Pitching Ratings to Stats Formula

[John Marsh]

(K Rating + 11.64663462)/.612980769 = K per 550 AB

(110 - BB Rating)/1.09 = BB per 550 BF

(105-HR Rating)/2.741935484 = HR per 550 AB

DISCLAIMERS:

(1) I used the 1-100+ rating scale;
(2) The formulas don't work out exactly, for some reason I don't care to find out, but they will get you within one or two of the actual number (even closer for HR);
(3) BB is per batters faced, not at bats;
(4) Raising or lowering one rating in a category will affect another category, though no more than 1 or 2 points usually;
(5) I didn't worry about how velocity might affect Ks.


Finally, it's possible, using these formulas, to figure out a pitcher's expected DIPs ERA. Substract BB from 550BF to get AB, reduce strikeout and home run totals accordingly. Subtract HR, K, and BB from 550 for BIP, multiply that by League BABIP, and multipy expected hits by league average double and triple rates to get the number of singles, doubles, and triples. Now you can estimate runs created. Subtracting H from AB will get you outs, divide by 3 for IP, then multiply RC by 9 and divide by 3. Usually, though, I multiply the runs created number by .9 to account for errors.

[D Love]

I take it that this is intended to serve as a rating translator and not a stat translator? In other words, given your caveats, an 85 BB rating is the equivalent of saying someone walks 23 out of 550 BF? Not that the 85 rating is expected to result in 23 BB per 550 BF per season, right?

But if you admit that other ratings affect the stats, then wouldn't the +/- range be huge when factoring in all ratings? This DOES make my head hurt.

[John Marsh]

Yeah, ratings to stats. Using the pitcher editor, it's pretty easy to go from stats to ratings, and I can dig those formulas up somewhere, but I think most people will just be interested in the ratings-stats equivalent

The +/- doesn't change things too much, and I've been using these in my solo league and get very good, admittedly anecdotal predictions/results.

Of course defense changes everything--and a pitcher will not perform the same for one team as he does for another. League Totals will change results too. But as a starting point these seem right.

[swat-spas]

nevermind, try reading all the posts swat..

but a good bump nonetheless

[Joshv02]

A fortunate bump. I've never seen.

Thanks for the work, John.

[andymays]

<Finally, it's possible, using these formulas, to figure out a pitcher's expected DIPs ERA. Substract BB from 550BF to get AB, reduce strikeout and home run totals accordingly. Subtract HR, K, and BB from 550 for BIP, multiply that by League BABIP, and multipy expected hits by league average double and triple rates to get the number of singles, doubles, and triples. Now you can estimate runs created. Subtracting H from AB will get you outs, divide by 3 for IP, then multiply RC by 9 and divide by 3. Usually, though, I multiply the runs created number by .9 to account for errors.>


Quick question for John, what method do you use to estimate the runs created?

[Jayzone]

For rating to stats translation under *any* league total setting for *both* pitching and batting ratings, you can try my Rating Translator Mod.

It does the dynamic rating translation for any player in the league and the slightly advanced expected performace stats are also calculated for you (eg. OBP, SLG, OBP, K/9, WHIP, etc.). I coded the core program and eriqjaffe coded the GUI (graphic user interface). It's simple to use and might save you something time. I suggest you give it a try.

For details on Rating Translator Mod, click on the following link.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ad.php?t=83176