clutch hitting rating?

[Big Johnston]

>Scientific studies don't PROVE anything

JML, whoever taught you science failed you miserably.

Science and mathematics can prove things. Science and mathematics can also disprove things. This not arguable, and your ignorant opinion is immaterial: this is simply fact.

EVERY scientific study of clutch hitting has drwan the same inevitable conclusion: it doesn't exist. Some of the studies are up on the web.

[sporr]

[quote]Originally posted by Big Johnston:
<strong>EVERY scientific study of clutch hitting has drwan the same inevitable conclusion: it doesn't exist. Some of the studies are up on the web.</strong><hr></blockquote>

I must respectably differ from your opinion on this. Every scientific study of clutch hitting has concluded that clutch hitting MAY exist but that it isn't enough of a factor to be statistically significant. One thing that I found interesting was that most studies focus on finding players who performed significantly better in the clutch. Actually, a clutch hitter could just be someone who maintains his level of ability when most others do worse. The league as a whole performs worse in clutch situations, so the clutch hitter (if one exists) could maintain his level of play and still perform better than his counterparts. I'm in no way saying that clutch hitting exists. Evidence and study say that it probably doesn't. But it stops short of saying that it absolutely does not exist. This from exploring every link to any clutch hitting study I could find on google.

[Big Johnston]

It's not "my opinion." It's the consensus held by everyone who has ever taken a scientfic look at the subject.

Clutch hitting IS A MYTH.

Harold Brooks of SABR in his ground-breaking study of the subject: "Clutch hitting, as presently defined, is a mirage at best."

Math professor David Grabiner, who studied the subject in great detail: "I still don't have evidence that clutch hitters exist, and if they do, they cannot be very important." Grabiner's methods and conclusions are at

<a href="http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/fullclutch.html" target="_blank">http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/grabiner/fullclutch.html</a>

The Man Himself, the great Bill James on the myth on clutch hitting: "I have yet to find anything to indicate that there is a group of people who hit better in the clutch than others."

There's an elaborate Bill James discussion of the subject at <a href="http://www.cfmc.com/adamb/sabr/inout.htm" target="_blank">http://www.cfmc.com/adamb/sabr/inout.htm</a>

To quote Rob Neyer, the famous baseball columnist who was once Bill James' research assistant, "If you look, really look at the 'evidence' of clutch hitting as a true ability rather than happenstance, you find out that, at best, it's a bunch of blurry photos, in the form of poorly constructed studies presented by people who desperately want to believe." Neyer wrote a brilliant and detailed column on the subject. It's at:

<a href="http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/neyerclutch.htm" target="_blank">http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/neyerclutch.htm</a>

Clutch hitting IS A MYTH. It is an article of faith only among those who do not know any better. It is a ludicrous belief on a par with Little Green Men, the moon being made of cheese, Elvis being alive and working on road crews, and there being a Loch Ness Monster.

[sporr]

I am not saying that clutch hitting DOES exist. I am just saying that you cannot prove that it doesn't. As stated by Bill James:

<a href="http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html" target="_blank">http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html</a>

"There's no way to prove that there isn't a clutch hitter," James says. "That's like trying to prove there isn't a Loch Ness Monster. But I have yet to find anything to indicate that there is a group of people who hit better in the clutch than others."

[ December 12, 2001: Message edited by: sporr ]</p>

[PineTar]

[quote]Originally posted by sporr:
<strong>I am not saying that clutch hitting DOES exist. I am just saying that you cannot prove that it doesn't. As stated by Bill James:

<a href="http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html" target="_blank">http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html</a>

"There's no way to prove that there isn't a clutch hitter," James says. "That's like trying to prove there isn't a Loch Ness Monster. But I have yet to find anything to indicate that there is a group of people who hit better in the clutch than others."

[ December 12, 2001: Message edited by: sporr ]</strong><hr></blockquote>

If we don't know if a clutch effect exists, why add it to the game? If you do add it, why not add all these too:

- player playing in hometown peformance modifier
- player playing against former team modifier
- player biorythms
- media relations impacting peformance
- lunar tide effects
- player horoscopes and psycic readings from Miss Cleo
- sleep deprivation modifier to performance
- seventh inning stretch singer modifier (a.k.a. the Roseanne Barr / Mike Ditka effect)
- teams perform better if pitcher's name is Guido

I can probably come up w/ a few more effects whose effects can't be disproven, but I'll leave it at that.

[DreamTeams]

Team (not player) playing in hometown modifier would be kind of fun. Seriously, you guys are making some good points.;-)

[Khaos]

I have taken your 2 cents and have found them shiny and agreeable.

[Big Johnston]

"There are plenty of people who believe that Elvis is alive, or that aliens occasionally land here to do highly personal things to people, or that the whole idea of evolution is a conspiracy of godless scientists. Almost all of these people can vote and some of them have got guns."

---Terry Pratchett, The Discworld Companion

[Killebrew]

I believe some players are mentally tougher and can often perform better under pressure than other players (clutch situations being pressure situations), but IMO it's too simple to just call them clutch hitters. I guess it's high-confidence/high-competitiveness combined with (usually) high ability. At the same time pitchers are also effected by the same combination of confidence, competitiveness & ability. On top of that pitchers will also pitch more carefully to the high-confidence/high-competitiveness/high-talent hitters . I guess if the game introduces a minor clutch performance rating it should apply to all players, and in many cases the pitchers clutch rating might cancel the batters out.

[Big Johnston]

ESPN's Rob Neyer on why people want to believe in the myth of clutch hitting:

"I think that this obsession sports fans have with 'clutch hitters' and 'money players' is yet another manifestation of what I will call our 'need for explanation.' We humans simply aren't content with thoughtless gods like Dame Fortune and The Great Unknowable. They scare us. Give us the willies, the creepy-crawlies.

