Scouts vs. Stats

Pubbahuska · 08-08-2003, 02:17 PM

I usually get conflicting data about the progress of my minor league players. I had a guy in AAA hitting over .400 but my scout said he could probably use more time at AA. Then I get a guy at A hitting .195 who apparently is ready for AA. Do you rely on the stats or the scout?

Black Lightning · 08-08-2003, 03:04 PM

I just turned off the scouts on my new league. I was not enjoying that aspect of the game and found much of it too confusing.

WLight · 08-08-2003, 03:57 PM

The stats, no question. Who cares what the scout thinks if the guy's performance makes it clear. I use the scouts' recomendations as a very general guideline, or when deciding between 2 players that are equal otherwise.

Keep in mind, though, that sample size is important -- if a guy hits .400 in only 50 ABs that's not as significant as if he keeps hitting well for 200 ABs.

Pubbahuska · 08-08-2003, 04:03 PM

Yes, I am aware of sample size, thats why I think its odd that they even have an opinion that early. If its too small to tell he belongs at that level, its too small to tell he doesn't belong at that level.

Cooker · 08-08-2003, 04:38 PM

I moved a highly regarded prospect from AA to AAA because my ML catcher got hurt. I promoted my AAA catcher to the bigs and my AA catcher (the prospect) to take the spot of the promoted AAA catcher.

After 3 weeks my former AA catcher prospect is hitting .280 at AAA, higher than the .260 he was hitting at AA. But my scout keeps saying "Needs a little more time at AA."

I'd like to know what scouts base their advice on. Obviously not stats; his stats are better in AAA than AA (though it's only 3 weeks). Maybe it's his ratings compared to other AAA players. I'm not sure. But I generally ignore my scouts if a player's performance doesn't suffer at a higher level.

beatle · 08-08-2003, 06:13 PM

Do a search on this subject. There has been a lot written about it. Henry just posted something about this within the last week I believe.

Steve Kuffrey · 08-08-2003, 06:21 PM

Player value=Scouting + Stats + Talent + Ratings + ?

WLight · 08-08-2003, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pubbahuska
thats why I think its odd that they even have an opinion that early. If its too small to tell he belongs at that level, its too small to tell he doesn't belong at that level.

Because scouts' recomendations aren't based on stats. Take a 19 year old straight from the draft to AAA before he's thrown a pitch at any level in his OOTP life and the scouts will tell you he's not ready for that level.

HolyCow98 · 08-09-2003, 03:45 AM

I too use the scouts reccomendation as just a general guideline...kinda a flag that sends a message to take a look at this guy.

Its more fun for me to rely on the stats to decide if a player is ready. It makes me feel like they have to earn any promotions that they receive.

crackpott · 08-09-2003, 04:11 AM

I've always wanted the option to turn the scouts recommendations off. They reveal too much I think. Since they go off ratings, they're likely more accurate than the stats, which can be a fluke season or whatever. Thus if someone is supposed to be promoted when batting .100... they likely should be. However in real life this would never happen, which is why I've been hoping since those red/green arrows to completely eliminate scout interference.

RayofHope · 08-09-2003, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Pubbahuska
I had a guy in AAA hitting over .400 but my scout said he could probably use more time at AA. Then I get a guy at A hitting .195 who apparently is ready for AA. Do you rely on the stats or the scout?

Stats . . . your scout's probably a dumb ass.

One thing I did find that made a BIG difference in my solo league was shelling out A LOT of money for a damn fine scout.

The better your scout is at rating hitting and pitching, the more accurate a read you'll get on how good a player is IMHO.

If I knew I was about to lose my excellent/excellent or outstanding/outstanding scout, I took note of his comments and ratings of all my team's players just incase my next scout sucked.

HolyCow98 · 08-09-2003, 08:33 PM

Yeah...I wish they didn't go so heavily on ratings...for the same reason that Crackpott mentionied.

