Bonds thread #4132465

<Pion> · 05-16-2007, 04:27 PM

Barry haters, here's what you do
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6811276

Bobby Bonds Jr. disappointed with Aaron
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6818224

1998 Yankees · 05-16-2007, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Barry haters, here's what you do
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6811276

They say to root for A-Rod to eventually surpass him. OK, but here's the math, according to the article:

Quote:

At 31, with 479 home runs, he has the best shot at breaking Bonds' eventual record — at least in this lifetime. Soon enough, he'll be the youngest man ever to hit 500. If he averages, say, 35 homers a year he'll be at 770 by the end of the 2015 season. He'd be 40.

He's got to average 35 HR's per year and do so while staying healthy until well past normal retirement age in the ML today (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and especially Franco notwithstanding). A long shot, I would say, and grasping at straws in response to the problem of Bonds.

treedom · 05-16-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

A long shot, I would say, and grasping at straws in response to the problem of Bonds.

Problem?

I think it's exciting. How often do we get to see a guy break the career HR record?

<Pion> · 05-16-2007, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

They say to root for A-Rod to eventually surpass him. OK, but here's the math, according to the article:

He's got to average 35 HR's per year and do so while staying healthy until well past normal retirement age in the ML today (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and especially Franco notwithstanding). A long shot, I would say, and grasping at straws in response to the problem of Bonds.

But compare the two at the same age...

Age 30
Barry - 292
ARod - 464

9 more seasons of 35 HRs would give him 315 more giving him 779. To break Aaron's record, in the same 9 years he needs to average 32 1/3rd per year. The article seems to not be giving him credit for a full season this year. If his season ended today, he would need to average 35 to the age of 40 to break Aaron's record.

Anything can happen and ARod is still a long way off. But without knowing what we know now, would anyone have given Barry a shot at the same age? As it is, I don't know if he'll have the psyche to do it or the drive to stay around.

MuertoDesagradecido · 05-16-2007, 06:39 PM

Well, yeah, but Barry Bonds has had some of his best seasons after 40, it's a pretty long shot to bet on A-Rod doing the same.

CMH · 05-16-2007, 06:41 PM

I would think that Alex would need to play somewhere else besides Yankee Stadium to average those 35 HRs well into 40.

I believe the new Yankee Stadium will have the same dimensions all around the board. 35 HR's a year for a right handed hitter might not be a lot for Alex, but it won't be easy.

1998 Yankees · 05-16-2007, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Anything can happen and ARod is still a long way off. But without knowing what we know now, would anyone have given Barry a shot at the same age? As it is, I don't know if he'll have the psyche to do it or the drive to stay around.

Oh, I don't say it won't happen, just that the odds are against it. You have to be at the top of this difficult game for a long time to put up numbers like that. Besides age, one major injury could ruin everything. Plus, you bring up another point in your last sentence that I was not even thinking about before, and that is another major consideration.

<Pion> · 05-16-2007, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1998 Yankees

Oh, I don't say it won't happen, just that the odds are against it.

They always are, as were they for Barry. I'm just saying (or should I say the article is maybe suggesting) that he is probably the current one with the best shot.

I personally wouldn't choose anyone to do it and will just be surprised when somebody does.

<Pion> · 05-16-2007, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuertoDesagradecido

Well, yeah, but Barry Bonds has had some of his best seasons after 40, it's a pretty long shot to bet on A-Rod doing the same.

As it was for Barry or anyone else.

darkhorse · 05-17-2007, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuertoDesagradecido

Well, yeah, but Barry Bonds has had some of his best seasons after 40, it's a pretty long shot to bet on A-Rod doing the same.

Plus, at his advanced age, Barry is still the best hitter in baseball. He has no compelling reason to retire and may play until he is 50. Who knows what Barry's home run total will be when he finally descends to the mortal realm.

darkhorse · 05-17-2007, 10:48 AM

dola,

There's another compelling reason ARod won't ever catch Bonds. Bonds is a far superior hitter. Barry's career equivalent average is 34 points higher (.357 to .323): close to the difference between ARod and, say, Andre Dawson (.285 career EQA).

