Player aging ?

mtw · 03-26-2002, 06:17 PM

I'm wondering if my players not lasting past age 38 is limited to my league. Over one-and-a-half seasons in one league, and two simmed seasons in another league, every player who reaches 37 begins to suffer massive ratings decline such that by the time they turn 39, they are basically useless. In OOTP3, there were occasional players who could play until 40-42. I have only seen 3.5 seasons total, but there have been no players who were in a starting role at the end of a season at age 39. I am wondering if it's only me experiencing this.

Any insight (on this matter) is welcome.

Killebrew · 03-26-2002, 06:43 PM

There probably is some change from v3, but I have had a player stick around to 41 already, and players playing to age 39 is common. Not sure how many of these guys are starters though - the 41 year old was useless but refused to retire gracefully

.

mtw · 03-26-2002, 07:08 PM

[quote]Originally posted by Killebrew:
There probably is some change from v3, but I have had a player stick around to 41 already, and players playing to age 39 is common. Not sure how many of these guys are starters though - the 41 year old was useless but refused to retire gracefully

.<hr></blockquote>

I've had several players stick around to 39, early 40's in OOTP4 as well, but they're washed up by the time they turn 39. I guess I'm frustrated because this severely limits chances of record-breaking and comparable careers to real-life Hall of Famers. (Which is in part also (with the exception of a couple of pitchers I've seen) because players aren't ready to start until they're at least 23, and usually closer to 25, meaning careers of everyday players are about 15 years maximum--3 to 5 full seasons shorter than the prototypiccal H of F'er).

Night2000 · 03-26-2002, 07:27 PM

I agree, I think the players aging routine needs to be tweaked. Where some older players skills doesn't decline so rapidly! In my 12 year league
most players 39 and over drop too drastically.

JML · 03-26-2002, 07:51 PM

this post has nothing to do w/ aging but it IS post #10000 in this forum!

Woohoo!

edit-forgot a zero

[ March 27, 2002: Message edited by: JML ]

Seton Hall Pirate · 03-26-2002, 08:08 PM

[quote]Originally posted by Night2000:
I agree, I think the players aging routine needs to be tweaked. Where some older players skills doesn't decline so rapidly! In my 12 year league
most players 39 and over drop too drastically.

<hr></blockquote>

I had Jim Thome hit his 756th home run about a month before he turned 40. He actually started for another year after that.

dasperp · 03-26-2002, 08:38 PM

On one end, Bernie Williams hit .330 with 30 hrs when he was 41. On the other, Sammy Sosa hits 79 Homers with KC, then hits 29 in Colorado the next year.

mh2365 · 03-26-2002, 10:33 PM

I'm less concerned with the old guys than I am with the fact that you almost never see a draft choice make it to the bigs in his 2nd or 3rd year .... 22 and 23 yr olds in the draft should be further advanced than the 18 y/o, but they don't seem to be ... in my own league, it takes 4-5 years for my draft choices to get to AAA, doesn't seem right

chrisj · 03-27-2002, 02:18 AM

[quote]Originally posted by mh2365:
I'm less concerned with the old guys than I am with the fact that you almost never see a draft choice make it to the bigs in his 2nd or 3rd year .... 22 and 23 yr olds in the draft should be further advanced than the 18 y/o, but they don't seem to be ... in my own league, it takes 4-5 years for my draft choices to get to AAA, doesn't seem right<hr></blockquote>

I'm concerned with the fact that I have pitchers from computer teams who are drafted and start playing in the majors right away - never even pitching a single game in the minors.

[ March 27, 2002: Message edited by: chrisj ]

Siv · 03-27-2002, 02:31 AM

I had Bert Blyleven win the Cy Young award in like 1987/88 for me. He went 24-6 with a 2.36 ERA at age 39. Then he wanted a 10 million dollar contract for 3 years and it was asta luago.

fluharty · 03-27-2002, 02:53 AM

i have seen both pitchers and positional players stick around until 41-42. Rare, but it happens.

rwd59 · 03-27-2002, 04:28 AM

I had Hank Aaron in an MVP season tell me he was going to retire at 37. I too would like to see a more gradual decline for older players. I also agree about the time it takes for younger players to develop, especially hitters. I draft Mike Schmidt in 1972 and it took until 1980 for him to make it as an everyday player. I only use historical players and if they had a poor rookie year or only had a very few at bats they come into the game with such poor ratings they never develop into what they ahould be(Schmidt was a 0 avg and 0 power guy as a rookie). Don't know much about programming but I wonder if since the game looks at career totals for "potential" it could also look at them to raise the rookie ratings a little for people who had long and productive careers and leave it lower for those who didn't. If not then maybe rate the rookies on their first two or three seasons instead of their first.

