Ratings and their influence on stats

Matteo · 04-24-2004, 02:53 AM

I am a bit confused by the whole discussion about DIPS. Although I understand the basics I haven't found a thread that really explains the influence of certain ratings on stats.

The most puzzling is the correlation of the batters rating to avoid K's, and his contact rating.

It is my understanding that, contrary to V5, now it is first determined whether a batter is K'd or makes contact, instead of V5 where it was first determined "out or no-out", and then the reason....

Assume a player is very bad in avoiding Ks, but has a high contact rating.... how is that possible....because he Ks a lot, he shouldn't have a high BA.

This question might have been raised b4, so I would be more then happy if one can direct me to a thread where this is answered!

Henry · 04-24-2004, 07:45 AM

Pitcher has control over...
1. Strikeouts (compared to batter K rating)
2. Walks (compared to batter BB rating)
3. Homeruns (compared to batter HR rating)

If none of the above happens in an At Bat, then...

Batter/Fielders have control over...
4. Fly outs
5. Ground Outs
6. Singles
7. Doubles
8. Triples

Henry

Matteo · 04-24-2004, 11:03 AM

Thank you Henry...

so if I understand it right...

Sequence 1:

1a) a pitcher with a low avoiding BB rating will walk a batter with a high BB rating
1b) a batter with a low BB rating will not be walked by a pitcher with a high avoiding BB rating

2a) a pitcher with a high avoiding K rating will K a batter with a low K rating
2b) a batter with a high K rating will not be K'ed by a pitcher with a low avoiding K rating

3a) a pitcher with a high avoiding HR rating will not give up a HR to a batter with a low HR rating
3b) a pitcher with a low avoiding HR rating will give up a HR to a batter with a high HR rating

These are off course all extremes of a spectrum, but first it is decided whether there is a K, BB or HR.

Sequence 2:

Then, if it is neither a K, BB or HR there is a ball in play that is NOT a HR. In sequence 2 it is assumed the event is out of the pitchers control (I know this is a discussion itself, but it doesn't interest me, what interests me is how the v6 engine works

)

A player with a high contact ratings is able to get a lot of singles (defense, ballparks, wheather influence this as well of course, but we assume this is fixed for this purpose).

Gap power is the amount of doubles a player is is able to hit. Now my question is whether those rating needs to be combined. For instance, lets compare two players:

Player 1: Contact 70, Gap Power 100
Player 2: Contact 50, Gap Power 100

Will Player 1 hit as many doubles as player 2, or is it structured in such a way that Gap Power determines what amount of hits are doubles? It is also my understanding that speed and running instincts have some influences whether a player hits a double (and triple for that matter)

Player 1: Contact 50, Gap Power 100, Speed 5, RI 5
Player 2: Contact 50, Gap Power 100, Speed 1, RI 1

Will player 2 hit as many doubles / triples as player 1?

Now comes the big question:

In v5 a players BA was solely dependent from his Batting Average rating (?) and it was first determined the final outcome (out or not out) anfd then the event was reconstructed based on a batters an pitchers rating.

Based on the 2 sequences I understand from your post Henry, lets compare these two players:

Player 1: Contact 50, Avoiding Ks 100
Player 2: Contact 50, Avoiding Ks 50

If I understand you right, Player 2 will have a lower batting average than player 1. This means that the avoiding K rating has a lot more importance than in V5. Does this implicates that when transfering from v5 players with a high contact rating will also get an increase in there avoiding K rating?

Analogue, it means that the K rating for pitchers is also more important in v6 than it was in v5, since it will now affect his WHIP etc. Is this a fair statement?

Again, this is how I understand the new engine. I believe this is a tremendous step in the right direction and I am actually pretty amazed how fast this was implemented (considering the programming timeframe). I would be very happy if we get reliable stats from this engine already in v6.

MidnightPyro · 04-24-2004, 08:38 PM

I'd also like to know about this. Especially how pitcher ratings like Movement, Control, and "Stuff" influence K's, BB's, and HR's.

Da Cubs · 04-24-2004, 08:48 PM

My feeling is alot depends on many different factors that you didn't bring up. Fielding for one. Luck for another. I'd like to think that just because you "see" the ratings that doesn't mean that that is the absolute truth. If you knew that Sammy Sosa was going to hit 50 homers a year, wouldn't that make the game a little "predictable"?

