Draft Rounds and the "talent curve"

Righty Groove · 09-29-2025, 03:49 PM

Hello!

I always play fictional and, right now, I'm playing a 20-team, 2 minor league levels league, abour 12 years in.

A Rookie level (21 and under) and a Single-A level (no restrictions)
I use an 7-rounds draft (create players for 8 rounds).

No International Free Agents (IFAs), no established International Free Agents either. All players come from the draft.

I just feel like there are "too many" elite players? Like, several 70+ potential players, every draft year. And, 12 years in, there are A LOT of 80+ and 70+ POT players in the league.
And this is with scouting at 100%, so it's not a mistake from scouts.

For example:
Total players in the League: 643
Players 80+ POT: 26 (4%)
Players 70+ POT: 70 (10%)

Including minors, the numbers are:
Total players in the League: 2625
Players 80+ POT: 44 (1.68%)
Players 70+ POT: 122 (4.65%)

Out of curiosity, I started a Regular MLB game, with real players, and the numbers (Majors only) above were:

Total players in the League: 1092
Players 80+ POT: 33 (0.41%)
Players 70+ POT: 78 (0.98%)

So, my league has like triple the players at 80+
What gives?

If I change the number of draft rounds, does it create MORE high-potential players? Does it change the "talent curve" of the draft eleigible players? Or does the top talent stay the same?

Talent Change Randomness is set at 50
Player creation modifiers is all 1.000

Righty Groove · 09-29-2025, 03:49 PM

I also created a "fresh" Fictional League

No history, no draft (yet), just the fictional created players. The results are:

Total players in the League (minors inclusded): 2120

Players 80+ POT: 16 (0.75%) - My league is at 1.68%, minors included

Players 70+ POT: 53 (2.50%) - Mine is at 4.65%, minors included.

So, again, over double the amount of "elite" players than a freshly generated fictional league.

mytreds · 09-30-2025, 12:52 AM

You’re going to get more responses from Reddit than here, probably.

But what kind of scout do you have?
And honestly 14% of the league is elite players, that sounds about right. Means almost every team can have one superstar.

jcard · 09-30-2025, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytreds

You’re going to get more responses from Reddit than here, probably.

But what kind of scout do you have?
And honestly 14% of the league is elite players, that sounds about right. Means almost every team can have one superstar.

How are you getting the 14% (~1/7) figure? How does that translate into ~1 per team (which, in any case, I would still say exceeds the proportion of MLB players considered elite, at least in terms of having 70+ PV)?

ChrisG · 09-30-2025, 09:43 PM

I think there's a known issue rn with the fictional drafts being overpowered after they rectified the drafts with real players being underpowered.

I think IAFA is a bit overpowered too using default settings.

Change the player creation modifiers. I'm trying out dropping everything except Stamina, Running Speed, and Fielding to .950 or so.

willboat75 · 10-05-2025, 02:56 PM

In a fictional league I created, I simmed a number of years to flush out the initial player pool with generated graftees. I found that the results are incredibly flat. Teams rarely stray from winning around 75-95 games per season. There are very few seasons with less than 70 wins when I look at each team's history. Almost every team has a few bonafide stars due to the ratings inflation.

I would like to be able to make a save, whether its MLB or fictional, I don't care, where the player ratings aren't so similar that it becomes incredibly easy to field a winning team.

One of the main reasons I tend not to have more than one long save per year is that once you've been in a job for about five years, even if you don't cheese, you have an incredible amount of depth compared to CPU teams and it's hard for a collapse to happen due to injury or underperformance like we see in real life.

Player talent distribution probably needs to be solved in a more challenging way! Is there anyone that has development settings that encourage this?

09-29-2025, 03:49 PM	#1
Righty Groove Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 267	Draft Rounds and the "talent curve" Hello! I always play fictional and, right now, I'm playing a 20-team, 2 minor league levels league, abour 12 years in. A Rookie level (21 and under) and a Single-A level (no restrictions) I use an 7-rounds draft (create players for 8 rounds). No International Free Agents (IFAs), no established International Free Agents either. All players come from the draft. I just feel like there are "too many" elite players? Like, several 70+ potential players, every draft year. And, 12 years in, there are A LOT of 80+ and 70+ POT players in the league. And this is with scouting at 100%, so it's not a mistake from scouts. For example: Total players in the League: 643 Players 80+ POT: 26 (4%) Players 70+ POT: 70 (10%) Including minors, the numbers are: Total players in the League: 2625 Players 80+ POT: 44 (1.68%) Players 70+ POT: 122 (4.65%) Out of curiosity, I started a Regular MLB game, with real players, and the numbers (Majors only) above were: Total players in the League: 1092 Players 80+ POT: 33 (0.41%) Players 70+ POT: 78 (0.98%) So, my league has like triple the players at 80+ What gives? If I change the number of draft rounds, does it create MORE high-potential players? Does it change the "talent curve" of the draft eleigible players? Or does the top talent stay the same? Talent Change Randomness is set at 50 Player creation modifiers is all 1.000

09-30-2025, 12:52 AM	#3
mytreds All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 1,182	You’re going to get more responses from Reddit than here, probably. But what kind of scout do you have? And honestly 14% of the league is elite players, that sounds about right. Means almost every team can have one superstar. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 Floreat semper vel invita morte. I make custom ballparks. Last edited by mytreds; 09-30-2025 at 12:54 AM.

09-30-2025, 09:43 PM	#5
ChrisG Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 398	I think there's a known issue rn with the fictional drafts being overpowered after they rectified the drafts with real players being underpowered. I think IAFA is a bit overpowered too using default settings. Change the player creation modifiers. I'm trying out dropping everything except Stamina, Running Speed, and Fielding to .950 or so.

10-05-2025, 02:56 PM	#6
willboat75 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2020 Location: Detroit Posts: 188	In a fictional league I created, I simmed a number of years to flush out the initial player pool with generated graftees. I found that the results are incredibly flat. Teams rarely stray from winning around 75-95 games per season. There are very few seasons with less than 70 wins when I look at each team's history. Almost every team has a few bonafide stars due to the ratings inflation. I would like to be able to make a save, whether its MLB or fictional, I don't care, where the player ratings aren't so similar that it becomes incredibly easy to field a winning team. One of the main reasons I tend not to have more than one long save per year is that once you've been in a job for about five years, even if you don't cheese, you have an incredible amount of depth compared to CPU teams and it's hard for a collapse to happen due to injury or underperformance like we see in real life. Player talent distribution probably needs to be solved in a more challenging way! Is there anyone that has development settings that encourage this?