by gglennwill

OK guys, let's settle this argument once and for all. I want you to take the guys with the highest RBIs in your last league at each position, and create a team. Then take the guys with the highest VORP at each position, and create another team. Now play 1000 games, one team against the other. There you have it! Argument settled!

No it doesn't, nobody said RBI's is the sole or best method of measuring a players value, merely a component. Apparently most of you VORP'ers are unable to comprehend that fact. Apparently VORPers are quite obtuse or just intellectually dishonest.

[snepp]

No one said VORP is the sole or best methed of measuring a player's value either, only that it is a superior measure to RBI.

[Jestre]

Originally Posted by snepp

No one said VORP is the sole or best methed of measuring a player's value either, only that it is a superior measure to RBI.

Actually VORPers claim RBI's are completely worthless and should not be considered at all for gauging a players value. Then there are others that disagree and believe RBI's should be considered. VORPers laugh at this notion.

[Charley575]

I just think it's funny how this thread won't die.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Actually VORPers claim RBI's are completely worthless and should not be considered at all for gauging a players value. Then there are others that disagree and believe RBI's should be considered. VORPers laugh at this notion.

And the point still stands... when you have all the stats you can use to create VORP, why look at RBI at all? What do RBI measure that hits, homeruns, walks, doubles, and so on don't?

[Jestre]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

And the point still stands... when you have all the stats you can use to create VORP, why look at RBI at all? What do RBI measure that hits, homeruns, walks, doubles, and so on don't?

Why??? Because RBI's is a real stat that measures real production. Goes back to the old question, who is more valuable a player that hits a solo homerun and strikes out with the bases loaded or a player that hits a grand slam and strikes out with the bases empty, VORP has them even. Non Vorpers would rate the GS hitter higher.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Charley575

I just think it's funny how this thread won't die.

I just wish I was getting royalties or something.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Why??? Because RBI's is a real stat that measures real production. Goes back to the old question, who is more valuable a player that hits a solo homerun and strikes out with the bases loaded or a player that hits a grand slam and strikes out with the bases empty, VORP has them even. Non Vorpers would rate the GS hitter higher.

Actually, people who follow VORP would say that the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. That being said, all else being equal, yes, if you agree with VORP then you would rate a .280/.350/.450 player with 80 RBIs equal to a .280/.350/.450 player with 100 RBIs? Why? Because RBIs are a team stat, not an individual stat.

Now in your magical fairy world where gaining RBIs is an actual documented skill instead of the product of opportunity, sure, RBIs could mean something. In actual baseball, they really don't, and none of your straw men can save that.

[Jestre]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Actually, people who follow VORP would say that the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. That being said, all else being equal, yes, if you agree with VORP then you would rate a .280/.350/.450 player with 80 RBIs equal to a .280/.350/.450 player with 100 RBIs? Why? Because RBIs are a team stat, not an individual stat.

Now in your magical fairy world where gaining RBIs is an actual documented skill instead of the product of opportunity, sure, RBIs could mean something. In actual baseball, they really don't, and none of your straw men can save that.

Tell that to the team that won 4-1 because their guy hit a grand slam while the other teams "equal" player hit a solo homer and struck out with the bases loaded. Jeez it must be nice to live in the theoretical world where everything is nice and comfy...

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Tell that to the team that won 4-1 because their guy hit a grand slam while the other teams "equal" player hit a solo homer and struck out with the bases loaded.

Anomaly.

[Jestre]

Originally Posted by Neags23

Anomaly.

Reality.

Two realtors sell a condo from the same complex, same unit cost. One realtor gets $100,000 the other gets $125,000. Which realtor is better??? According to VORP they are both the same.... just luck that one got more money right????

[andymac]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Reality.

Two realtors sell a condo from the same complex, same unit cost. One realtor gets $100,000 the other gets $125,000. Which realtor is better??? According to VORP they are both the same.... just luck that one got more money right????

Your analogy is flawed, a better analogy is selling raffle tickets. If seller A and seller B both sell 100 raffle tickets, but those that bought seller A's tickets won a value of $500 while the buyers of seller B's raffle tickets won $550 would you call seller B a better seller just because his tickets won more?

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Reality.

Two realtors sell a condo from the same complex, same unit cost. One realtor gets $100,000 the other gets $125,000. Which realtor is better??? According to VORP they are both the same.... just luck that one got more money right????

Your majesty, King of Mixed Metaphors... I don't even know what you're talking about. I'll play with your strange realtor metaphor, though and just point out that it's possible the one guy only got $100k because that particular unit needed a lot of work. Maybe the previous owners punched holes in the wall and it needed new plumming, etc. That would be the equivalent of circumstances beyond his control. Which is exactly what RBI's measure. So I guess your mixed metaphor was perfect after all.

