Huge Hole in Draft AI Logic

[lynchjm24]

If the game is going to continue to create the super MRs for the draft, at the very least the AI should draft them.

I am in the 7th round of a 30 round draft.

There is a 4.5 star potential MR with potentials of 15 stuff, 5 movement, 18 control and 9 endurance.

The AI just suggested I take a 5-8-10 pitcher because he's listed as a starter and has 14 endurance.

This is just a huge problem. I have to go out of my way to avoid these high upside MRs because I could collect 8 of them in every draft.

Finally the 4.5 star potential pitcher was taken in the 9th round: The pitcher taken 1 slot before him was another MR with 6-10-7 talents and an 11 in endurance.

Endurance is way, way, way way way overvalued by the AI at least in the draft process.

[endgame]

I'm not sure I'm with you on this one 100%. In my experience, movement has been considered part of the staying power endurance implies. Personally, I'd rather have a 10 movement than a 5 even if it meant I gave up the 18 control for the 7. A 5 movement to me, at least, indicates - regardless of endurance - the likelihood the pitcher will eventually get drilled. If it's early, it doesn't matter if his endurance was 20, he'll get pulled.

Also, with AI "suggestions" keep in mind the scout (are you using a Head Scout?) has his own preferences as well. Unless you've skewed those to match yours, there may be some disagreement about value. I do understand your concern, and it's been mentioned by others that endurance still weighs too heavily in those decisions. I'm just having trouble seeing it - and I may be wrong - in the illustration you've submitted.

[kq76]

Latest EDIT: I thought lynch was talking about initial drafts, which he's not, so you can probably ignore my post.

I don't know either. Whether or not a pitcher can give me SP-like innings is a huge factor as to whether I'll draft him high. Good MRs can be a dime a dozen and when they don't get you near the amount of innings a 3rd or 4th SP does, even if the SP doesn't have near the other ratings the MR does, I'd rather go with the SP. By the 9th round I've usually got my first 4 starting pitchers (with higher ratings than the one recommended to you), though, so maybe I would go with the MR. It's something worth looking into, but I wouldn't definitely call it a problem at first blush.

EDIT: It really depends on what you're already drafted and what's available. Maybe you haven't drafted enough SPs yet and/or maybe it's saying there are lots of these MRs left and so it's telling you that SPs are more important right now.

I always found age to be more of a problem in drafting AI than positions or roles.

[Another Mike D]

I agree with Lynchy actually. Even in my historical drafts, the AI is passing on great MRs with mediocre endurance to draft sour SPs with great endurance. For example, I'm in 1985 and Mitch Williams was available in the 4th round (which is almost the end) and he was 8/8/3 (st/mo/con) and had a 2 in endurance. Meanwhile, the AI had taken starters with 8 or 9 in endurance but were like 4/5/5. I also see this in my fictional leagues.

It also favors endurance within MRs. For exampe, it gave a guy 4* who was like 5/5/5 but had a 5 or 6 endurance, yet a guy who was 7/7/7 with a 2 endurance was 2* or something. Funny thing is, the guy with a 5 in endurance ends up pitching roughly the same amount of innings as the guy with a 2.

[lynchjm24]

These MRs that are left are SO Much better then the other players being taken it's silly.

The players that are getting taken ahead of them are useless minor league dregs.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by kq76

By the 9th round I've usually got my first 4 starting pitchers (with higher ratings than the one recommended to you), though, so maybe I would go with the MR.

You can't be talking about the same thing that I am. I'm not talking about an initial draft, I'm talking about the annual amature draft.

[kckid4u]

There are too many MR's to start with anyway. Is this something that can be changed somewhere?

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by endgame

A 5 movement to me, at least, indicates - regardless of endurance - the likelihood the pitcher will eventually get drilled. If it's early, it doesn't matter if his endurance was 20, he'll get pulled.

Also, with AI "suggestions" keep in mind the scout (are you using a Head Scout?) has his own preferences as well.

A 5 in stuff won't get a pitcher drilled? You are giving up 11 points in control and 10 points in stuff to pick up 5 points in movement, I'm sorry but that's crazy.

I'm not using any scouting, so I know I'm seeing the real ratings. In the draft you can still ask for a recommendation.

Huerta is current 7-1-4-9 S-M-C-E. Talent is 15-5-18-9
The player picked 4 slots ahead of him Garza:
Current 3-1-1-11 Talent 5-9-9-11

Both are listed as MRs in the draft log. So the AI thinks that 2 points of endurance and 4 points of movement are MORE VALUABLE then 10 points of stuff and 9 points of Control.

There is no way that isn't completely screwed up.

[lynchjm24]

>10 endurance seems to be the magic number.

