My 2004 Hall of Fame ballot

[sixto]

http://premium.baseballprospectus.co...articleid=2470

Bert Blyleven. Although statheads like to think that seeing through W-L records is a piece of cake, there is some logic in the stubbornness of those who continue to stick with it as a measure of success. Dontrelle Willis’ 14-6 record, compared to Brandon Webb’s 10-9, combined with Willis’ showmanship, made him an easy choice for the voters. MLB loved it as well. Extricating W-L will be a challenge for years to come.

Blyleven was a showman, or at least a notorious cut-up if not Al Hrabosky on the mound, and yet that cuts him no slack with the HOF voters. Blyleven’s 287 wins came by way of a lot of losses, 250, and yet no fewer than 7 of the 10 most similar pitchers in history are HOFers, including the incredibly similar Gaylord Perry and, yes, Don Sutton.

A two-time all-star who only led the league in strikeouts once, in 1985 with 206, yet fifth all time in strikeouts, Blyleven’s election to the real HOF will come only with complete turnover in the voters or perhaps if he is struck by a bout of glaucoma. His ERA+ soars compared to HOFers Don Sutton, Jim Bunning, Red Ruffing, just to name a few, and even one of Bill James’ favorites, Robin Roberts. Blyleven’s failure to gain election is only paving the way for Kevin Brown (131) and John Smoltz (132) not to make it. Despite never having been a superstar, his career numbers merit inclusion.

Dennis Eckersley. I admit it: Eck for me is a sentimental pick. For posting a season of 606 ERA+, even as a reliever (Gibson and Big Train only managed the mid 250s, although the illustrious Reds reliever of the 80s, Rob Murphy, did get a 542 in 1986; Smoltz 2003 “just” 371), for resurrecting himself, for being funny and odd, he gets my pick. I don’t think he belongs, although cases could be made. A note about Gossage, Sutter and Lee Smith: I am not an advocate of closers in the HOF. Just a bias I live with. If any closers belong, though, these are the four. Maybe they can share a plaque with Rollie Fingers.

Poor Dale Murphy. Eric Davis was one of the hitters I always feared seeing come to the plate, but he’s no HOFer. I always feared Darryl Strawberry but he’s got too much baggage. Of all the people who will never make the HOF, Straw is the one that saddens me the most because he could have been Barry Bonds.

But no batter instilled the fear in me, back when baseball was my life 24 hours a day, like Dale Murphy. The Murph should have retired on top and not gone for 400 HR, which I guess he thought made the HOF a lock. Even though it clearly no longer is, did voters grandfather the old 400 barrier in for Murph? Earned two well-deserved MVPs, played well enough to take home at least 3 others; inexplicably, in 1987 Dawson’s 49 HR got him MVP for a crappy Cubs team, but Murph’s 44 got him, um, yeah, eleventh place, after HoJo and the great Tim Wallach. At least he got more votes than Billy Doran.

From age 28-35, Dale Murphy was on a Reggie Jackson career trajectory. It took just two years for that to deteriorate to where Joe Carter is his most similar player and only Duke Snider in his top 10 is a HOFer. If Blyleven should be in because of his aggregate, Murphy should be in for his peak. He was one of the 80s most memorable and dominating players.

Jim Rice. I am just terribly torn about Jim Rice. Lot of arguments against him. This year I’m giving him the vote.

Juan Samuel. Token Phillie pick. Hard to believe Sammy only played in Philly for 6 ½ years. Obviously not a HOFer.

Ryne Sandberg. Obvious enough.

Alan Trammell. Some day Barry Larkin and Craig Biggio will be in, while Trammell will be remembered as much as a hapless manager as a bulwark SS. Being associated with modern-era Detroit should not be a reason to keep someone out of the HOF. Will be sad to see Concepcion continually get more support. Worthwhile noting that more Concepcion-similar players are in the HOF (3) than Trammell-like (one, Pee Wee Reese, who is on both lists). Interestingly, Trammell is similar to Concepcion, but Concepcion is not similar to Trammell. What that tells us, as far as I can tell, is that few players in baseball history played as long, putting up awful offensive numbers, as Dave Concepcion.