fluharty · 03-27-2002, 04:35 AM

Right. Start a historical league in 1996 and look at how crappy they have Vladimir Guerrero rated. It should look ahead at the player's whole career and generate some sort of development, plateau, decline curve.

johnnyshaka · 03-27-2002, 07:20 AM

I had a guy play until he was 43...and he played well too...lead the league in walks every year of his career...had a career OBP of over .450. It was really weird, his ratings didn't fall off at all until August and then they went down in a hurry...he retired in the spring.

That's the oldest guy I've ever seen in any of my leagues.

mtw · 03-27-2002, 07:53 AM

So it is just my league. Great.

Draft Dodger · 03-27-2002, 08:03 AM

on my AFBL Bears, 38 is a young player...

joshuaaaaaa · 03-27-2002, 08:05 AM

I recently drafted a new league (Rolen Rosters) and took Roger Clemens in the 8th round. The day the season starts, he tells me he's going to retire at the end of the year. Right now, its early September and he has 16 wins, or 296 for his career. I'm doing what I can to get him extra starts (he lost his 1st September start) and a shot at 300 wins. I realize he has enough K's to get into the hall of fame, I just find it hard to believe he'd retire with 298 wins.

In terms of performance, his numbers are below the 2001 level, although not terrible. He's something like 16-11 with an ERA in the low 4s, and about 150 strikeouts in about 175 innings. He's allowed a fair number of hits, and is still an above-average pitcher. Again, why retire when he can still be effective?

I agree that the aging issues could be improved upon in the game...and I'm gonna enjoy the game whether they are or not!

My 100th post! JML! Buy me a beer!

SirRich · 03-27-2002, 09:42 AM

I was curious about how often players play at age 20 and 40 so I ran a query on the lahman database. There have been 5 players in the last 15 years that have had more than 400 plate appearances at age 20. There have been 13 players age 21 or under. The five players at age 20 are: Furcal, A. Jones, Renteria, Alomar, and Griffey Jr. Of course Furcal and Renteria really were not 20 so there are actually only 3. There were 13 playes age 40 or older in the last 15 years and 6 players age 41 or older. The players were Boone, Downing, Evans, Fisk, Henderson, and Winfield. The oldest was Fisk at age 43. In real life it does not happen too often at these ages. I will post some pitchers later.

SirRich · 03-27-2002, 09:54 AM

Follow up. There have only been 60 players since 1920 that have had more than 400 PA in a season at age 39 or older. That is in 82 seasons so it is less than on per season. MTW, it looks like it is very likely that you will have seasons without a starter age 39 or older. I was actually surprised by this. On the other end of the scale there were 88 players that started at age 21 or younger. About 1 per season. If I move the number to 22 or younger the number jumps to 215 or roughly three per season. I will get the pitchers sometime.

SirRich · 03-27-2002, 10:19 AM

As for pitchers there have been 29 pitchers throw 125 innings at the age of 20 or younger since 1920. One thing that is striking about this list is how many are not Hall of Famers. Alot of blown out arms. There were 7 players at the age of 19 and the number jumps to 98 at age 21 or younger. At the other end there were 49 pitchers at age 40 or older. 32 players age 41 and older. Would you believe that there were 8 pitchers that threw 125 innings at the age of 44 or older?

03-26-2002, 06:43 PM	#2
Killebrew Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 3,326	There probably is some change from v3, but I have had a player stick around to 41 already, and players playing to age 39 is common. Not sure how many of these guys are starters though - the 41 year old was useless but refused to retire gracefully . __________________ FOBL Capital City Metropolitans CDL Minnesota Twins

03-26-2002, 07:08 PM	#3
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	[quote]Originally posted by Killebrew: <strong>There probably is some change from v3, but I have had a player stick around to 41 already, and players playing to age 39 is common. Not sure how many of these guys are starters though - the 41 year old was useless but refused to retire gracefully .</strong><hr></blockquote> I've had several players stick around to 39, early 40's in OOTP4 as well, but they're washed up by the time they turn 39. I guess I'm frustrated because this severely limits chances of record-breaking and comparable careers to real-life Hall of Famers. (Which is in part also (with the exception of a couple of pitchers I've seen) because players aren't ready to start until they're at least 23, and usually closer to 25, meaning careers of everyday players are about 15 years maximum--3 to 5 full seasons shorter than the prototypiccal H of F'er). __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

