2007 New York Yankees Thread

[CommishJoe]

Here's a report from Newsday about pitchers at AA Trenton:

Joba Chamberlain One of the Yankees' top prospects, the 21-year-old righthander is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in six games since being promoted. He has 57 strikeouts and only 12 walks.

Michael Gardner The 26-year-old righthander has a 2.11 ERA in 30 appearances, with 54 strikeouts in 59 2/3 innings.

Alan Horne The 24-year-old righthander is 9-3 with a 2.34 ERA in 18 starts. He has 115 strikeouts and 29 walks in 103 2/3 innings.

Ian Kennedy The 22-year-old righthander, who pitched only 2 2/3 innings after signing last year, is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in eight games. He isn't allowing many baserunners, giving up 24 hits and 16 walks in 43 2/3 innings.

Jason Jones The 24-year-old righthander is 8-4 with a 2.45 ERA in 20 games, 14 of them starts.

Brett Smith The 23-year-old righthander is 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA and a shutout.

Some old guys in this report (26 years old at AA doesn't bode very well), but I found this interesting anyway.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by TheRaven

It has been one of the more interesting seasons to date. I have a good feeling about the rest of the year as well. This next stretch of games will be crucial because if they cant beat these teams, then they won't be going anywhere:

4 games with TB, 4 with KC, 3 with Balt, 3 with the White Sox, 3 more with KC, 3 more with Tor..that's a nice stretch where they need to look to go .700 over.

My friend and I were just saying that. They've got to clean up against these guys because the stretch after that is going to be difficult. Lotsa Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, and . . . Boston.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by CommishJoe

Here's a report from Newsday about pitchers at AA Trenton:

Some old guys in this report (26 years old at AA doesn't bode very well), but I found this interesting anyway.

Do the Yankees have any prospects who are not pitchers?

[CommishJoe]

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Do the Yankees have any prospects who are not pitchers?

The only name that comes to mind is Tabata, but I haven't heard about him in a while.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by CommishJoe

The only name that comes to mind is Tabata, but I haven't heard about him in a while.

His numbers seem to have improved since the last time I looked, and I am reminded that he is still only 18! Thanks for the reminder. That's one non-pitcher prospect . . .

[mlyons]

A .393 slugging percentage for an A-ball right fielder is somewhat underwhelming, even if he is only 18.

[edrooney]

Baseball America has the Yanks' Top 10 prospects as:

1. Philip Hughes, rhp
2. Jose Tabata, of
3. Dellin Betances, rhp
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
5. Ian Kennedy, rhp
6. Chris Garcia, rhp
7. Tyler Clippard, rhp
8. J. Brent Cox, rhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Brett Gardner, of

In their projected 2010 lineup for the Yanks, they have Hughes as the ace, and Tabata in RF. For interest, the entire lineup is (apologies for the lack of formatting):

Catcher Francisco Cervelli
First Base Eric Duncan
Second Base Robinson Cano
Third Base Alex Rodriguez
Shortstop Derek Jeter
Left Field Melky Cabrera
Center Field Johnny Damon
Right Field Jose Tabata
Designated Hitter Bob Abreu
No. 1 Starter Philip Hughes
No. 2 Starter Chien-Ming Wang
No. 3 Starter Dellin Betances
No. 4 Starter Joba Chamberlain
No. 5 Starter Ian Kennedy
Closer Mark Melancon

Hmm. I have my doubts about SS, 3B, CF and DH in that lineup. And surely, surely, Wang has to start giving up runs unless he starts striking people out. Or is real life calling Voros McCracken a liar?