I just can't bring myself to promote a guy who is hitting .153 or is like 1-9 with 5.98 even if the scouts suggest me to...I refuse to look at his ratings....I'll wait till the season ends....and when everybody stats get reset I'll look at who the scouts think should go where....if there isn't a going to be a log jam at a position then I'll usually go with their suggestions...but once the season gets going....they have to earn a promotion to get one.

Steve Kuffrey · 08-09-2003, 08:36 PM

I've currently got a player in an online league that the scouting report states "he's not a good solution.......", he is 25 or 26 has pretty good ratings (not ggreat) but has been hitting over .300 all year. You've got to consider the "big picture" when looking at players and not single out one area.

HolyCow98 · 08-09-2003, 08:43 PM

Well, in AAA players, or more specifically when to promote a guy to the Major League roster I always go more with need and current ratings...

My earlier comments are mainly referring to the suggestion of the scouts when to promote from A to AA or AA to AAA.

TheRockCT · 08-10-2003, 01:20 AM

I tend to lean towards his statistical production as well, but his ratings do play into a decision. If I'm in a league without scouts, you can start to tell who should be where based on a combination of stats, positioning (if you have 5 OF's in AAA, and a stud OF in AA ready to be promoted, you need to make room for him to actually PLAY by releasing some AAA guys, or demoting those who aren't cutting it), and his ratings.

WITH scouts though, I tend to be hesitant of the guys that they want to move who are statistically doing either very well or horrible (based on how they want me to move them), but hitters hitting .250 or so, and pitchers who can keep an ERA under 5, I will probably take their recommendation to move them up, and if they're hitting .230 or less or with an ERA over 5, I will move them down if the scout calls for it.

Just a case of hit or miss usually. Sometimes you can think you've done everything right but find a star prospect take a major talent hit and end up worthless, or see a guy you've had playing backup in A come up with a talent increase that gives him more value than the guy you had starting in front of him.

08-08-2003, 02:17 PM	#1
Pubbahuska Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Prince Frederick, MD Posts: 43	Scouts vs. Stats I usually get conflicting data about the progress of my minor league players. I had a guy in AAA hitting over .400 but my scout said he could probably use more time at AA. Then I get a guy at A hitting .195 who apparently is ready for AA. Do you rely on the stats or the scout?

08-08-2003, 03:04 PM	#2
Black Lightning Minors (Single A) Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mobile, AL Posts: 54	I just turned off the scouts on my new league. I was not enjoying that aspect of the game and found much of it too confusing. __________________ NABC - Mobile Bears UBA - Charleston Aces

08-08-2003, 06:13 PM	#6
beatle All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 634	Do a search on this subject. There has been a lot written about it. Henry just posted something about this within the last week I believe. __________________ If you hang with the buzzards, you eat the dead mule! Beatle

08-08-2003, 06:21 PM	#7
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,023	Player value=Scouting + Stats + Talent + Ratings + ? __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

08-09-2003, 03:45 AM	#9
HolyCow98 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Douglasville, GA Posts: 2,735	I too use the scouts reccomendation as just a general guideline...kinda a flag that sends a message to take a look at this guy. Its more fun for me to rely on the stats to decide if a player is ready. It makes me feel like they have to earn any promotions that they receive. __________________ NPBL Enjoying its 60th season Georgia GM

08-08-2003, 03:57 PM	#3
WLight Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: CA Posts: 314	The stats, no question. Who cares what the scout thinks if the guy's performance makes it clear. I use the scouts' recomendations as a very general guideline, or when deciding between 2 players that are equal otherwise. Keep in mind, though, that sample size is important -- if a guy hits .400 in only 50 ABs that's not as significant as if he keeps hitting well for 200 ABs.

08-08-2003, 04:03 PM	#4
Pubbahuska Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Prince Frederick, MD Posts: 43	Yes, I am aware of sample size, thats why I think its odd that they even have an opinion that early. If its too small to tell he belongs at that level, its too small to tell he doesn't belong at that level.

