The Draft, Forced Retirements, Reserve Roster and League Age

[dougaiton]

There seems to be nothing on the Patch list about this issue so dear to my heart, so I'm going to port my findings over here so hopefully we can get some more discussion on it. A wise old Eckstein once taught me a long time ago that the only way to get problems recognised with OOTP is to post the thread in multiple places.

In my mind, it hits on a number of issues, and is linked in to RMY's great work. I believe that there is too high a limit on draft size, that the reserve roster needs an 'AI' of its own, that forced retirements (players who the game retires so as to cope with the influx of young talent, often aged 28-30) cause problems for the league age (both in introducing players too young and not having enough vets).

Posts below ported from http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=124663

20 Year Sim, 1 League, Six Teams, 25 Man Roster (+25 Reserve R), Five Round Draft (Minimum)

Well, my twenty year sim has me a little worried. I hate Access, and wish I was at work with SPSS, but here's my age distribution for a 20 year sim.

age	Count Of Players
18	7
19	10
20	12
21	19
22	30
23	31
24	22
25	24
26	20
27	25
28	21
29	24
30	21
31	17
32	15
33	7
34	5
35	5
36	5
37	2
39	1
41	2

There are 27 players over 32. There seems to be a gentle decline 31.32 followed by a steeper drop off. The point of worry for me, however, is not these, but rather this: there are more teenagers in this league than over 24s, and more 20 and unders than people over 33. Qualitative analysis to follow, but my bet is the 41s and 39s are legacies of the inaugural draft.

The reserve roster is of course the problem here, and I wish I could switch it off. Nevertheless, the point is clear, a five-round draft means older players get flushed out of the reserve league too quickly, meaning that they lose the chance to play on longer.

The average age of a major league player is just 26.22, and this is bolstered by two 41s and two 39s not draftees but legacies from the inaugural draft. Otherwise the average would be only be 26.09. To be honest, that's not too bad, but what worries me is that the league is not a lot of 25-34 year olds, but rather a ton of young (very young?) players with virtually nobody even approaching the decline phase of a career, let alone actually declining!

[dougaiton]

Qualitative stuff, now. I looked at three of the teams in 2024, who had 12 retirements between them. Of these retirements, three I'd consider natural retirements:

Alanzo Lechuca, retired at 37
Bienvenido Coarra, retired at 34
M. Nuncz, retired at 35

The rest I would call forced retirements – players with capable skill levels, and skill levels better than their compatriots on the reserve roster, well below retirement age.

Name, Age, Ratings, Notes
SS B. Ussery, 30, 10/10/1/8, had 10 seasons service for big team
MR J. Kinneir, 30 5/3/12 - 10 seasons service, last season 5.9 VORP
MR J. Yeley, 30 11/8/9 pitched six years of positive VORP ball in the majors
SS J. Strickland, 28, 7/9/4/8/7
SS M. McMires, 28, 7,7,2,10,10
SP J. Ballard, 32, 4/13/5 - 12 years as a starter in the majors
SS J. Bertemarti, 30, 8/13/3/10 - signed a 500k per year extension 1 month before retiring!
MR K. Ushiyami, 30, 7/13/7
C K. Sor, 28, 7/12/7/10

Obviously, the ratings are just for illustrative purposes, and to show that these guys, weren’t just walking stiffs.

Of the 12 retirements, 3 looked like natural retirements, while, IMO, the others were players who had a record of major league service and most importantly ratings good enough to stay in the organisation. One had just signed an extention and, although he had missed the season before with injury, had put up a .746 OPS year at SS in the bigs the year before that. Rather predictably, the game force-retires players on the reserve roster regardless of their ability as long as they are a) over 26 and b) didn't have any ABs at the major league level the season just finished. These players were all of a decent level, had a track record in the majors (although not necessarily a good one) and hadn't ever been released by the AI. Only one was over 30.

The problem of this approach, as to culling bad prospects, is three fold:
a) Decent players stuck on reserve rosters are wiped from the game, as one season with ML ABs will probably result in instant retirement.
b) The league becomes artificially young, because all the backups are young. The chance of any non-regular veteran establishing themselves are minimal. Almost all of these players got their major league start at 20.
c) There reserve roster does not resemble a roster at all. By making arbitrary retirements on the basis of age, rather than releasing bad young players, the reserve roster gets skewed in favour of positions that often get called up to the majors. Thus, the vast majority of reserve rosters consist of middle relievers and backup catchers, but only a couple (if any) starting pitchers because these are very rarely called up into action, the AI seems to prefer to bring up reserve MRs and convert one of the ML relievers back to an SP. This in turn is cyclical: when the big club’s SPs get injured, there are none in the reserve roster so they instead select a MR.

[dougaiton]

CONCLUSIONS

So I see three things here:
1) A five round draft fills the reserve roster with young players, and the game needs to force retire players to maintain this. The league gets artificially young - almost all these players had played upwards of 8 or 9 years in the majors, most starting at 20.

2) Forced retirements are bad things if it forces decent players out of the game while really bad young players (5th round draftees, for example) are not cut. Remember, these are reserve roster players that the AI considers good enough not to release.