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by edrooney

Baseball America has the Yanks' Top 10 prospects as:

1. Philip Hughes, rhp
2. Jose Tabata, of
3. Dellin Betances, rhp
4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
5. Ian Kennedy, rhp
6. Chris Garcia, rhp
7. Tyler Clippard, rhp
8. J. Brent Cox, rhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Brett Gardner, of

In their projected 2010 lineup for the Yanks, they have Hughes as the ace, and Tabata in RF. For interest, the entire lineup is (apologies for the lack of formatting):

Catcher Francisco Cervelli
First Base Eric Duncan
Second Base Robinson Cano
Third Base Alex Rodriguez
Shortstop Derek Jeter
Left Field Melky Cabrera
Center Field Johnny Damon
Right Field Jose Tabata
Designated Hitter Bob Abreu
No. 1 Starter Philip Hughes
No. 2 Starter Chien-Ming Wang
No. 3 Starter Dellin Betances
No. 4 Starter Joba Chamberlain
No. 5 Starter Ian Kennedy
Closer Mark Melancon

Hmm. I have my doubts about SS, 3B, CF and DH in that lineup. And surely, surely, Wang has to start giving up runs unless he starts striking people out. Or is real life calling Voros McCracken a liar?

Bolded players are players that BA will be down on at season's end. (Tabata they will likely just be moderately down on, unless he develops some power b/w now and then.) Underlined players are players that will/have rocketed up. Also, this list was before the Shef & Johnson trades, iirc. (Though, that does not change much.)

BA's midseason top 25 list put Joba at about #11 in all of baseball, iirc. About the #4 starter in the minors - behind Bailey, Kershaw & Buchholz.

Injuries have derailed Betances, Melancon, and Cox, while Gardner & Duncan just aren't that good.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by edrooney

And surely, surely, Wang has to start giving up runs unless he starts striking people out. Or is real life calling Voros McCracken a liar?

Wang induces a ton of groundballs. If the D keeps making plays behind him, he can be successful without lots of K's.

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by edrooney

And surely, surely, Wang has to start giving up runs unless he starts striking people out. Or is real life calling Voros McCracken a liar?

Chien-Ming Wang is actually strong confirmation of McCracken. DIPS is more than just strikeout rate, remember. As long as Wang continues to not give up many walks or homeruns, he'll be just fine.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by edrooney

Baseball America has the Yanks' Top 10 prospects as:

3. Dellin Betances, rhp
6. Chris Garcia, rhp
8. J. Brent Cox, rhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Brett Gardner, of

Who? (And I call myself a Yankee fan. Pathetic. )

Originally Posted by Joshv02

(Tabata they will likely just be moderately down on, unless he develops some power b/w now and then.)

That occurred to me as well, looking at those figures above.

[edrooney]

Originally Posted by mlyons

Chien-Ming Wang is actually strong confirmation of McCracken. DIPS is more than just strikeout rate, remember. As long as Wang continues to not give up many walks or homeruns, he'll be just fine.

Well, that's true, yes.

[edrooney]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Wang induces a ton of groundballs. If the D keeps making plays behind him, he can be successful without lots of K's.

But I thought that a simplistic basis of DIPS was that, if the outcome of an AB was a Ball In Play, then one can expect BABIP to even out, so GB% isn't anywhere near as important as Ks, BBs, and HRs in determining future projections.

I realise that DIPS has been discussed and refined since this original theory, but I believe the central concept remains true, doesn't it? Obviously high GB% is going to keep down the HRs, but with low K numbers, he's going to have either a lot of BBs or a lot of BIPs, so can expect his ERA to move towards the league average in future years?

[edrooney]

triola, with regard to Tabata. His numbers other than power look pretty fine. And he is just 18. Is there really a concern at low power at such a young age?

I mean, I keep hearing that hitters don't develop their max power until the late 20s at the earliest, so he's got like 10 years to hit the gym, take some HGH.

It's more important that the 'hitting' skills are established at this early age isn't it?

[mlyons]

Originally Posted by edrooney

But I thought that a simplistic basis of DIPS was that, if the outcome of an AB was a Ball In Play, then one can expect BABIP to even out, so GB% isn't anywhere near as important as Ks, BBs, and HRs in determining future projections.

