Whip

[Joshv02]

Originally Posted by andymac

I was looking at all NL pitchers with > 100 IP.

Thanks.

[andymac]

I have seen some pretty good major league pitches get hit pretty darn well.

[andymac]

Originally Posted by Joshv02

Thanks.

Actually, looking again...it looks like I used 120IP.

[QuestGAV]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You might find that interesting however I actually think there is some strategy involved in the game. You guys are probably coming up with some great ideas on recreating accurate numbers but it does little to explain simple baseball theory of why pitchers pitch ahead in the count or pitch to a spot.

I think DIPS does a great job explaining either one of those goals. Pitching ahead in the count will both increase your strikeout rate and decrease your walk rate at the same time. I think even Voros McCracken and Joe Morgan could sit down together and agree that's a pretty damn good idea. Since it's also been established that pitchers have some control over GB/FB/IFFB/LD% on a macro level, I'd imagine they also have control of it on a micro pitch-by-pitch level. All DIPS says is that little things like that largely come out in the wash - as you look across full seasons and careers, pitching to a spot is more helpful in generating extra strikeouts and fewer walks than it is in keeping balls in play from going for hits.

Maybe I dont understand this theory because I was a pitcher and felt perfectly comfortable knowing where the ball could end up by making good pitches. I never felt limited in my control. Good pitches=outs, Bad pitches=Runs.

Feeling like you're in control (even when you're not) isn't necessarily a bad thing. Nor is that feeling proof that you are in fact in control of those things.

[DougWyatt]

Where is a good site that has historical BABIP stats ?

[DougWyatt]

I ask because as I was driving to work I gave it some thought (admittedly - still haven't had time to "research").

But the first wave of evidence I would expect to see for this theory to hold water would be :

I'll use a 100+ innings (per year) filter.

-- Pitchers from the same team would historically post very similar BABIP. as they (for the most part) pitch in the same stadiums, conditions, and in front of the same defense. Sure this isn't exactly the case, but more often than not because of the normal 3 game series - this should pretty much balance out.

-- There would be minimal difference between "good" or "bad" pitchers with regard to career BABIP. I say minimal, as the theory "gives in" that "good" pitchers do have minimal control over it.

[Spielman]

Originally Posted by DougWyatt

Where is a good site that has historical BABIP stats ?

Try fangraphs.com

Or just enter, say, "Roger Clemens BABIP" into google and click on the link that says it's from fangraphs.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

If you really want to argue this point, you have to agree then also that.

*A hitter making contact on a 3-0 count is just as likely to get out as a hitter on an 0-2 count if the ball is in play. Same with any other count in baseball whether the pitcher is ahead or behind in the count* Some pitchers obviously have better control meaning they would control circumstances by pitching ahead in the count

*Hitters red zones and blue zones in essence mean nothing as well because no matter wherever the ball contacted it has just as likely of a chance to be a hit*

These are unrelated to pitching. Hitters control BABIP.

You're still going to extremes... didn't you read anything I wrote? Go back and reread what I said about pitchability and how there's a whole lot of gray area to deal with right now. Otherwise debating the point further is a waste of time for me.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by QuestGAV

Since it's also been established that pitchers have some control over GB/FB/IFFB/LD% on a macro level,

Actually, the studies show that LD% for pitchers is essentially random on a macro level. If you can get your hands on the 2006 THT Baseball Annual, Gassko's article in there has a table that shows year-to-year statistical significance of all that stuff.

[Spielman]

Actually, since Greg Maddux seems to be the poster boy for the "DIPS is nonsense, how does it explain Greg Maddux?!?!?" stuff that pops up every time this subject comes up, let's look at his graphs. The first graph will be Maddux's BABIP compared to the league average throughout his career. The league average will be the blue line.

(Picture courtesy of FanGraphs.com, a totally awesome site)

[Spielman]

Now here's his BB/9, done the same way.

[Spielman]

And his Ks/9 innings.

[Spielman]

And finally, his HRs given up/9 innings.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Maybe I dont understand this theory because I was a pitcher and felt perfectly comfortable knowing where the ball could end up by making good pitches. I never felt limited in my control. Good pitches=outs, Bad pitches=Runs.

I was a third baseman, but that doesn't mean I feel like I can explain everything about playing third base. I always defer my own subjective observations to objective data.

Also, I'm assuming you played in high school (like me) or even college. These theories are more likely to break down as you move down the talent ladder.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Good pitches=outs, Bad pitches=Runs.

Are you saying good pitches would increase the chance of strikeouts, reduce the chance of walks, therefore ending up with more outs?

Or are you saying good pitches would be hit to places a fielder can field?

You probably know that the later case also depends a lot on the quality of hitters and the quality of defense.

Supposedly you are pitching to hitters way above your league, the hitters are probably going to be the one controlling if the ball will be hit hard, not you.

If you are pitching in front of a horrible defense, it's probably all runs and no outs regardless of your pitch.

MLB is a very specific case where player level is highly concentrated.

[Spielman]

Looking at those graphs, does it look like Maddux's success comes from getting guys to hit ground balls to the shortstop, or from not walking people and not allowing them to hit the ball out of the park?

[Luis_Rivera]

Nice job of summing that up with visuals, spielperson!

[jbergey22]

so 17 out of 22 years Maddux was under the league average in BABIP?

Thanks for the charts, it doesnt have a lot of relevance to the topic because I am sure everyone debating is aware of Maddux's great control and ability to limit HR's due to his "heavy" ball however it is interesting.

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally Posted by Spielman

Looking at those graphs, does it look like Maddux's success comes from getting guys to hit ground balls to the shortstop, or from not walking people and not allowing them to hit the ball out of the park?

I would say the latter
His BB/9 rate is jaw dropping as his his HR/9

And he is striking out batters at a league average of slightly above.

It does not take alot of brain power to realize if you dont put me on base (walks) or allow mass globs of runs (homeruns) that you going to be an effective pitcher.
Combine that with striking out a league average number of batters which further reduces your HRs and also reduces the number of hits you give up.
Those three things make you a superb pitcher.
Then you add in a few years of 'hit' luck or a really good defense (read Atlanta mid 1990s) that turns you into a legendary pitcher.

Or was your question rhetorical?

[rudel.dietrich]

I also want to say that using a single player to try and disprove a therory that applies to thousands of other players is not a good way to win a debate.