03-26-2002, 07:27 PM	#4
Night2000 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Monroe, NJ Posts: 716	I agree, I think the players aging routine needs to be tweaked. Where some older players skills doesn't decline so rapidly! In my 12 year league most players 39 and over drop too drastically. __________________ http://night2000.blogspot.com/ This post has the Al Bundy and Homer Simpson stamp of approval!

03-26-2002, 07:51 PM	#5
JML Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: The act or process of locating. Posts: 2,154	this post has nothing to do w/ aging but it IS post #10000 in this forum! Woohoo! edit-forgot a zero [ March 27, 2002: Message edited by: JML ]</p>

03-26-2002, 08:08 PM	#6
Seton Hall Pirate Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Cheshire, CT Posts: 46	[quote]Originally posted by Night2000: <strong>I agree, I think the players aging routine needs to be tweaked. Where some older players skills doesn't decline so rapidly! In my 12 year league most players 39 and over drop too drastically. </strong><hr></blockquote> I had Jim Thome hit his 756th home run about a month before he turned 40. He actually started for another year after that.

03-26-2002, 06:17 PM	#1
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	Player aging ? I'm wondering if my players not lasting past age 38 is limited to my league. Over one-and-a-half seasons in one league, and two simmed seasons in another league, every player who reaches 37 begins to suffer massive ratings decline such that by the time they turn 39, they are basically useless. In OOTP3, there were occasional players who could play until 40-42. I have only seen 3.5 seasons total, but there have been no players who were in a starting role at the end of a season at age 39. I am wondering if it's only me experiencing this. Any insight (on this matter) is welcome. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

03-26-2002, 08:38 PM	#7
dasperp Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 61	On one end, Bernie Williams hit .330 with 30 hrs when he was 41. On the other, Sammy Sosa hits 79 Homers with KC, then hits 29 in Colorado the next year.

03-26-2002, 10:33 PM	#8
mh2365 Banned Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: louisville Posts: 14,941 Infractions: 0/2 (101)	I'm less concerned with the old guys than I am with the fact that you almost never see a draft choice make it to the bigs in his 2nd or 3rd year .... 22 and 23 yr olds in the draft should be further advanced than the 18 y/o, but they don't seem to be ... in my own league, it takes 4-5 years for my draft choices to get to AAA, doesn't seem right

03-27-2002, 02:18 AM	#9
chrisj All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Edmonton, Alberta (but still wishing I was in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada) Posts: 834	[quote]Originally posted by mh2365: <strong>I'm less concerned with the old guys than I am with the fact that you almost never see a draft choice make it to the bigs in his 2nd or 3rd year .... 22 and 23 yr olds in the draft should be further advanced than the 18 y/o, but they don't seem to be ... in my own league, it takes 4-5 years for my draft choices to get to AAA, doesn't seem right</strong><hr></blockquote> I'm concerned with the fact that I have pitchers from computer teams who are drafted and start playing in the majors right away - never even pitching a single game in the minors. [ March 27, 2002: Message edited by: chrisj ]</p> __________________ Canadian Baseball League -- Commissioner -- Calgary GM

03-27-2002, 02:31 AM	#10
Siv Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Minnesota Posts: 365	I had Bert Blyleven win the Cy Young award in like 1987/88 for me. He went 24-6 with a 2.36 ERA at age 39. Then he wanted a 10 million dollar contract for 3 years and it was asta luago.

03-27-2002, 02:53 AM	#11
fluharty All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Morgantown, WV Posts: 1,023	i have seen both pitchers and positional players stick around until 41-42. Rare, but it happens.

03-27-2002, 04:28 AM	#12
rwd59 All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: LA (Lower Alabama) Posts: 991	I had Hank Aaron in an MVP season tell me he was going to retire at 37. I too would like to see a more gradual decline for older players. I also agree about the time it takes for younger players to develop, especially hitters. I draft Mike Schmidt in 1972 and it took until 1980 for him to make it as an everyday player. I only use historical players and if they had a poor rookie year or only had a very few at bats they come into the game with such poor ratings they never develop into what they ahould be(Schmidt was a 0 avg and 0 power guy as a rookie). Don't know much about programming but I wonder if since the game looks at career totals for "potential" it could also look at them to raise the rookie ratings a little for people who had long and productive careers and leave it lower for those who didn't. If not then maybe rate the rookies on their first two or three seasons instead of their first.

