Developmental Risk

Jasper70 · 01-01-2026, 01:51 AM

Just bought 26

Question, what does extreme developmental risk mean? Low (good?)> extreme (bad?) ?

Pelican · 01-01-2026, 11:23 AM

I think you are on the right track. I interpret extreme risk to mean that the player may not reach his potential, may not develop at all, or could develop in unforeseen (and not helpful) ways. It should make you think twice about that yawning gap between Potential and Current ability.

This is why I tend to focus on older amateur players with more of a proven track record, preferably in a top (i.e., SEC) college program. Less risk. Higher floor, but in many cases lower ceiling. Plus the college junior could be ready to play in MLB in a year or two. The high school senior is many years away, best case.

However I will make an exception for international amateurs with high Potential. With a sixteen-year-old, the risk is still considerable. But these guys play baseball year-round, and tend to have advanced skills. This experience gives them a decent floor, and a higher ceiling for many.

It comes down to what your level of risk tolerance is, and also how much patience you have. No question it's fun to see a guy beat the odds and become a star in your system. It's why you'll spend time on scouting and development.

Sweed · 01-01-2026, 12:53 PM

Yes extreme is bad, low is good. They risk notations are also color coded like batting/pitching skills.

extreme - red
medium- green
low - blueish/green
very low - blueish/green (appears to my eyes the same as "low" but maybe there is a slight shade change my old eyes can't see)

brigmcneil · 01-01-2026, 04:00 PM

I did notice in our historic league that a couple of players who were rushed to majors (1st or 2nd year), were the only 2 prospects showing "HIGH RISK" they are say 45 OVERALL 75 POTENTIAL which makes me really believe that rushing guys who are "major league ready aka 45+ now" run a stronger risk of ending up a 55 rather than a 75. I think the game manual talks about the risk of rushing young guys too fast. This may be a less subtle reminder.

01-01-2026, 01:51 AM	#1
Jasper70 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jul 2023 Posts: 164	Developmental Risk Just bought 26 Question, what does extreme developmental risk mean? Low (good?)> extreme (bad?) ?

01-01-2026, 11:23 AM	#2
Pelican Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2021 Location: Wilmington, Delaware Posts: 3,022	I think you are on the right track. I interpret extreme risk to mean that the player may not reach his potential, may not develop at all, or could develop in unforeseen (and not helpful) ways. It should make you think twice about that yawning gap between Potential and Current ability. This is why I tend to focus on older amateur players with more of a proven track record, preferably in a top (i.e., SEC) college program. Less risk. Higher floor, but in many cases lower ceiling. Plus the college junior could be ready to play in MLB in a year or two. The high school senior is many years away, best case. However I will make an exception for international amateurs with high Potential. With a sixteen-year-old, the risk is still considerable. But these guys play baseball year-round, and tend to have advanced skills. This experience gives them a decent floor, and a higher ceiling for many. It comes down to what your level of risk tolerance is, and also how much patience you have. No question it's fun to see a guy beat the odds and become a star in your system. It's why you'll spend time on scouting and development. __________________ Pelican OOTP 2020-? ”Hard to believe, Harry.”

01-01-2026, 04:00 PM	#4
brigmcneil Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 212	I did notice in our historic league that a couple of players who were rushed to majors (1st or 2nd year), were the only 2 prospects showing "HIGH RISK" they are say 45 OVERALL 75 POTENTIAL which makes me really believe that rushing guys who are "major league ready aka 45+ now" run a stronger risk of ending up a 55 rather than a 75. I think the game manual talks about the risk of rushing young guys too fast. This may be a less subtle reminder.