3) There is no 'reserve roster AI', so reserve rosters become storing pools for young MRs and Cs, rather than players that could actually help the AI at times of crisis.

So there are three solutions, IMO:
1) Give us the option for smaller draft classes
2) Replace force-retirements with releases into the FA pool, meaning that decent 28 year olds with track records of decent MLB service don't simply disappear.
3) Impose 'sensible' roster limits on the reserve roster; if someone needs force-retired, make it the fourth backup catcher, not the only SP on the reserve roster.

The reserve roster, if possible, should be made optional, as well. Most needed is the option for <5 round drafts. I could write a whole other post about how these individuals all got starts in the majors aged 20.

[Dogzilla]

I agree but would also like the ability to set reserve roster size from 0 to 25.

[No Pepper]

I don't have the game yet as I've only tried the demo, so forgive me if I seem rather naive. The Game Guide says the Reserve Roster size is 200-# on active roster. But it also implies that the reserve roster serves as a de facto minor league system, where players develop as an average minor leaguer would. That would tell me that possibly older players ,who've been on major league teams before, would be "offended" in being sent down and then would consider retirement based on their age, and then retire after a certain time. Having a reserve roster size that could be ~175 players wouldn't necessarily have an effect on retiring or not.

A few questions:

1) Which roster do your annual draftees get placed? And how long do they stay there before being called up?
2) What event initiates transactions to send veterans down to the reserve roster? New draftees? Reserve guys developing?
3) What are your trading options set to? Would this same phenomena be happening if frequency was set to Very Low? (not sure if Free Agency has these settings)
4) Would eliminating the reserve roster and having one level of minors achieve the same result?

In all, I think your findings are somewhat alarming, there's something definitely going on.

[dougaiton]

Some great questions here!

Originally Posted by No Pepper

I don't have the game yet as I've only tried the demo, so forgive me if I seem rather naive. The Game Guide says the Reserve Roster size is 200-# on active roster. But it also implies that the reserve roster serves as a de facto minor league system, where players develop as an average minor leaguer would. That would tell me that possibly older players ,who've been on major league teams before, would be "offended" in being sent down and then would consider retirement based on their age, and then retire after a certain time. Having a reserve roster size that could be ~175 players wouldn't necessarily have an effect on retiring or not.

That's a very good point, and it would make some sense as to why some utterly terrible reserve roster guys never make it to the bigs and never get cut.

A few questions:

1) Which roster do your annual draftees get placed? And how long do they stay there before being called up?

All draftees go straight to the reserve roster, but almost all make it to the bigs by the end of the season they have been drafted. Stupidly, I left 'expanded roster' on.

2) What event initiates transactions to send veterans down to the reserve roster? New draftees? Reserve guys developing?

I perceive it to be the expansion of the rosters, and (crucially) the start of a season. Pitchers especially can be a crucial part of the roster the year before, then immediately appear on the reserve roster, spend a year there and retire.

3) What are your trading options set to? Would this same phenomena be happening if frequency was set to Very Low? (not sure if Free Agency has these settings)

'Normal', but I will check and see whether the AI ever trades reserve roster players, and whether it ever releases them.

4) Would eliminating the reserve roster and having one level of minors achieve the same result?

I think it wouldn't. One level of minors would at least force it to stick to roster conventions, and operate with some level of AI. In my next post, I've got bits about the makeups of each of the reserve rosters. Some have no starters at all, one has 19 middle relievers etc. etc. A couple have no catchers, and one only has 3 infielders. It may also make it more concerned with ratings. Turning off roster expansion might also have an effect.

I really need to test this though, but running a twenty year sim takes near enough twenty years on my computer!

Thanks!

[dougaiton]

I've never seen a reserve roster over 32 players... the AI is clearly trimming players. Any player on the reserve roster had MLB ABs the year before, implying that to me that it is as simple as if a player over 26 doesn't get a big-league game, they are 'retire'.

SP - 1
MR - 7
C - 1
1B - 4
2B - 3
3B - 2
SS- 1
OF - 5

SP - 0
MR - 4
C - 3
1B - 3
2B - 0
3B - 2
SS - 4
OF - 7

SP - 0
MR - 8
C -5
1B - 1
2B - 3
3B - 3
SS - 1
OF - 5

SP - 1
MR - 19
c - 0
1B - 6
2B - 1
3B - 1
SS - 2
OF - 3

SP - 2
MR - 16
C - 3
1B - 1
2B - 1
3B - 1
SS - 0
OF - 9

SP - 2 (+2 long-term injured)
MR - 16
C - 4
1B - 1
2B - 1
3B - 0
SS - 1
OF - 4

So, in total:
SP - 6
MR - 54
C - 16
1B - 16
2B - 9
3B - 9
SS - 9
OF - 33

I think that's indicative of a lack of 'Reserve Roster' AI. The only thing that seems to determine the reserve roster is a simple equation whereby a selection of playesr over 27 that did not feature in the majors the year before are retired. It's not automatic, but there's not a lot of reason to this - Jeff Burgess is rated 1/1/5 and has never made it to the majors, for example, whereas Jim Kinnear, who had just finished one year of a two year 700k per deal, retired, despite his 5/3/12 ratings and 12 years of excellent relief pitching the bigs (followed by one year of nothing on the reserve roster).