Not in:

Andre Dawson. [JaysonStark] What the Hawk brought to the table was attitude. Yeah he was gruff, yeah he played on some crummy teams, and maybe he didn’t take enough pitches or maybe he got mysteriously bulky in 1987. Maybe he never won anything important, maybe he never reached base, but when you had Andre Dawson in your clubhouse, you could always count on one thing: that gruff attitude. Andre Dawson was a gamer pure and simple. In this day of $25 million salaries, maybe somebody should take a page from Dawson’s 1987 blank-check playbook. Who cares about the money, let’s get out there and lose some ballgames.[/JaysonStark]

Paul Molitor. Personally I consider Molitor to be one of the most overrated players in history, possibly the most overrated. But his 3319 hits must be reckoned with. It’s gumption to leave him off the ballot, but in this case I have gumption.

Mattingly/Hernandez. Charter members of the Hall of the Pretty Good. Sorry boys. The New York factor made you famous, and staying in the public eye is smart, but you just don’t belong.

Fernando Valenzuela. Officially, pitched from age 19 to 36. When it’s finally discovered that he actually pitched from age 31 to 48, will that make him more remarkable?

[Brick]

I am a Trammell fan. I'd stack up Yount-Ripken-Trammell against Rodriguez-Garciaparra-Jeter anyday.

I looked back at the shortstops of 1984 and realized the 4th best in the AL was Julio Franco - and he's still playing! Do you think in 2025, after A-Rod, Nomar, Derek and Tejada have retired someone under the radar like Furcal will still be playing?

[LivnLegend]

Mine:

Bert Blyleven
Paul Molitor
Dennis Eckersley
Steve Garvey

If you are going to force me to vote for one of the three closers Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, or Bruce Sutter, I'll take Sutter who really deserves it more than the already enshrined Rollie Fingers.

[fat dude]

What is your reasoning to make Rice questionable? You're not a writer who was offended by Rice. You should be able to simply look at his stats and realize that he was a tremendous hitter. Certainly dominent in his time. There are much less deserving players already in.

[dougaiton]

I'd tried to construct as well-thought out and constructed response as you have, but I don't think I could. I agree entirely with Blyleven - he deserves it, in my mind. Up to his 35th birthday, his career ERA was scraping 3. For a guy who had 3 full years in a career spanning 22 seasons that couldn't be considered good compared with the league average (most of them considerably better), and all of them coming after his 35th birthday, is pretty amazing.

[LivnLegend]

Originally posted by dougaiton
I'd tried to construct as well-thought out and constructed response as you have, but I don't think I could.

There are two baseball conversations/arguments I try and stay away from:

- Does [fill in the blank] belong in the Hall of Fame?

- Should Rose be banned from baseball?

I find it best to speak your piece and get out. No one ever changes their minds after engaging in these arguments and no one really knows the real answer anyway.

My first instinct was to ask Sixto about his curious Sandberg comment ("Obvious enough") because my thought is Sandberg is obviously not Hall of Fame worthy. But it's a pointless argument and I am quite sure we could spend 3 pages arguing his merits (or lack of) without either of us changing our minds or without influencing the outcome of the true vote. See? Pointless.

[sixto]

Originally posted by LivnLegend
My first instinct was to ask Sixto about his curious Sandberg comment ("Obvious enough") because my thought is Sandberg is obviously not Hall of Fame worthy.

1) Was a long thread already
2) I had nothing really positive to write
3) Sandberg will get in, why argue with it
4) Nice similarity score resume

Similar Batters
Lou Whitaker (900)
Joe Torre (874)
Alan Trammell (857)
Craig Biggio (850)
Roberto Alomar (845)
Ken Boyer (845)
Barry Larkin (842)
Steve Finley (838)
Bobby Doerr (834) *
Julio Franco (833)

To Fat Dude: We had the same argument about Rice last year when I posted an article that probably read very much like this one. I don't know if I had a better answer then.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Mine:

Bert Blyleven
Paul Molitor
Ryne Sandberg
Alan Trammell

I have four that I think are borderline:

Dennis Eckersley
Tommy John
Dale Murphy
Jim Rice

Of those four, John would be my sentimental pick - he was my dad's favorite pitcher..... so I'll take him, even though the other three might have slightly better arguments.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by fat dude
There are much less deserving players already in.

I have never understood this logic. Just because a player is better than someone in the HOF does not make him a HOF'er. There are a lot of players in the HOF who shouldn't be.

If the criteria was to enshrine every player who is better than the worst player in the HOF, then the place would be packed and the distinction meaningless. There have been many mistakes made over the years, but that does not give the current generation of voters license to make further errors.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Originally posted by Hammer755
I have never understood this logic. Just because a player is better than someone in the HOF does not make him a HOF'er. There are a lot of players in the HOF who shouldn't be.

Good point. If every player better than George Kelly and Tommy McCarthy was let in, 3/4 of the people on this year's ballot would make it.

