Pitching ratings...

[Specs]

In an effort to come up with a rating system that could be used to apply accurate talent ratings to historical players, I sought out the expected statistics for each rating. I've come up with a chart that has proven to be over 98% accurate for movement and well over 99% accurate for control, but I can't find anything that comes that close for stuff :-/.

	contact	power	eye	movemnt	control     stuff
rating	avg	hr	bb	hra	bba	k
1	0.100	0	10	35	87	18
2	0.103	1	11	34	86	19
3	0.107	1	12	34	86	21
4	0.110	1	13	34	85	22
5	0.114	2	14	33	84	24
6	0.117	2	14	33	83	26
7	0.121	2	15	33	83	27
8	0.124	3	16	32	82	29
9	0.127	3	17	32	81	30
10	0.131	3	18	32	80	32
11	0.134	4	19	31	79	33
12	0.138	4	20	31	79	35
13	0.141	4	21	31	78	37
14	0.145	4	22	30	77	38
15	0.148	5	23	30	76	40
16	0.151	5	23	30	76	41
17	0.155	5	24	29	75	43
18	0.158	6	25	29	74	44
19	0.162	6	26	29	73	46
20	0.165	6	27	28	72	47
21	0.168	7	28	28	72	49
22	0.172	7	29	28	71	51
23	0.175	7	30	27	70	52
24	0.179	8	31	27	69	54
25	0.182	8	32	27	69	55
26	0.186	8	32	26	68	57
27	0.189	9	33	26	67	58
28	0.192	9	34	26	66	60
29	0.196	9	35	25	65	62
30	0.199	10	36	25	65	63
31	0.203	10	37	25	64	65
32	0.206	10	38	24	63	66
33	0.210	11	39	24	62	68
34	0.213	11	40	24	62	69
35	0.216	11	41	23	61	71
36	0.220	12	41	23	60	72
37	0.223	12	42	23	59	74
38	0.227	12	43	22	58	76
39	0.230	12	44	22	58	77
40	0.234	13	45	22	57	79
41	0.237	13	46	21	56	80
42	0.240	13	47	21	55	82
43	0.244	14	48	21	55	83
44	0.247	14	49	20	54	85
45	0.251	14	50	20	53	87
46	0.254	15	50	20	52	88
47	0.258	15	51	19	51	90
48	0.261	15	52	19	51	91
49	0.264	16	53	19	50	93
50	0.268	16	54	18	49	94
51	0.271	17	55	18	48	96
52	0.273	17	56	18	48	97
53	0.274	18	57	17	47	99
54	0.276	18	58	17	46	101
55	0.278	19	59	17	45	102
56	0.280	19	59	16	44	104
57	0.282	20	60	16	44	105
58	0.284	20	61	16	43	107
59	0.285	21	62	15	42	108
60	0.287	22	63	15	41	110
61	0.289	22	64	15	41	112
62	0.291	23	65	14	40	113
63	0.293	23	66	14	39	115
64	0.294	24	67	14	38	116
65	0.296	24	68	13	37	118
66	0.298	25	68	13	37	119
67	0.300	25	69	13	36	121
68	0.302	26	70	12	35	123
69	0.304	27	71	12	34	124
70	0.305	27	72	11	34	126
71	0.307	28	73	11	33	127
72	0.309	28	74	11	32	129
73	0.311	29	75	10	31	130
74	0.313	29	76	10	30	132
75	0.314	30	77	10	30	133
76	0.316	30	77	9	29	135
77	0.318	31	78	9	28	137
78	0.320	32	79	9	27	138
79	0.322	32	80	8	27	140
80	0.324	33	81	8	26	141
81	0.325	33	82	8	25	143
82	0.327	34	83	7	24	144
83	0.329	34	84	7	23	146
84	0.331	35	85	7	23	148
85	0.333	35	86	6	22	149
86	0.334	36	86	6	21	151
87	0.336	37	87	6	20	152
88	0.338	37	88	5	20	154
89	0.340	38	89	5	19	155
90	0.342	38	90	5	18	157
91	0.344	39	91	4	17	158
92	0.345	39	92	4	16	160
93	0.347	40	93	4	16	162
94	0.349	40	94	3	15	163
95	0.351	41	95	3	14	165
96	0.353	42	95	3	13	166
97	0.354	42	96	2	13	168
98	0.356	43	97	2	12	169
99	0.358	43	98	2	11	171
100	0.360	44	99	1	10	173
101	0.362	44	100	1	9	174
102	0.364	45	101	1	9	176
103	0.365	45	102	0	8	177
104	0.367	46	103	0	7	179
105	0.369	47	104		6	180
106	0.371	47	104		6	182
107	0.373	48	105		5	183
108	0.374	48	106		4	185
109	0.376	49	107		3	187
110	0.378	49	108		2	188
111	0.380	50	109		2	190
112	0.382	50	110		1	191
113	0.384	51	111		0	193
114	0.385	52	112			194
115	0.387	52	113			196
116	0.389	53	113			198
117	0.391	53	114			199
118	0.393	54	115			201
119	0.394	54	116			202
120	0.396	55	117			204
121	0.398	55	118			205
122	0.400	56	119			207
