The Economics of Promotional Days

John Marsh · 10-26-2003, 10:39 PM

I know I have a degree in English, but can my math really be this bad?

Assume a team is averaging 25,000 fans per game. Here (I think) is the cost/benefit of promotional days. (I've left out Retro Game Days since they only happen once a year and those old-timey uniforms are really worth it.) Assume ticket prices to be $10 and Expected Attendance to be 25,000.

Caps:

Cost: $100,000
Increase Attendance: 20%
After Promotion Attendance: 30,000
Attendance Increase: 5,000.
Increased Revenue: $50,000.
Net Loss: $50,000

Bobble Heads:

Cost: $250,000
IA: 45%
APA: 36,250
AT: 11,250
IR:112,5000
Net Loss: $112,500

Bats:

Cost: $125,000
IA: 25%
APA: 31,250
AT: 6,250
IR: $62,500
Net Loss: $62,500

Gloves:

Cost: $150,000
IA: 30%
APA: 32,500
AI: 7,500
IR: $75,000
Net Loss: $75,000

If a team "took advantage" of all four promotion days for every month of the season, they would lose $1,800,000! In other words, in order for promotional days to be profitable, you have to already be drawing more than 50,000 fans per game. And since few stadiums seat much more than 50,000 people, I doubt promotional days would even be profitable then.

Now, to be sure, on some of those promotional days, the home team may win and, sometimes but not always, your fan interest will click upwards a point. I do not know the relation between fan interest and attendance, but let's assume that you take advantage of all twenty four promotional day opportunities and win half of those games. Your fan interest should (at best) increase by twelve. Over the course of the year, each click upwards in fan interest would have to increase attendance enough to offset the outlay in promotional money. You are losing $1,800,000 over the course of the year. To get it back, you would need to draw 180,000 more fans. Each one of the 12 clicks upwards, then, would have to produce an additional 15,000 fans over the course of the year. Another way to put it is that each click upward in fan interest would have to inspire approximately 185 people (15,000/81) per home game to show up when they otherwise would not have.

Their reason for doing so? They "heard" (presumably from the additional people who attended) that the team won the same day--the same day, can you believe it!?!--that the team decided to give everyone baseballs or dress up in old timey uniforms. I've got to see the team who can pull that off!

Promotional Days may (as economists like to say) in the long run be profitable as a result of their effect on fan interest, but even if they are ultimately profitable the logic seems kind of ridiculous.

Moreover, as General Manager, I resent having to schedule promotional days. Isn't that why general mangers have assistants? Don't I have better things to worry about? And why is the decision between whether to give away baseballs or baseball caps the only decision the computer deems serious enough to ask you if you really mean it? Where was the computer when I decided to take a chance on that closer in the first round of the amateur draft only to get burned a week later when his talent dropped faster than a team's attendance following a promotional day.

Now that I've flamed, someone please tell me I just forget to carry a one or mixed up thousands for ten thousands.

Skipaway · 10-26-2003, 11:14 PM

The way promotional days works in this game is indeed very odd and unrealistic.

For now, promotional days are good for leagues with low cash caps to give rid of the extra cash though.

SpaceNinja · 10-27-2003, 04:24 AM

Indeed, but I just chalk the money towards promotion days as being my entire promotion budget. It's still not realistic, but at least it justifies spending money for a chance to improve my fan interest.

paulywerner · 10-27-2003, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by SpaceNinja
but at least it justifies spending money for a chance to improve my fan interest.

This is the point of the promotion days if you ask me. If you lose a little bit of money trying to increase your fan interest, the money you will make in the long term is enough to make losing $112k for a game, because within the next few seasons, you might have non-promogames, where you can nearly double that

Henry · 10-27-2003, 10:04 AM

The "key" is choosing the right day... you have to WIN, so it's wise in a solo league to pull out all the tricks to get that win. If you do get the win, then followup economics will more than make up for the cost.

John Marsh · 10-27-2003, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Henry
The "key" is choosing the right day... you have to WIN, so it's wise in a solo league to pull out all the tricks to get that win. If you do get the win, then followup economics will more than make up for the cost.