03-27-2002, 04:35 AM	#13
fluharty All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Morgantown, WV Posts: 1,023	Right. Start a historical league in 1996 and look at how crappy they have Vladimir Guerrero rated. It should look ahead at the player's whole career and generate some sort of development, plateau, decline curve.

03-27-2002, 07:20 AM	#14
johnnyshaka All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 680	I had a guy play until he was 43...and he played well too...lead the league in walks every year of his career...had a career OBP of over .450. It was really weird, his ratings didn't fall off at all until August and then they went down in a hurry...he retired in the spring. That's the oldest guy I've ever seen in any of my leagues. __________________

03-27-2002, 07:53 AM	#15
mtw All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 653	So it is just my league. Great. __________________ Over-Zealous Apologist

03-27-2002, 08:03 AM	#16
Draft Dodger Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: formerly of the OTBL Posts: 4,113	on my AFBL Bears, 38 is a young player... __________________ Draft Dodger (Anarchy: Anything goes. The Draft Dodger viewpoint.) Sophmoric[sic] Member of the OOTP Boards (It's not OOTP; it's your computer) 15 GB Webhosting for $6.95 a month IMO we are best off abandoning that sinking ship that is Off Topic to the rats infesting it and just starting a whole new Baseball Forum from scratch.

03-27-2002, 08:05 AM	#17
joshuaaaaaa All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 633	I recently drafted a new league (Rolen Rosters) and took Roger Clemens in the 8th round. The day the season starts, he tells me he's going to retire at the end of the year. Right now, its early September and he has 16 wins, or 296 for his career. I'm doing what I can to get him extra starts (he lost his 1st September start) and a shot at 300 wins. I realize he has enough K's to get into the hall of fame, I just find it hard to believe he'd retire with 298 wins. In terms of performance, his numbers are below the 2001 level, although not terrible. He's something like 16-11 with an ERA in the low 4s, and about 150 strikeouts in about 175 innings. He's allowed a fair number of hits, and is still an above-average pitcher. Again, why retire when he can still be effective? I agree that the aging issues could be improved upon in the game...and I'm gonna enjoy the game whether they are or not! My 100th post! JML! Buy me a beer! __________________ Baltimore Monarchs-GUBA Baltimore Orioles-ORB2 "One of the greatest discoveries a man makes, one of his great surprises, is to find he can do what he was afraid he couldn't do." ~Henry Ford ~

03-27-2002, 09:42 AM	#18
SirRich Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 99	I was curious about how often players play at age 20 and 40 so I ran a query on the lahman database. There have been 5 players in the last 15 years that have had more than 400 plate appearances at age 20. There have been 13 players age 21 or under. The five players at age 20 are: Furcal, A. Jones, Renteria, Alomar, and Griffey Jr. Of course Furcal and Renteria really were not 20 so there are actually only 3. There were 13 playes age 40 or older in the last 15 years and 6 players age 41 or older. The players were Boone, Downing, Evans, Fisk, Henderson, and Winfield. The oldest was Fisk at age 43. In real life it does not happen too often at these ages. I will post some pitchers later.

03-27-2002, 09:54 AM	#19
SirRich Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 99	Follow up. There have only been 60 players since 1920 that have had more than 400 PA in a season at age 39 or older. That is in 82 seasons so it is less than on per season. MTW, it looks like it is very likely that you will have seasons without a starter age 39 or older. I was actually surprised by this. On the other end of the scale there were 88 players that started at age 21 or younger. About 1 per season. If I move the number to 22 or younger the number jumps to 215 or roughly three per season. I will get the pitchers sometime.

03-27-2002, 10:19 AM	#20
SirRich Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 99	As for pitchers there have been 29 pitchers throw 125 innings at the age of 20 or younger since 1920. One thing that is striking about this list is how many are not Hall of Famers. Alot of blown out arms. There were 7 players at the age of 19 and the number jumps to 98 at age 21 or younger. At the other end there were 49 pitchers at age 40 or older. 32 players age 41 and older. Would you believe that there were 8 pitchers that threw 125 innings at the age of 44 or older?