So we invent mythical creatures like 'the clutch hitter,' in hopes that maybe the dreaded Imps of Ramdomland will leave us alone, at least while we're watching the ballgame in the presumed safety of our own homes."

[manutebol]

Great post tar man!
I want to add to my previous post and say that the best compromise ACTUALLY would be to make it optional.yeah, thats it.
shawn

[hellfrozeover]

Well for one thing most other baseball sims have the clutch rating and many users have gotten used to it. Also it is easier to program than player's biorythms. I know that was sarcasm but I choose to take it literally. I do think that as long as you don't get carried away with it, a hidden clutch rating is perfectly fine. I stated an explanation of what I think is clutch hitting in an earlier post in this string. Like I said up there, clutch isn't necessarily what you think it is, but a smart hitter making the situation work for him.

Oh and one more thing, when Ditka (also known as God here in Chicago) was double-parked and sang the 7th inning stretch at wrigley with the cubs behind, they came back and won. Don't tell me that Ditka didn't have anything to do with that.

EDIT: Yeah, I got a little behind (this reply is to the last post on page 1 of this string).

[ December 13, 2001: Message edited by: hellfrozeover ]</p>

[Big Johnston]

"It is a pleasure to stand upon the shore, and to see ships tost upon the sea: a pleasure to stand in the window of a castle, and to see a battle and the adventures thereof below: but no pleasure is comparable to standing upon the vantage ground of truth... and to see the errors, and wanderings, and mists, and tempests, in the vale below."

---Sir Francis Bacon

[Becks910]

Being a baseball player myself and having played in over 80 games this past summer, and hundreds of more games in my life, I feel that I am qualified to talk on the subject of clutch hitting.

As a hitter, and as a fielder, you know when it is a big at-bat in the game. I have seen people who just absolutely crap their pants when it is a big at bat and there are others who rise to the occasion. However, all in all, it is a rare occasion that a player is *that* much worse or *that* much better of a hitter when it is a clutch situation. So, as for hitting...clutch hitting definately exists. But as it has been mentioned many times before in this thread, most players maintain similar statistics between clutch and non-clutch batting averages. Those that crap or rise are few and far between. However, there is one aspect that we are leaving out...the defensive aspect of a clutch situation. As an amateur, I understand that I am not a professional, and errors are bound to happen, but even with me, when i play SS and there are two outs with a runner on third...even after making that throw 1 trillion times to first base, it is a lot harder in that clutch situation. I think clutch fielding exists moreso than clutch hitting. There definately are those that can step up and make a big play defensively when you need it, and those that cannot. I think also age and experience in the league should play in to consideration when determining clutch fielding (ie. Alfonso Soriano)

[sporr]

[quote]Originally posted by Becks910:
<strong>I think clutch fielding exists moreso than clutch hitting. There definately are those that can step up and make a big play defensively when you need it, and those that cannot.</strong><hr></blockquote>

That's interesting. The Statis-Pro table top game series includes clutch fielding for just this purpose, though I don't know of too many other games that have included it. I agree completely.

[Khaos]

Let your own mind do the clutch hit myth. It will happen. In High Heat, I had one guy, Joe Deviant, he always seemed to get the big hit needed for the win. He was a career .278 hitter with some power and fanned a lot, but he always seemed to come through in clutch situations. I made him a clutch hitter in my mind. That is all clutch hitting is. A belief. Kind of like our economy. If you believe in it, it prospers.

[Henry]

"Joe Deviant" ?!?!?!?

Geez, what an excellent reason to change your name LOL

[Mad Dan]

[quote]Originally posted by sporr:
<strong>I am not saying that clutch hitting DOES exist. I am just saying that you cannot prove that it doesn't. As stated by Bill James:

<a href="http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html" target="_blank">http://www.kcstar.com/item/pages/sports.pat,sports/3acd1500.a23,.html</a>

"There's no way to prove that there isn't a clutch hitter," James says. "That's like trying to prove there isn't a Loch Ness Monster. But I have yet to find anything to indicate that there is a group of people who hit better in the clutch than others."

[ December 12, 2001: Message edited by: sporr ]</strong><hr></blockquote>


So, in other words, James is saying that Clutch hitting is about as believable as the Loch Ness monster, eh?

I think this should give us a good idea of whether or not to include it in the game.

[Scott Vibert]

As I mentioned on the old board, I am not necessarily in favor of a clutch rating... but if it is included, the effect must be VERY small.

Obviously as a manager, I shouldn't be selecting my .190 hitting back up second baseman to pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth over my stud backup first baseman who hits .295 with 15 HR, just because the back up second baseman is rated highly for "clutch" performance. So the clutch effect needs to be small enough to counteract this.

The rating should be somewhat rare, it should be special to find that player who performs when the chips are down... and conversly there needs to be players who are rated poorly in the clutch.

If its included and you don't want to deal with it.. you can always set all players with clutch ratings to average via the editor...

Edit-by the way to reiterate I am NOT in favor of the rating... but will deal and not scream like a banshee if its included.. I'll deal or set everyone to average.

Also one question... how will the game handle this for historical leagues? Will the rating be turned off, or will the game randomly assign this?

[ December 21, 2001: Message edited by: ScottVib ]</p>

[sporr]

[quote]Originally posted by ScottVib:
<strong>If its included and you don't want to deal with it.. you can always set all players with clutch ratings to average via the editor...</strong><hr></blockquote>

This is something everyone needs to remember. If clutch hitting is included as an option, just don't use it if you don't agree with the concept. The thing that has made this game great is it's flexibility in allowing each user to play the way they want.