123	0.402	57	120			208
124	0.404	57	121			210
125	0.405	58	122			212
126	0.407	58	122			213
127	0.409	59	123			215
128	0.411	59	124			216
129	0.413	60	125			218
130	0.414	60	126			219
131	0.416	61	127			221
132	0.418	62	128			223
133	0.420	62	129			224
134	0.422	63	130			226
135	0.424	63	131			227
136	0.425	64	131			229
137	0.427	64	132			230
138	0.429	65	133			232
139	0.431	65	134			234
140	0.433	66	135			235
141	0.434	67	136			237
142	0.436	67	137			238
143	0.438	68	138			240
144	0.440	68	139			241
145	0.442	69	140			243
146	0.444	69	140			244
147	0.445	70	141			246
148	0.447	70	142			248
149	0.449	71	143			249
150	0.451	72	144			251
151	0.453	72	145			252
152	0.455	73	146			254
153	0.456	73	147			255
154	0.458	74	148			257
155	0.460	74	149			259
156	0.462	75	149			260
157	0.464	75	150			262
158	0.465	76	151			263
159	0.467	77	152			265
160	0.469	77	153			266
161	0.471	78	154			268
162	0.473	78	155			269
163	0.475	79	156			271
164	0.476	79	157			273
165	0.478	80	158			274
166	0.480	80	158			276
167	0.482	81	159			277
168	0.484	82	160			279
169	0.485	82	161			280
170	0.487	83	162			282
171	0.489	83	163			284
172	0.491	84	164			285
173	0.493	84	165			287
174	0.495	85	166			288
175	0.496	85	167			290
176	0.498	86	167			291
177	0.500	87	168			293
178	0.502	87	169			294
179	0.504	88	170			296
180	0.505	88	171			298
181	0.507	89	172			299
182	0.509	89	173			301
183	0.511	90	174			302
184	0.513	90	175			304
185	0.515	91	176			305
186	0.516	92	176			307
187	0.518	92	177			309
188	0.520	93	178			310
189	0.522	93	179			312
190	0.524	94	180			313
191	0.525	94	181			315
192	0.527	95	182			316
193	0.529	95	183			318
194	0.531	96	184			320
195	0.533	97	185			321
196	0.535	97	185			323
197	0.536	98	186			324
198	0.538	98	187			326
199	0.540	99	188			327
200	0.542	99	189			329
201	0.544	100	190			330
202	0.545	100	191			332
203	0.547	101	192			334
204	0.549	102	193			335
205	0.551	102	194			337
206	0.553	103	194			338
207	0.555	103	195			340
208	0.556	104	196			341
209	0.558	104	197			343
210	0.560	105	198			345
211	0.562	105	199			346
212	0.564	106	200			348
213	0.565	107	201			349
214	0.567	107	202			351
215	0.569	108	203			352
216	0.571	108	203			354
217	0.573	109	204			355
218	0.575	109	205			357
219	0.576	110	206			359
220	0.578	110	207			360
221	0.580	111	208			362
222	0.582	112	209			363
223	0.584	112	210			365
224	0.585	113	211			366
225	0.587	113	212			368
226	0.589	114	212			370
227	0.591	114	213			371
228	0.593	115	214			373
229	0.595	115	215			374
230	0.596	116	216			376
231	0.598	117	217			377
232	0.600	117	218			379
233	0.602	118	219			380
234	0.604	118	220			382
235	0.605	119	221			384
236	0.607	119	221			385
237	0.609	120	222			387
238	0.611	120	223			388
239	0.613	121	224			390
240	0.615	122	225			391
241	0.616	122	226			393
242	0.618	123	227			395
243	0.620	123	228			396
244	0.622	124	229			398
245	0.624	124	230			399
246	0.625	125	230			401
247	0.627	125	231			402
248	0.629	126	232			404
249	0.631	127	233			405
250	0.633	127	234			407
251	0.635	128	235			409
252	0.636	128	236			410
253	0.638	129	237			412
254	0.640	129	238			413

I hope someone can find the correlation for stuff between K's, BB's, and HR's, because while it correlates OK with K's, it's not perfectly linear (i.e. pitchers with better control will have better stuff than pitchers with poor control and the same amount of strikeouts).

