Must adjust career decline

[Brooklyn]

I went from a triple crown winning player in my 14th year to a player who barely hit 300 my 15th, to a 16th year where I played in only 18 games until I was released. My totals declined much too rapidly. I was figuring on at least a 20 year career, and I only accomplished 16. 14th season a triple crown, to 16 seasons and retired. That is way too fast a decline.

[Steve Kuffrey]

If this happens EVERY time it may need to be adjusted, but this is possible.

[cameronbelldina]

i agree you cant go by a single career for consideration of adjustment samples of multiple careers must be looked at, judging by one outcome of a career is by far biased, more than one career should be looked at.

[BMW]

I addressed this before, you can read the rest here: http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...threadid=52149

...In one OOTP league that I'm checking, you can take Rafael Palmiero for an example. He hit 38 HR in the MLB in 2003, and is still going strong.

Because he was 38 years old in 2003, in OOTP, he hit .230 with 13 HR. He then sat around the entire 2004 season without a job before retiring at the beginning of 2005.

But he's not alone. Checking the Hall of Fame in OOTP, how many players made it past 37-38? Here are the last productive years of all the OOTP HOF players:

McGriff - 39 (1 AB as a 40 year old)
Randy Johnson - 38
Maddux - 37 (Pitched 10 innings after 2003 season)
Palmiero - 38
Clemens - 40
Bonds - 39 (24 career HR after 2003)
Glavine - 37
Alomar - 37
Mariano Rivera - 35
Hoffman - 37
Sosa - 37
Percival - 37
Nenn - 37
Griffey - 37
Larry Walker - 40
Juan Gonzalez - 37
Pedro Martinez - 36
Manny Ramirez - 37
Helton - 36
Delgado - 38

Now I'll admit that yes, OOTP does have a fairly accurate model for declining player performance.

But I will reiterate: the engine can't accurately simulate Pete Rose, Nolan Ryan, Satchel Paige, Warren Spahn, Cap Anson or any number of baseball stars who proved that you could still be competitive in the big leagues going in to your early-to-mid 40s.

Those players do exist, but as you can see from the above list of OOTP Hall of Famers (the best players OOTP produced over a 10 year period) they do NOT exist in OOTP.

Take the last few BBWAA Hall of Fame inductees and what year their last effective (at least arguably average for their position at the time) season was.

Paul Molitor - 41
Dennis Eckersley - 43
Eddie Murray - 40
Gary Carter - 34
Ozzie Smith - 38
Dave Winfield - 42
Kirby Puckett - 34
Carlton Fisk - 43
Tony Perez - 39
Nolan Ryan - 45
George Brett - 40
Robin Yount - 37
Don Sutton - 41
Phil Niekro - 46
Mike Schmidt - 38
Steve Carlton - 39
Reggie Jackson - 40
Tom Seaver - 41
Rollie Fingers - 37
Rod Carew - 39
Gaylord Perry - 43
Ferguson Jenkins - 40
Jim Palmer - 36
Joe Morgan - 40
Johnny Bench - 35
Carl Yastremski - 43


So as you can see, the real list has a lot more variation than the OOTP one. In the real HOF list, 38 years old isn't the death nell that it is in OOTP. 4 of 20 players played well past 37-38 in OOTP, and 3 of those started at 38 or older in their first OOTP simmed season.

In the MLB, 18 of 26 played well past the 37-38 year old line. A number of those, like Eck, Fisk, Ryan, Niekro, Perry and Yastremski had half a decade or more of productive seasons left in them. Never mind the fact that most of them weren't MVP or CY type seasons, because we're comparing them with the OOTP players who were outright released and retired.

[RandyWolf43]

Satchel Paige


Early to mid 40's? Didnt he play when he was 59? Granted, I wasn't around when he was pitching, but nonetheless he was probably somewhat effective to be pitching at such an old age.

And what about Jesse Orosco. He's 46, but he looks like hes 66.

[crict]

My character had a ,815 OPS at age 40, and as I'll start my age 41 season, he'll be for the first time a platoon player.

I did use a quite intensive workout that leave me pretty tired during the season, but the ratings dropped quite slowly, from 80s to 60s in about 5 years. The OPS decline was really gradual, from about 950 to 800 in those years.

This is cool, I started as a contact hitter with good on-base skills and no power, then developped some power in the early 30s to become a star.

And, somehow, with only 2 all-star games apperances, I'm only 100 hits away from 3,000.

[Ragin Cajun]

I have to agree. I've had many players just blow up in one year. On the other hand, I've also had the "auto retire" happen. If I am the player shouldn't I control when I retire? Assuming of course you have a contract. Take a look at this guy... just got retired this morning. Coming off a triple crown winning season and check those ratings...his first hits in ratings. I had signed a 2 year extention at the beginning of that last season, click to end the season...and BAM! Retired by the machine. Life sucks.

[BMW]

I've heard of that problem a few times of players suddenly retiring with no control given to you. I haven't had that happen yet with any of my players. In fact, I once had a pitcher who lasted in the majors until 44 years old. But that was using books voraciously over the last 10 years of my career, learning every pitch along the way and working out of Dodger Stadium.

The other 800 players in the game can't do that though.

I ran a quick sim in OOTP using Satchel Paige. Satchel obviously isn't a normal player. Conversly, the last time the major leagues lacked a 40 year old player was 1900. (Chief Zimmer was the oldest at 39.)

My prediction was that Paige, who was 41 in 1948, would finish his Major League career in OOTP by 1949. In reality, he pitched in the majors reguarly until 1954, and was arguably the best pitcher on the Brown's staff from 1951-1953.

He actually didn't last the season. His Runs Against rating was 8 when he started the season, and he was a 5-Star middle reliever. He was used very sparingly (25.1 innings in the majors) before being shipped to the minors before the end of the year. Over the one season, his Runs Against Rating had dropped to 2 and he was rated at 1 and 1/2-Stars.

Again, my point isn't that I think that every OOTP player should hang around and play effectively into their 40s. But barring books, the ITP and OOTP engines cannot sim these the older guys. Sure you may have a guy who puts up a good year at 40, but I imagine it's impossible for the aging algorithms to to naturally allow Nolan Ryan (decent years at 40-45) or even Dave Winfield (decent years at 40 - 42) to exist.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally posted by RandyWolf43
Satchel Paige


Early to mid 40's? Didnt he play when he was 59?

Only because he was brought back for a couple of innings in order to qualify for his MLB pension.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally posted by BMW
Again, my point isn't that I think that every OOTP player should hang around and play effectively into their 40s. But barring books, the ITP and OOTP engines cannot sim these the older guys. Sure you may have a guy who puts up a good year at 40, but I imagine it's impossible for the aging algorithms to to naturally allow Nolan Ryan (decent years at 40-45) or even Dave Winfield (decent years at 40 - 42) to exist.

This is one area where Markus should take a cue from the guys behind Baseball Mogul. Mogul has mandatory retirement at (IIRC) 45. I haven't seen many superstars in Mogul at that age but I have seen some guys like the Niekro brothers who could still be effective if given the chance.