3 ROUNDS earlier another MR
Talents 7 stuff, 8 Movement, 9 Control 11 endurance.

10 picks before
6 stuff, 8 movement, 10 control, 12 endurance
So -9 stuff, +3 movement, -8 control, +3 endurance?????

[kq76]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

You can't be talking about the same thing that I am. I'm not talking about an initial draft, I'm talking about the annual amature draft.

Oh, you're right, I thought you were talking about an initial draft. I've never played with amateur drafts past 10 rounds so I can't really comment.

[Curtis]

Originally Posted by kckid4u

There are too many MR's to start with anyway. Is this something that can be changed somewhere?

You can go in as commissioner and edit them individually.

Or, you can start a campaign for a 'mass select' option to change a bunch of them at once. That's what I'm doing.

[MizzouRah]

This has been the case in every version of ootp. MR's are always plentiful and always under valued.

[Mr. Capo]

I posted a rant about this in the 2006 game forum. In the amateur draft, ALL the SPs get gobbled up first. Often mediocre starters are picked ahead of hall-of-fame position players. I expressed it as the AI having a bias for starters, but maybe it could also be said that endurance is way overvalued in the draft.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

This has been the case in every version of ootp. MR's are always plentiful and always under valued.

I don't know if it's ever been this pronounced. Can we please get someone from SI to acknowledge that this is going to be addressed? It's painfully obvious it's an issue.

[endgame]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

I don't know if it's ever been this pronounced. Can we please get someone from SI to acknowledge that this is going to be addressed? It's painfully obvious it's an issue.

Apologies. I reacted, too, as if talking inaugural. I'm closer to the 100% with you than I was. However, as the AI evaluates positions, I tried to initiate a dialogue in this thread:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ight=inherited

starting with post #16, coupling it with my campaign for the return of IRS% and some additional MR credit.

[Wabner]

Originally Posted by Curtis

You can go in as commissioner and edit them individually.

Or, you can start a campaign for a 'mass select' option to change a bunch of them at once. That's what I'm doing.

I have been editing the players via commish mode. I agree that this is something that needs fixed, though.

[DawnBTVS]

Well, how many SP's that are drafted in the RL Major League drafts get turned into MR's?

As a GM, I would think common sense wise that a SP would be more valuable than a MR (I'm ignoring names b/c OOTP doesn't recognize them) and if the SP fails, they can be turned into MR's later (Eric Gagne, Dennis Eckersley, Smoltz for a while, etc.).

If you could get a guy who could give you even league average ERA (Say 4.26) for let's say 180 IP (A #4/#5 SP) vs. a MR who could give you a 3.00 ERA in 60 IP, who would you take?

My question is, does the greatness of the MR outweigh the loss of 120 IP over the season?

[Jonah Falcon]

I look at Stuff more than Movement, myself.

[red95vette]

Originally Posted by DawnBTVS

If you could get a guy who could give you even league average ERA (Say 4.26) for let's say 180 IP (A #4/#5 SP) vs. a MR who could give you a 3.00 ERA in 60 IP, who would you take?

My question is, does the greatness of the MR outweigh the loss of 120 IP over the season?

Let's play devil's advocate:

Some quick back of the envelope math. Let's assume I expect to get an average of 6 innings out of my starting rotation over the course of the season. Let's also assume the "average" game length will be 9 innings pitched -- allowing for lesser innings when I'm away and lose and more innings when we go to extra frames.

So I need 3 inn x 162 gms = 486 inn out of my relief staff. If I carry 7 relievers that's 69 inn/man avg with 8 guys on board that's 61 inn/man avg.

So for me a great or really good MR for instance might be more valuable to my club than a mediocre #5 SP or possibly even better than a #4 SP depending on how many mediocre starters are available to pick up later in FA or via trade or promotion of a minor-league guy. Kind of like a "replacement value" proposition, if you're familiar with that logic for determining fantasy draft picks.

However, this whole specific issue aside, the generality of this issue points to what I think is the overriding factor. Namely, we as users might disagree over whether the SP or MR is the better pick. That's natural for us to have differing opinions. Likewise, the game should capture THAT aspect. Some of the AI GMs should prefer the SP no matter what -- some should prefer the MR if he's significantly better than the SPs available. The whole league of AI GMs should NOT feel the same way about personnel and value mediocre SPs universally above really good MRs.

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by red95vette

The whole league of AI GMs should NOT feel the same way about personnel and value mediocre SPs universally above really good MRs.

We aren't talking about the difference between mediocre SP's and great MRs. We are talking about the difference between SPs who will top out in AA versus extremely valuable major league pitchers. This isn't a debate between a #5 starter and a good MR. It's an actual prospect versus minor league fodder.