[darrylr]

Interesting stuff..

Must be based on a certain # of Plate Appearances or something?

-Darryl

[Specs]

yeah... 550 plate appearances for hitters and 550 batters faced for pitchers

[Jayzone]

Great stuff!

Couple of questions though. I assume this table is generated under the default league total setting? My understanding of the rating/stat relationship is that rating level/distribution remains the same regardless of the era (so average rating is close to 50 or so) and the league total determines the actual stat generation. (ie. 50 power rating generates 20HR in modern era and 50 power rating generates 10Hr in the deadball era or something like that) Also, how about the opposition rating? I mean that your table have contact rating of 50 generates 0.268, but under what kind of opposition (rating of pitchers) is this relationship generated? (ie. average rating of 50 or something)

Also, I want to point out that velocity rating affects strikeout stat as well (albit slightly). This might be another reason that strikeout and stuff doesn't corrleates well. Well, unless your experiment is done under controlled enviroment including velocity (ie. velocity rating is made indentical throughout the league) then velociy rating won't really matter in this case.

As for the correlation stuff, I do have the data on correlation between ratings (the data in my rating level study thread), but not between rating and stat. So, I guess what I have is not really what you want.

Anyway, great stuff. You must have invested a great deal of time into this. Sincere thanks. Keep up the good work!

[Jayzone]

By the way, did you compare your result to Henry's table and Ankit's formulas? (Batter rating only though) Thanks again.

[darrylr]

Unless it was changed in 6.02 or 6.02a, Velocity has absolute zero effect on any stats. I did multiple tests with velocity of 1 compared to velocity of 100 and there was no effect at all.

-Darryl

[Henry]

Velocity affects development.

[Jayzone]

Really? Henry (and others) has said the answer that velocity has influence on strikeout repeatively, so the word has been imprinted into my brain. Well, if velocity has no bearing at all then you should inform the "officials". Or better yet, share your test results. Thanks.

[Jayzone]

Ok, so velocity has zero bearing on stat generation but has some effect on development. Is this correct? This contradicts to my memory though.... (ah, my memory is failing...)

[darrylr]

They already know about it. I had posted test results before. Here is one of the threads:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...hlight=darrylr

-Darryl

[Henry]

Pitchers with high velocity have a bigger chance to improve talent levels (stuff + movement), and develop faster in the stuff department.

[Jayzone]

Henry,

By the way, did you take a look at my rating correlation data? If yes, do you think it's a good measurement/indicator on the development effect of velocity? From my result, it seems the development effect is mainly for stuff (if the effect does exists) and the effect on movement is minimal to the point of neglectable.

[Jayzone]

darrylr,

I missed that thread. Sorry. Good stuff thogh. Thanks.

[Henry]

Originally posted by Jayzone
Henry,

By the way, did you take a look at my rating correlation data? If yes, do you think it's a good measurement/indicator on the development effect of velocity? From my result, it seems the development effect is mainly for stuff (if the effect does exists) and the effect on movement is minimal to the point of neglectable.

Haven't looked in detail yet - but will. PC was down yesterday, and between the board, the slowdown issue, and my grandaughter's dance recital tonight, I'm thinking Sat or Sun before I can get more than 5 minutes to myself LOL. That's if I don't try and sleep all weekend

[Jayzone]

Get some rest, Henry. We need you here.
Sounds like a good life though.

[Specs]

Originally posted by Jayzone
By the way, did you compare your result to Henry's table and Ankit's formulas? (Batter rating only though) Thanks again.

No. My method was to import several historical teams for various reasons (200 pitcher seasons total from 1964-1999). I imported eight teams from each era (1964-1977 and 1980-1999), it was 1960-1979 and 1980-present, but those were the years it ended up being. After simming a year under league totals I compared the actual totals to the generated numbers and the simmed totals, then created an xy plot with a trendline and got the equation from that.

[Specs]

A few interesting things importing historically.

1. While it did not seem to matter from what year I imported, the expected walks for NL pitchers were, for the most part, higher relative to their actual walks than AL pitchers.

2. There was no rhyme or reason as to what type of players imported with screwy ratings, other than that almost all pitchers from the 1994 Rockies imported with better movement ratings than their home run totals would allow. I don't think OOTP takes run environment into consideration, although the 1966 Dodgers had bad movement ratings relative to their home run totals.

3. The hitter results were almost dead-on. They seem to be barely dependent on other ratings whatsoever, whereas there seems to be some connection, however small, between all of the pitching ratings, which is quite annoying.

4. The goal of this study was to be able to predict a runs created or runs saved total for the career of a prospect, and therefore a standard impact rating.

5. Endurance is screwy as all get out. I can't figure it out at all.