30 Point Overall Drop

[BlackWatch]

One of my international free agent signings has been a top 100 prospect since I drafted him at 16 or 17. He's been 80 overall potential the entire time up until he turned 20. He's rated as the #3 overall prospect in all of baseball at the moment. Which is why I was shocked when I got a development update that showed that his overall 80 dropped to 49 in one update. Then the following month to 47. If you look at his actual gains he has no losses, only neutral or marginal gains. I've only been playing OOTP since '25, but I've put a lot of seasons into both '25 and '26, and I've never seen such a catastrophic drop in one shot before. Could this be a glitch?

[Guthrien]

It's rare, but yes I've seen it and always with International Players if I'm remembering correctly. They are just extremely chaotic signings. Most will not come close to matching their initial projections, they are the ultimate lottery ticket. I'll grant you this is particularly disappointing, and it's always been a potential crash for me (I guess that goes without saying). When I play for 'years' without a doubt a couple of these guys will end up being some of the best players in the league but the majority will be time and money sinks. This was just a drastic example.

[Pdubya64]

Yeah, I think Lopez was just one of those outliers in your current game. It stinks but I am learning to cope with OOTP's ups and downs these days.

Other folks, not so sure.

[Pelican]

I wouldn't give up on him yet. It's possible for players to recover some of that lost talent - for the ratings to go back up - particularly in young guys. Have you seen a drop-off in his production yet?

What is your level of scouting accuracy? It could be your scout is simply too pessimistic, or is missing something, or doesn't like the guy.

Curious if there was anything you could point to to cause the change. For example, an injury, a position change, or simply poor performance. Even in OOTP, things should happen for a reason, even if the reason is hard to find.

[BlackWatch]

Originally Posted by Pelican

I wouldn't give up on him yet. It's possible for players to recover some of that lost talent - for the ratings to go back up - particularly in young guys. Have you seen a drop-off in his production yet?

What is your level of scouting accuracy? It could be your scout is simply too pessimistic, or is missing something, or doesn't like the guy.

Curious if there was anything you could point to to cause the change. For example, an injury, a position change, or simply poor performance. Even in OOTP, things should happen for a reason, even if the reason is hard to find.

No injury history. Still playing in rookie ball. Numbers there are good. What's really weird is how long he was rated 80 overall and that he's still rated as #3 prospect in the league.

[BlackWatch]

Originally Posted by Guthrien

It's rare, but yes I've seen it and always with International Players if I'm remembering correctly. They are just extremely chaotic signings. Most will not come close to matching their initial projections, they are the ultimate lottery ticket. I'll grant you this is particularly disappointing, and it's always been a potential crash for me (I guess that goes without saying). When I play for 'years' without a doubt a couple of these guys will end up being some of the best players in the league but the majority will be time and money sinks. This was just a drastic example.

I've definitely had other international signings that ended up stinkers, but it was gradual and steady, not all at once. Thought I had my franchise catcher a year or two away. Bummer.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by BlackWatch

No injury history. Still playing in rookie ball. Numbers there are good. What's really weird is how long he was rated 80 overall and that he's still rated as #3 prospect in the league.

Likely was very inflated potential ratings that have now been revealed as so. 80 overall means he was projected to be the top 2 player in ALL of MLB not just catcher but top 2 out of all position players.

As for the prospect list, it's next to meaningless. They in no way reflect how good a prospect is rated overall or potential.

[Bagpipes5]

I see this happen a lot in my saves. Players will start very young and very high and wander down the list until they are off it completely. I've always chalked it up to the top 100 being vastly different in OOTP than in real life. OOTP list is more of a top 100 based purely on potential, age and ability play no role. Real life top 100 is more of a list of young guys whose ability is close to the major league level then sorted by their potential and as such is much more of a stable list.

I'd trade the guy, he should net you a nice return for something. Don't be surprised if you check in a few years and their potential is in the 40s

[BlackWatch]

Originally Posted by Bagpipes5

I see this happen a lot in my saves. Players will start very young and very high and wander down the list until they are off it completely. I've always chalked it up to the top 100 being vastly different in OOTP than in real life. OOTP list is more of a top 100 based purely on potential, age and ability play no role. Real life top 100 is more of a list of young guys whose ability is close to the major league level then sorted by their potential and as such is much more of a stable list.

I'd trade the guy, he should net you a nice return for something. Don't be surprised if you check in a few years and their potential is in the 40s

Yeah, that's a good idea. If he's rated that high as a prospect I might be able to get something decent for him.

Thanks for all the input everyone!