But that's really my complaint. Something as important as fan interest should be tied to the things it already is partly tied to: won-loss record, whether a team is in playoff contention, whether it makes the playoffs, how far it makes it into the playoffs, etc. It should also be influenced, I think, by free agent signings of or trades for marquee players, like when Philadelphia signed Jim Thome.

What it should not be tied to is your ability to predict whether you'll win on a day when you hand out a bunch of free crap. It turns a realistic part of baseball--fan interest, attendance, and revenue--into essentially a throw of the dice.

I am repeatedly astounded at how well OOTP can reproduce baseball and its economics. So much so that something as "dicey" as promotional days stands out rather badly, like a player who accidentally wears a retro jersey on a non-retro day.

Henry · 10-27-2003, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by John Marsh
But that's really my complaint. Something as important as fan interest should be tied to the things it already is partly tied to: won-loss record, whether a team is in playoff contention, whether it makes the playoffs, how far it makes it into the playoffs, etc. It should also be influenced, I think, by free agent signings of or trades for marquee players, like when Philadelphia signed Jim Thome.

What it should not be tied to is your ability to predict whether you'll win on a day when you hand out a bunch of free crap. It turns a realistic part of baseball--fan interest, attendance, and revenue--into essentially a throw of the dice.

I am repeatedly astounded at how well OOTP can reproduce baseball and its economics. So much so that something as "dicey" as promotional days stands out rather badly, like a player who accidentally wears a retro jersey on a non-retro day.

Understood - but understand too, that some of these options are still in their design "infancy". As future versions are released, many of these ideas will grow

spleen1015 · 10-27-2003, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Henry
Understood - but understand too, that some of these options are still in their design "infancy". As future versions are released, many of these ideas will grow

Promos must not be that important then considering this same system was there in OOTP4.

Henry · 10-27-2003, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by spleen1015
Promos must not be that important then considering this same system was there in OOTP4.

Not when compared to the rewrite of the trade coding, the added variety to the play-by-play, the option to allow player releases by online league owners, the enhancements to the player development algorythms, the fixes to the pinch hitting and pitching change AI, the fix for starting sitchers when they tired to quickly, the recoded calculations that determine whether a player wants to test the market and decline a contract extention offer, the improved September call up AI, the enhanced depth chart usage logic, the fix for error calculations for players playing out of position, and the many other additons to V5 that I can't think of right now... plus the current fix for version 5.13...

Steve Kuffrey · 10-27-2003, 11:29 AM

In v4 promos had too great of an impact and were toned down. Fan interest IS tied to the things that you mentioned "primarily". Also, I'm certain that this part of the game will mature and develop as others do as well.

John Marsh · 10-27-2003, 12:42 PM

I do understand; nor did I at all mean--and I don't think my post implied it either--to question the hard work of the hardest working baseball sim programmers in showbusiness. Nor that I don't appreciate all the other changes. Far from it. I just wanted to point out that promotions seem like a rather indirect and patchy way to effect increases in fan interest. I hope it does develop and mature, but whatever. Like I said, I mostly just wondered if I was crazy or if my math was really that bad. Cheers.

fat dude · 10-27-2003, 12:59 PM

If this were the worst problem Mark had, he'd be doing pretty well. I think there are more pressing matters at hand though. Keep up the good work, OOTP people.

