1994 outs the 'roid users

[Joliet Jake]

I didn't realize I had so many ex-Mets. Lots of ex Phils too, now that I look at it. I mostly went by suddenly increasing performance, mostly power, and their physical build. There's no evidence on ANY of these guys other than that.

My point is, it's never going to be an exact science, and you're never going to know for sure. You can guess, and with pitchers it's even harder to guess.

I know if I were doing the weeding out, I'd tend to weed out guys I didn't like anyway, but that's just me.

[CatKnight]

Mark McGwire was a good power hitter even before things went nuts. I'd say he would have been in the 40-45range. He probably would have played a bit longer, but as you note for Clemens that's really up to OOTP's aging model.

Sammy Sosa...I'd go in the middle. He would have been a tolerable power hitter, but not first echelon. I'd say he would have it around 30-35 in a year.

Incidentally, since you'll want to deal with it eventually, this is about where I'd put a clean Bonds. 35-40 a year.

Roger Clemens - Tough for me too, as I hate the guy. Accepting Clemens was on something, then it would most obviously have affected raw power (stuff). It probably affects longevity only in that he's still effective long after most folk would have stepped down. Longevity itself is random, but you might knock his injury levels up a few ticks to compensate.

[kreitena]

Naming steroid users, sounds fun!

Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Jose Canseco
Ken Caminiti
Dante Bichette
Bret Boone
Juan Gonzalez
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Giambi
Brady Anderson
Roger Clemens
Eric Gagne
Kenny Rogers
Rafael Palmeiro

(these are all assumptions of course)

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Joliet Jake

I think if the amount of steroid use in the mid 90s were actually known for sure, you might not have to adjust anything at all. I think it was that rampant.

I tend to agree with this. I know a girl who was on the golf team at the University of Alabama in the late 90's and she said it was common knowledge, among the students anyway, that the whole baseball team, as well as all other schools baseball teams, were on 'roids and that most started in high school.

Steroids were way more common than we think. Even little guys like Shawn Green were on some kind, I would bet. There are different kinds, some that build muscles and some that build endurance (pitchers would favour these).

[Syd Thrift]

I don't see Dante Bichette as a big 'roid guy. I see him as a 15-homer a year guy who had the luck to play a few years in Denver, where his warning-track fly balls turned into gold. He turned right back into a 15-homer a year guy the second he left Coors and never hit all that well outside of it even when he was playing there, so if he was taking steroids he was taking a special altitude-only variety.

[kreitena]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

I don't see Dante Bichette as a big 'roid guy. I see him as a 15-homer a year guy who had the luck to play a few years in Denver, where his warning-track fly balls turned into gold. He turned right back into a 15-homer a year guy the second he left Coors and never hit all that well outside of it even when he was playing there, so if he was taking steroids he was taking a special altitude-only variety.

I definitely do. I remember reading an SI MLB season preview article that was talking about Bichette, must have been the late 90s, and they said he gained some 40 lbs one off season. You got to assume that it's from some type of performance enhancing substance, even if most of the weight is just him being bloated from taking roids like an idiot (i.e. Jason Giambi).

[Jordan]

So when are you going to post some things about this dynasty, and who are you targeting as users?

[majormet]

I would demand Kevin Elster to pee in a cup in this dynasty, he was the most roided out guy ever.

[kreitena]

How about Billy Ashley?

[Joliet Jake]

I was just kind of thumbing through my old Bill James books and just writing down who COULD have. Also, I don't know why I called Terry Pendleton Tony. Must be the allergy meds. Performance blunting drugs. I also hated putting Kriby on that list, but there you have it.

Maybe you could pull a few random numbers per month based on player ID#, like random testing. Then if you feel their performance is unusual, give whatever random chance you feel is appropriate to "getting caught".

[Splitter24]

I liked the guy as a player. And I hate throwing names out there...

But I was always a little suspicious of Jeff Bagwell.

[Brewer77]

It's hard not to be suspicious in today's game. I can't rule anyone out from steroid use, especially, the guys who refuse to testing and/or talking about it.

[kreitena]

Craig Counsell

[Syd Thrift]

As strange as it may seem from looking at him, I'd rule out Frank Thomas. When the McGwire flap came about he was right on the front lines of players demanding testing. He's a naturally big guy (played tight end for Auburn in college) and his career arc has been a lot more normal-looking than some of these other peoples'.

One thing about steroids that isn't touched upon much is that it allows you to bounce back more quickly from fatigue. You should probably look into starters and especially relievers with "rubber arms". In addition to Roger the Rocket...

Livan Hernandez
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz (especially after the arm injury)
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettite

Jamie Moyer I think (slightly less tongue in cheek here) extended his career on illegal pitches, not steroids. Most other guys who pitch into their 40s are probably suspect on some level.

[DougWyatt]

I think it spread like wild fire. And not just the usual suspects.

It may be just easier to adjust the league totals.

[kreitena]

I think Kenny Rogers is the best example of a 40-something year old pitcher on roids. That guy gets some serious roid rage. Did you see him in the playoffs?

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by kreitena

I think Kenny Rogers is the best example of a 40-something year old pitcher on roids. That guy gets some serious roid rage. Did you see him in the playoffs?

Like Moyer, I'm gonna go with illegal pitches more than 'roids.

[kreitena]

Well if you're not cheating you're probably not trying hard enough.

[chredwdew]

Originally Posted by CatKnight

Mark McGwire was a good power hitter even before things went nuts. I'd say he would have been in the 40-45range. He probably would have played a bit longer, but as you note for Clemens that's really up to OOTP's aging model.

Sammy Sosa...I'd go in the middle. He would have been a tolerable power hitter, but not first echelon. I'd say he would have it around 30-35 in a year.

Incidentally, since you'll want to deal with it eventually, this is about where I'd put a clean Bonds. 35-40 a year.

Roger Clemens - Tough for me too, as I hate the guy. Accepting Clemens was on something, then it would most obviously have affected raw power (stuff). It probably affects longevity only in that he's still effective long after most folk would have stepped down. Longevity itself is random, but you might knock his injury levels up a few ticks to compensate.

Thanks CatKnight really good stuff here.

[chredwdew]

Originally Posted by Jordan

So when are you going to post some things about this dynasty, and who are you targeting as users?

The dynasty thread is here: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=146865

Who is being targeted as a user and what is going to be done about it the reason for this tread.