04-24-2004, 02:53 AM	#1
Matteo Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL Posts: 473	Ratings and their influence on stats I am a bit confused by the whole discussion about DIPS. Although I understand the basics I haven't found a thread that really explains the influence of certain ratings on stats. The most puzzling is the correlation of the batters rating to avoid K's, and his contact rating. It is my understanding that, contrary to V5, now it is first determined whether a batter is K'd or makes contact, instead of V5 where it was first determined "out or no-out", and then the reason.... Assume a player is very bad in avoiding Ks, but has a high contact rating.... how is that possible....because he Ks a lot, he shouldn't have a high BA. This question might have been raised b4, so I would be more then happy if one can direct me to a thread where this is answered! __________________ ESPN The Show live chat during 2004 ALCS: Julie (Boston): Do you think Jeter does the fist pump everytime he disappoints a woman in bed? Or does he save it for when he's with A-Rod? Bill Simmons: Whoops - I didn't mean to post that. Really, I didn't.

04-24-2004, 11:03 AM	#3
Matteo Major Leagues Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL Posts: 473	Thank you Henry... so if I understand it right... Sequence 1: 1a) a pitcher with a low avoiding BB rating will walk a batter with a high BB rating 1b) a batter with a low BB rating will not be walked by a pitcher with a high avoiding BB rating 2a) a pitcher with a high avoiding K rating will K a batter with a low K rating 2b) a batter with a high K rating will not be K'ed by a pitcher with a low avoiding K rating 3a) a pitcher with a high avoiding HR rating will not give up a HR to a batter with a low HR rating 3b) a pitcher with a low avoiding HR rating will give up a HR to a batter with a high HR rating These are off course all extremes of a spectrum, but first it is decided whether there is a K, BB or HR. Sequence 2: Then, if it is neither a K, BB or HR there is a ball in play that is NOT a HR. In sequence 2 it is assumed the event is out of the pitchers control (I know this is a discussion itself, but it doesn't interest me, what interests me is how the v6 engine works ) A player with a high contact ratings is able to get a lot of singles (defense, ballparks, wheather influence this as well of course, but we assume this is fixed for this purpose). Gap power is the amount of doubles a player is is able to hit. Now my question is whether those rating needs to be combined. For instance, lets compare two players: Player 1: Contact 70, Gap Power 100 Player 2: Contact 50, Gap Power 100 Will Player 1 hit as many doubles as player 2, or is it structured in such a way that Gap Power determines what amount of hits are doubles? It is also my understanding that speed and running instincts have some influences whether a player hits a double (and triple for that matter) Player 1: Contact 50, Gap Power 100, Speed 5, RI 5 Player 2: Contact 50, Gap Power 100, Speed 1, RI 1 Will player 2 hit as many doubles / triples as player 1? Now comes the big question: In v5 a players BA was solely dependent from his Batting Average rating (?) and it was first determined the final outcome (out or not out) anfd then the event was reconstructed based on a batters an pitchers rating. Based on the 2 sequences I understand from your post Henry, lets compare these two players: Player 1: Contact 50, Avoiding Ks 100 Player 2: Contact 50, Avoiding Ks 50 If I understand you right, Player 2 will have a lower batting average than player 1. This means that the avoiding K rating has a lot more importance than in V5. Does this implicates that when transfering from v5 players with a high contact rating will also get an increase in there avoiding K rating? Analogue, it means that the K rating for pitchers is also more important in v6 than it was in v5, since it will now affect his WHIP etc. Is this a fair statement? Again, this is how I understand the new engine. I believe this is a tremendous step in the right direction and I am actually pretty amazed how fast this was implemented (considering the programming timeframe). I would be very happy if we get reliable stats from this engine already in v6. __________________ ESPN The Show live chat during 2004 ALCS: Julie (Boston): Do you think Jeter does the fist pump everytime he disappoints a woman in bed? Or does he save it for when he's with A-Rod? Bill Simmons: Whoops - I didn't mean to post that. Really, I didn't.

04-24-2004, 07:45 AM	#2
Henry Hall of Fame Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 6,498	Pitcher has control over... 1. Strikeouts (compared to batter K rating) 2. Walks (compared to batter BB rating) 3. Homeruns (compared to batter HR rating) If none of the above happens in an At Bat, then... Batter/Fielders have control over... 4. Fly outs 5. Ground Outs 6. Singles 7. Doubles 8. Triples Henry

04-24-2004, 08:38 PM	#4
MidnightPyro Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 228	I'd also like to know about this. Especially how pitcher ratings like Movement, Control, and "Stuff" influence K's, BB's, and HR's.

04-24-2004, 08:48 PM	#5
Da Cubs Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Midwest Posts: 31	My feeling is alot depends on many different factors that you didn't bring up. Fielding for one. Luck for another. I'd like to think that just because you "see" the ratings that doesn't mean that that is the absolute truth. If you knew that Sammy Sosa was going to hit 50 homers a year, wouldn't that make the game a little "predictable"?