I realise that DIPS has been discussed and refined since this original theory, but I believe the central concept remains true, doesn't it? Obviously high GB% is going to keep down the HRs, but with low K numbers, he's going to have either a lot of BBs or a lot of BIPs, so can expect his ERA to move towards the league average in future years?

The thing most people don't realize about DIPS is that a ball in play is actually an excellent outcome for a pitcher. In a purely theoretical sense, a pitcher in this era who never struck out a batter, walked a batter, or allowed a homerun would have an ERA somewhere between 3.00 and 3.40, depending on whose formula you're using. Most pitchers hurt themselves more by walking batters and allowing homeruns than they help themselves by striking batters out.

[edrooney]

Originally Posted by mlyons

The thing most people don't realize about DIPS is that a ball in play is actually an excellent outcome for a pitcher. In a purely theoretical sense, a pitcher in this era who never struck out a batter, walked a batter, or allowed a homerun would have an ERA somewhere between 3.00 and 3.40, depending on whose formula you're using. Most pitchers hurt themselves more by walking batters and allowing homeruns than they help themselves by striking batters out.

Yeah, that's true. Good point. I guess that Wang is a freak. Almost all pitchers give up some BBs and HRs, so require a decent K rate to help them out on the dERA front. I guess if you give few BBs and HRs, then you need less Ks.

Wang is an interesting example, though.

[Tony M]

Originally Posted by TheRaven

4 games with TB, 4 with KC, 3 with Balt, 3 with the White Sox, 3 more with KC, 3 more with Tor..that's a nice stretch where they need to look to go .700 over.

Looks like you're having the same problems with division-bottom-scraping Devil Rays as we did with the Royals... At least we've clinched a win in our series against the White Sox.

And restored the statistic that if you add up the Games Behind of the 2nd place teams in AL-C, AL-W, NL-E, NL-C and NL-W it comes to exactly the same number as the 2nd place AL-East team is behind... 8

Starting to overwork that old bullpen again though. Who would have said that by the last week and a bit of July that Vizcaino would have more W's than Pettitte, Moose and Clemens...

Have to feel sorry for Ramirez after his stellar first inning for the Y's - season ERA now up to 15.43!

[1998 Yankees]

My responses:

Originally Posted by redsoxford

Looks like you're having the same problems with division-bottom-scraping Devil Rays as we did with the Royals... At least we've clinched a win in our series against the White Sox.
Quoting myself, a "dola" indeed:

This stretch is going to make or break the season, finally.

And restored the statistic that if you add up the Games Behind of the 2nd place teams in AL-C, AL-W, NL-E, NL-C and NL-W it comes to exactly the same number as the 2nd place AL-East team is behind... 8
Please help me to understand the point here on this one.

Starting to overwork that old bullpen again though. Who would have said that by the last week and a bit of July that Vizcaino would have more W's than Pettitte, Moose and Clemens...
My Encarta Atlas tells me that you, living in Oxford, England, live approximately 3,412 miles from Yankee Stadium. I, on the other hand, am only 45 miles away yet you seem to be more on top of Yankee things than I am! Good observation and good news about Vizcaino, who seems to be coming around. Not good news for Pettitte (not his fault), Mussina (is his fault), and Clemens (not enough starts yet).

Have to feel sorry for Ramirez after his stellar first inning for the Y's - season ERA now up to 15.43!
Well, three outing is not much too worry about, but sure enough he looked bewildered out there last night after two good outings before. He could not even find the plate except the one pitch that went for a grand slam. I want to see more of him, just the same, and Torre not using him for weeks may have something to do with that. I feel a rant coming on, so I will just end with the observation that over the years Torre has consistently gone too far with struggling veteran pitchers. Farnsworth, for example, should already be on mopup duty. Why it's taken so long for Torre to even consider removing him from the setup role is beyond me.

[Tony M]

OK. I'll have to admit it - this is one hell of a batting class that you lot are giving the Devil Rays.

[rem]

Gezz, the Yanks really are seeing the ball well right now.