It's an anomaly because it's a deviation from the norm. A player with a higher VORP will generally be the more successful player. Cherry picking situations where a player strikes out one time and another hits a homer the other time and all that is just as much 'theory' as anything you're saying is.

[tysok]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Actually, people who follow VORP would say that the sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. That being said, all else being equal, yes, if you agree with VORP then you would rate a .280/.350/.450 player with 80 RBIs equal to a .280/.350/.450 player with 100 RBIs? Why? Because RBIs are a team stat, not an individual stat.

Now in your magical fairy world where gaining RBIs is an actual documented skill instead of the product of opportunity, sure, RBIs could mean something. In actual baseball, they really don't, and none of your straw men can save that.

Insults don't help.

Originally Posted by Jestre

Reality.

Two realtors sell a condo from the same complex, same unit cost. One realtor gets $100,000 the other gets $125,000. Which realtor is better??? According to VORP they are both the same.... just luck that one got more money right????

It could be luck, it could be some intangible skill.

The argument is silly. VORP is a good tool, but not the end all be all of existance. RBI is an okay stat, but it too is not the end all be all of existance. VORP is figured on league average at a position. You can't say that a 3B with a VORP of 80 is worse than a RF with a VORP of 120 without looking at context. If every other RF in the league can't hit then your 120 VORP RF is inflated. The average RC in RF is so low that replacement level is pathetic, so a solid RF looks like a god. The 3B is competing among a league full of solid 3B, the replacement level for 3B is much higher and the 3B with an 80 IS a god among them. Without context you're just looking at RBIs that have been renamed VORP. Take VORP mixed with other stats and you can see who was better... VORP by itself and you see who was better than others at his position only.

RBI doesn't mean very much. A guy could have 100 RBIs and be a god because he only had 120 ABs with guys on base. Another could have 100 RBIs and be pathetic because he has 600 ABs with men on third. Without the context you're just finding out who pushed across the most runs, not who was actually best at pushing across runs.

Without context baseball statistics mean nothing. This is simply evidenced by Bonds vs Ruth. Bonds hit 73 HRs in a season and is now the all time HR leader. Is he the best HR hitter ever to play the game? Most people would say no, he hit 73 HRs in 2001 when the entire league hit 2,952. Ruth hit 60 in 1927 when the entire league hit 439, he hit more than any other team in the AL. Bonds accounted for 2.5% of the HRs hit in the NL, Ruth accounted for 13.5% of the HRs hit in the AL. Without context the number is meaningless. No stat can stand alone, sabermetrics are just tools to help you along the way.

[Jestre]

Vorp also makes allowances for park factors.... and how is park factor calculated???? As a league average. Its a fact that park effects are different for every player but VORP makes the assumption that you can average park effects for an individual based on league wide effects. Another flaw in VORP.

As for the previous example of Realtors, anyone with half a brain would have realized that I assumed identical conditions for both units. Just as the example with hitters hitting a grand slam or a solo homer were equal conditions.

Bottomline VORP completely ignores "REAL" production. VORP is the communism of statistics. Everyone hit is equal no matter what it produces.

[Neags23]

Originally Posted by Jestre

VORP is the communism of statistics.

Is an RBI the capitalist of statistics?

You do like your metaphors, don't ya?

[Syd Thrift]

RBI is the antidisestablishmentarianism of statistics!!!!!

Park factors come into account because a single at Safeco Field is worth more than a single at Coors. Why? Because overall there are a lot fewer runs scored at the Safe than in Colorado and therefore run-producing events are worth more.

If VORP is communism, what are park factors? Lysenkoism? Would that make the call to enshrine Tim Raines but keep Joe Carter out of the HOF the machinations of Fidel Castro?

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Jestre

VORP is the communism of statistics. Everyone hit is equal no matter what it produces.

Awesome. Hey, RBIs are a communist statistic too. Every run produced is equal, no matter how it was produced. And, if VORP were communist, then replacement level would be defined in such a way that every player came out equal.

Man, it's been a while since I've heard 'communist' used as a pejorative. I had to check the calendar to confirm that we're still in the 21st century, and that I hadn't entered some time warp back to 1950s middle America.

[Jestre]

Amazingly I get all kinds of replies but none of them addresses my criticisms of the flawed notion of VORP....

[andymac]

Originally Posted by Jestre

Amazingly I get all kinds of replies but none of them addresses my criticisms of the flawed notion of VORP....

Because no one here is trying to tell you that VORP is perfect. We understand the "flaws" and realize that it is still 1000 times better than the RBI statistic.

Think about it...you are considering the way that VORP adjusts for park factors as a weakness while using a stat (RBI) that doesn't even know parks have different scoring environments. I would contend that a slightly flawed park adjustment is much better than no park adjustment at all.