Syd Thrift · 05-17-2007, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

dola,

There's another compelling reason ARod won't ever catch Bonds. Bonds is a far superior hitter. Barry's career equivalent average is 34 points higher (.357 to .323): close to the difference between ARod and, say, Andre Dawson (.285 career EQA).

What, exactly, are you trying to argue? Or are you just quoting Baseball Prospectus again?

andymac · 05-17-2007, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

dola,

There's another compelling reason ARod won't ever catch Bonds. Bonds is a far superior hitter. Barry's career equivalent average is 34 points higher (.357 to .323): close to the difference between ARod and, say, Andre Dawson (.285 career EQA).

That isn't actually all that important when it comes to ARod chasing Bonds in just the home run department. Especially since a big part of that is that Bonds walks so much, meaning less chances to hit a home run. That part of it is actually an advantage for Arod.

Dagrims · 05-17-2007, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

dola,

There's another compelling reason ARod won't ever catch Bonds. Bonds is a far superior hitter. Barry's career equivalent average is 34 points higher (.357 to .323): close to the difference between ARod and, say, Andre Dawson (.285 career EQA).

I don't think "hitter" is the correct word, since the difference is due mostly to walks. Maybe "batter". Does 10x as many intentional walks really make Barry a superior hitter? Also, EqA takes baserunning into account, so an additional reason for the difference (albeit a small one) is due to that fact.

Dagrims · 05-17-2007, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Plus, at his advanced age, Barry is still the best hitter in baseball. He has no compelling reason to retire and may play until he is 50.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barry Bonds

"I'm not playing baseball anymore after this," Bonds told USA TODAY in a telephone interview from his home in Beverly Park, Calif. "The game (isn't) fun anymore. I'm tired of all of the crap going on. I want to play this year out, hopefully win, and once the season is over go home and be with my family. Maybe then everybody can just forget about me."

Of course, that was from February of 2006, so who knows what compelling reason he might come up with to keep playing or retire?

Steve Kuffrey · 05-17-2007, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Plus, at his advanced age, Barry is still the ? in baseball. He has no compelling reason to retire and may play until he is 50. Who knows what Barry's home run total will be when he finally descends to the mortal realm.

Fixed that for ya...

darkhorse · 05-17-2007, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Kuffrey

Fixed that for ya...

I believe that question was answered 20+ years ago.

darkhorse · 05-17-2007, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymac

That isn't actually all that important when it comes to ARod chasing Bonds in just the home run department. Especially since a big part of that is that Bonds walks so much, meaning less chances to hit a home run. That part of it is actually an advantage for Arod.

Nah, I still thinks its an advantage for Barry because he has so much further to fall before dropping to a level of performance that might lead to retirement. The Jim Brown's of the sporting world are few and far between.

darkhorse · 05-17-2007, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

What, exactly, are you trying to argue? Or are you just quoting Baseball Prospectus again?

Welcome back JohnnySlickster/Mozilla Shakespeare! Roam with abannedon these friendly confines.

Steve Kuffrey · 05-17-2007, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Plus, at his advanced age, Barry is still the best http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13054312/ in baseball. He has no compelling reason to retire and may play until he is 50. Who knows what Barry's home run total will be when he finally descends to the mortal realm.

I apologize for my previously inaccurate correction.

05-16-2007, 04:27 PM	#1
<Pion> All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,428	Bonds thread #4132465 Barry haters, here's what you do http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6811276 Bobby Bonds Jr. disappointed with Aaron http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6818224

05-17-2007, 10:48 AM	#11
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	dola, There's another compelling reason ARod won't ever catch Bonds. Bonds is a far superior hitter. Barry's career equivalent average is 34 points higher (.357 to .323): close to the difference between ARod and, say, Andre Dawson (.285 career EQA). __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

05-16-2007, 06:39 PM	#5
MuertoDesagradecido Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Saint Francisco Posts: 436 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Well, yeah, but Barry Bonds has had some of his best seasons after 40, it's a pretty long shot to bet on A-Rod doing the same.

05-16-2007, 06:41 PM	#6
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	I would think that Alex would need to play somewhere else besides Yankee Stadium to average those 35 HRs well into 40. I believe the new Yankee Stadium will have the same dimensions all around the board. 35 HR's a year for a right handed hitter might not be a lot for Alex, but it won't be easy.