[sixto]

Hey! Look who pops up in George Kelly's similarity scores:

Similar Batters
Bob Watson (929)
Frank McCormick (918)
Bill White (899)
Carl Furillo (898)
Tony Oliva (892)
Bob Meusel (891)
Gus Bell (887)
Rico Carty (883)
Bing Miller (882)
Jeff Conine (881)

Hall baby!!111!

[KurtBevacqua]

My picks

Right Now:
Blyleven
Rich Gossage (where's the love for the most dominant reliever I ever saw?)
Ryne Sandberg (might have been first year pick if not for that ill-fated comeback that brought down his rep)

Next Year
Eck (one of my favs, but just short of being a first year guy)
Molitor (going in after a year wait is sufficient penalty for primarily being a DH)
Allen Trammell (deserves much more credit than he gets)

Maybe someday
Jim Rice (the 70's version of Albert Belle, terrifying power, but a big drop off toward the end) BTW, not Albert Belle the man, but Albert the player
Dale Murphy (2 MVP's goes a long way, but he also dropped off quite a bit and was pretty much through as a real productive player too soon).
Andre Dawson (Too bad 400 HRs doesn't go near as far as it used to with the voters, 20 years ago he'd have been a first year guy)
Ferndano (If only Tommy LaSorda hadn't killed your arm at such a young age)

[The Professor]

My picks:

Now:

- Bert Blyleven
- Rich "Goose" Gossage -- Should have gone in before Fingers, and should go in before Eck and Sutter. Wishful thinking as his votes decline each season, but the most dominating closer of his era should get his due someday.
- Alan Trammell
- Paul Molitor -- I agree with Sixto to a certain degree, but don't have the gumption to leave him off...however, I also like the year wait concept as penalty for being a DH.
- Jim Rice -- I am also torn, but I say yea! this year...

Someday:

- Dale Murphy -- Not only a nice guy, but at his peak...dominating, for that I say, someday, "yes"...
- Ryne Sandberg -- [fan bias]He is a Cub[/fan bias], and generally I agree with LL that he isn't as Hall worthy as his champions contend. However, I'm not one to bang my head against the wall...so someday, inevitably, it must be.

Wishful Thinking:

- Ted Simmons -- Fisk is in. Carter is in. Yet, Simmons isn't even eligible thanks to one of the greatest voting tragedies in HOF history. What a joke! Simba should get in someday...

[LivnLegend]

Originally posted by The Professor
- Ted Simmons -- Fisk is in. Carter is in. Yet, Simmons isn't even eligible thanks to one of the greatest voting tragedies in HOF history. What a joke! Simba should get in someday...

Rack the Prof.

Simmons' on-base percentage (.349) ranks him above Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, and Johnny Bench. His batting average also ranks above those three and I can't think of any other post-WW II catcher who hit .300 more times than Simmons until Piazza came along. Simmons was hitting for power and driving in 100 runs in an era where not many catchers were. He was durable (9th all time in games caught). He ranks in the top five among catchers in 15 hitting and fielding categories. The fact that the baseball writers failed to give Simmons enough to votes to even stay on the ballot is quite an alarming one, and a disappointing one in my opinion.

[fat dude]

I have never understood this logic. Just because a player is better than someone in the HOF does not make him a HOF'er. There are a lot of players in the HOF who shouldn't be.

If the criteria was to enshrine every player who is better than the worst player in the HOF, then the place would be packed and the distinction meaningless. There have been many mistakes made over the years, but that does not give the current generation of voters license to make further errors.
-Hammer755

Yah, I shouldn't have typed that--it did not convey the right thinking. I agree with you on this. I do think Rice's numbers merrit the vote though. Maybe I undervalue longevity.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Just wanted to chime in and agree with the Prof and the Mayor - Simmons certainly belongs in the Hall. A travesty that he's not even on the ballot.

[LivnLegend]

Make sure you save a vote for Winky:

[KurtBevacqua]

Originally posted by LivnLegend
Make sure you save a vote for Winky:

Hey for that two year stretch with the Marlins Eisenreich was every bit the pinch hitter Eric Gagne is a closer.

[sixto]

Eiiiiiiiisenreich is still beloved in this part of town here, Mayor. You haven't heard anyone say Eisenreich until you've heard Harry Kalas say it.

[Jason Moyer]

No explanations, here are my votes:

Bert Blyleven
Dennis Eckersley
Don Mattingly
Paul Molitor
Ryne Sandberg
Bruce Sutter
Alan Trammell

Jason