10-26-2003, 10:39 PM	#1
John Marsh Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 19	The Economics of Promotional Days I know I have a degree in English, but can my math really be this bad? Assume a team is averaging 25,000 fans per game. Here (I think) is the cost/benefit of promotional days. (I've left out Retro Game Days since they only happen once a year and those old-timey uniforms are really worth it.) Assume ticket prices to be $10 and Expected Attendance to be 25,000. Caps: Cost: $100,000 Increase Attendance: 20% After Promotion Attendance: 30,000 Attendance Increase: 5,000. Increased Revenue: $50,000. Net Loss: $50,000 Bobble Heads: Cost: $250,000 IA: 45% APA: 36,250 AT: 11,250 IR:112,5000 Net Loss: $112,500 Bats: Cost: $125,000 IA: 25% APA: 31,250 AT: 6,250 IR: $62,500 Net Loss: $62,500 Gloves: Cost: $150,000 IA: 30% APA: 32,500 AI: 7,500 IR: $75,000 Net Loss: $75,000 If a team "took advantage" of all four promotion days for every month of the season, they would lose $1,800,000! In other words, in order for promotional days to be profitable, you have to already be drawing more than 50,000 fans per game. And since few stadiums seat much more than 50,000 people, I doubt promotional days would even be profitable then. Now, to be sure, on some of those promotional days, the home team may win and, sometimes but not always, your fan interest will click upwards a point. I do not know the relation between fan interest and attendance, but let's assume that you take advantage of all twenty four promotional day opportunities and win half of those games. Your fan interest should (at best) increase by twelve. Over the course of the year, each click upwards in fan interest would have to increase attendance enough to offset the outlay in promotional money. You are losing $1,800,000 over the course of the year. To get it back, you would need to draw 180,000 more fans. Each one of the 12 clicks upwards, then, would have to produce an additional 15,000 fans over the course of the year. Another way to put it is that each click upward in fan interest would have to inspire approximately 185 people (15,000/81) per home game to show up when they otherwise would not have. Their reason for doing so? They "heard" (presumably from the additional people who attended) that the team won the same day--the same day, can you believe it!?!--that the team decided to give everyone baseballs or dress up in old timey uniforms. I've got to see the team who can pull that off! Promotional Days may (as economists like to say) in the long run be profitable as a result of their effect on fan interest, but even if they are ultimately profitable the logic seems kind of ridiculous. Moreover, as General Manager, I resent having to schedule promotional days. Isn't that why general mangers have assistants? Don't I have better things to worry about? And why is the decision between whether to give away baseballs or baseball caps the only decision the computer deems serious enough to ask you if you really mean it? Where was the computer when I decided to take a chance on that closer in the first round of the amateur draft only to get burned a week later when his talent dropped faster than a team's attendance following a promotional day. Now that I've flamed, someone please tell me I just forget to carry a one or mixed up thousands for ten thousands.

10-26-2003, 11:14 PM	#2
Skipaway Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Where you live Posts: 11,017	The way promotional days works in this game is indeed very odd and unrealistic. For now, promotional days are good for leagues with low cash caps to give rid of the extra cash though. __________________ Jonathan Haidt: Moral reasoning is really just a servant masquerading as a high priest.

10-27-2003, 11:29 AM	#10
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,036	In v4 promos had too great of an impact and were toned down. Fan interest IS tied to the things that you mentioned "primarily". Also, I'm certain that this part of the game will mature and develop as others do as well. __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

10-27-2003, 04:24 AM	#3
SpaceNinja Banned Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 92	Indeed, but I just chalk the money towards promotion days as being my entire promotion budget. It's still not realistic, but at least it justifies spending money for a chance to improve my fan interest.

10-27-2003, 10:04 AM	#5
Henry Hall of Fame Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 6,498	The "key" is choosing the right day... you have to WIN, so it's wise in a solo league to pull out all the tricks to get that win. If you do get the win, then followup economics will more than make up for the cost.

10-27-2003, 12:42 PM	#11
John Marsh Bat Boy Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 19	I do understand; nor did I at all mean--and I don't think my post implied it either--to question the hard work of the hardest working baseball sim programmers in showbusiness. Nor that I don't appreciate all the other changes. Far from it. I just wanted to point out that promotions seem like a rather indirect and patchy way to effect increases in fan interest. I hope it does develop and mature, but whatever. Like I said, I mostly just wondered if I was crazy or if my math was really that bad. Cheers.

10-27-2003, 12:59 PM	#12
fat dude Major Leagues Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 392	If this were the worst problem Mark had, he'd be doing pretty well. I think there are more pressing matters at hand though. Keep up the good work, OOTP people.