08-08-2003, 04:38 PM	#5
Cooker All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 592	I moved a highly regarded prospect from AA to AAA because my ML catcher got hurt. I promoted my AAA catcher to the bigs and my AA catcher (the prospect) to take the spot of the promoted AAA catcher. After 3 weeks my former AA catcher prospect is hitting .280 at AAA, higher than the .260 he was hitting at AA. But my scout keeps saying "Needs a little more time at AA." I'd like to know what scouts base their advice on. Obviously not stats; his stats are better in AAA than AA (though it's only 3 weeks). Maybe it's his ratings compared to other AAA players. I'm not sure. But I generally ignore my scouts if a player's performance doesn't suffer at a higher level.

08-09-2003, 04:11 AM	#10
crackpott Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Toronto Posts: 2,961	I've always wanted the option to turn the scouts recommendations off. They reveal too much I think. Since they go off ratings, they're likely more accurate than the stats, which can be a fluke season or whatever. Thus if someone is supposed to be promoted when batting .100... they likely should be. However in real life this would never happen, which is why I've been hoping since those red/green arrows to completely eliminate scout interference. __________________ Abandoned Planet - Check it out. The photos don't suck anymore.

08-09-2003, 08:33 PM	#12
HolyCow98 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Douglasville, GA Posts: 2,735	Yeah...I wish they didn't go so heavily on ratings...for the same reason that Crackpott mentionied. I just can't bring myself to promote a guy who is hitting .153 or is like 1-9 with 5.98 even if the scouts suggest me to...I refuse to look at his ratings....I'll wait till the season ends....and when everybody stats get reset I'll look at who the scouts think should go where....if there isn't a going to be a log jam at a position then I'll usually go with their suggestions...but once the season gets going....they have to earn a promotion to get one. __________________ NPBL Enjoying its 60th season Georgia GM

08-09-2003, 08:36 PM	#13
Steve Kuffrey Administrator Join Date: Jul 1999 Location: S.E. TN - Georgia born and raised Posts: 17,023	I've currently got a player in an online league that the scouting report states "he's not a good solution.......", he is 25 or 26 has pretty good ratings (not ggreat) but has been hitting over .300 all year. You've got to consider the "big picture" when looking at players and not single out one area. __________________ Steve Kuffrey DABS Atlanta Braves - 2008 Eastern Division Champ *DBLC Atlanta Braves - 2011, 2014 East Division Champ, 2012, 2013 NL Wildcard Baseball Maelstrom-Montreal Expos-2013 Tourney winner, 2014 WC Team Sparky's League - Tampa Bay D'Rays Epicenter Baseball League - Astros 2014 The CBL Rewind - Phillies '95

08-09-2003, 08:43 PM	#14
HolyCow98 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Douglasville, GA Posts: 2,735	Well, in AAA players, or more specifically when to promote a guy to the Major League roster I always go more with need and current ratings... My earlier comments are mainly referring to the suggestion of the scouts when to promote from A to AA or AA to AAA. __________________ NPBL Enjoying its 60th season Georgia GM

08-10-2003, 01:20 AM	#15
TheRockCT All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: TN Posts: 1,083	I tend to lean towards his statistical production as well, but his ratings do play into a decision. If I'm in a league without scouts, you can start to tell who should be where based on a combination of stats, positioning (if you have 5 OF's in AAA, and a stud OF in AA ready to be promoted, you need to make room for him to actually PLAY by releasing some AAA guys, or demoting those who aren't cutting it), and his ratings. WITH scouts though, I tend to be hesitant of the guys that they want to move who are statistically doing either very well or horrible (based on how they want me to move them), but hitters hitting .250 or so, and pitchers who can keep an ERA under 5, I will probably take their recommendation to move them up, and if they're hitting .230 or less or with an ERA over 5, I will move them down if the scout calls for it. Just a case of hit or miss usually. Sometimes you can think you've done everything right but find a star prospect take a major talent hit and end up worthless, or see a guy you've had playing backup in A come up with a talent increase that gives him more value than the guy you had starting in front of him. __________________ GM, Vermont Emperor Penguins - POTD POTD Champions: 2011, 2012, 2013 GM, Monterrey Aztecs* - NABA *NABA Champions: 2013