Although players seem to develop, almost every player featured in the majors the year after he was drafted, and almost every major league starter was starting by the second year of his professional development. For example, I'll look at the Team 1's rotation

Richard Mallioux, drafted at 18, debuted at 18, 19 Starts aged 20
Jerold Losado, drafted at 22, debuted at 22, 13 starts at 24
Stan Pritchett, drafted at 21, debuted at 21, 45 games age 22
Bill Tanner, drafted at 18, debuted at 18, 23 starts at age 22
Cornelio Victorero, drafted at 20, debuted at 20, 11 starts at 21, 35 starts by 22

All this rotation debuted in the year they were drafted, all were starters in the bigs within a couple of years and all but one was a full-time member of the rotation by the age of 22.

[andymac]

All the guys that are listed as MR...do they all have low endurances?? I'm wondering if the game is just changing their position to MR because they aren't in the rotation.

[andymac]

Dola,

I wonder if the problem is that young players are too good at the start. According to what I have read, they should be getting "A-ball" MLB equivalency adjustments. However, if they are all actually being used in the majors that quickly I have my doubts that is happening. If they are all major league ready (or close to it) when they come out of the draft, that could be causing these problems.

[dougaiton]

Originally Posted by andymac

All the guys that are listed as MR...do they all have low endurances?? I'm wondering if the game is just changing their position to MR because they aren't in the rotation.

I'm sure that's the case for a lot of them - mostly because their ratings are so low. I need to check whether their endurance changes. That it doesn't change them back isn't a bad problem, except that it's going to change the way the game views them. The team with four pitchers on their reserve roster is still screwed!

[dougaiton]

Originally Posted by andymac

Dola,

I wonder if the problem is that young players are too good at the start. According to what I have read, they should be getting "A-ball" MLB equivalency adjustments. However, if they are all actually being used in the majors that quickly I have my doubts that is happening. If they are all major league ready (or close to it) when they come out of the draft, that could be causing these problems.

Exactly. I think most of them can play in the majors almost immediately, especially the pitchers. This is more so when you consider that the game's DIPS system considers that ALL pitchers should have a consistent BABIP, be they major-league vets or 19-year old draftees (or position players?). I'm a huge fan of DIPS, but this last logical leap is something that no-one has ever, ever said.

The other thing, IMO, is that the game will evaluate a 5/5/5 with 10/10/10 potential as better than a 7/7/7 veteran (this is on the 20 scale) with a seven-figure major-league contract and free agency approaching. Of course, it is right - you'd take the former in a trade in a heartbeat. Yet it makes no sense to drop the 7/7/7 vet to the reserve roster to make way for a twenty-something who could still do with a lot of minor league pitching.

The game, although it does consider service time when evaluating a player, doesn't seem to consider it when bringing people up to the majors. Like Allard Baird, dragging up Justin Huber to ride the pine, bringing up a teenage starlet to pitch mop-up and starting his FA countdown is nonsensical.

[dougaiton]

Bumpety-bump. Any chance of official recognition that this is an issue?

[spark240]

Originally Posted by dougaiton

Like Allard Baird, dragging up Justin Huber to ride the pine, bringing up a teenage starlet to pitch mop-up and starting his FA countdown is nonsensical.

If we ever get a roster management AI that is as smart as people want, can we also have a slider for each organization to reintroduce realistic stupidity?

[joek1972]

Originally Posted by spark240

If we ever get a roster management AI that is as smart as people want, can we also have a slider for each organization to reintroduce realistic stupidity?

Also known as the "Steve Phillips" slider.

[fantom1979]

bump, i do not use reserve rosters very often, but when i do i dont want to run into AI problems

[dougaiton]

Bump. Everyone loves drama, but no-one loves this, seemingly. This has been on pg1 for over a week and still no acknowledgement.

[dougaiton]

BIG FONT CAN OFTEN GRAB THE ATTENTION OF FOLK. AT THIS POINT, I'D TAKE ANY SORT OF OFFICIAL RECOGNITION, EVEN IF THAT OFFICIAL RECOGNITION WAS ALL OF 'GO AWAY, THAT POST WAS LONG AND HAS TOO MANY WORDS'

[darkcloud4579]

It's certainly an issue, but I don't think its going to get addressed anytime soon.

[Syd Thrift]

Honestly, I think the issue's bigger than something easily patchable. The AI needs to focus a lot harder on actual performance, current and past, than what it thinks performance might be in the future based on his scout's recommendations. I think that the AI errs far too often on the "let's try the n00b out" side and not enough on the "this guy is a proven winner, last 2 years be darned" side. The proof of the pudding, in this case, is that you can search the entire boards and you will not find a single OOTP2006 complaint about the AI staying with a bad player for too long.

[Jordan]

I would like to see this worked on. What's the point of having all these new features if they don't work?