Fictional splits not significant enough

[Murcer]

I wanted to post about an issue I'm seeing with OOTP 25 with regard to platoon splits. To summarize, I don't think player rating splits vs L and vs R are significant enough to create realistic statistical outcomes.

Looking at the actual MLB career leaderboard in OPS+ (I removed players from pre-1940s) the top 20 breaks down as follows:
righty hitters = 55%
lefty hitters = 40%
switch hitters = 5%

Extending it to top 50 and top 100 does not materially change those percentages.

From the three OOTP test leagues I ran over hundreds of seasons, here is the average top 20 breakdown:
righty hitters = 80%
lefty hitters = 15%
switch hitters = 5%

Again, extending this to top 50 and 100 doesn't change the percentages by much.

I exported and averaged actual OOTP player ratings and, while there are platoon differences, they are very small; see screenshot.

I've never had this issue with previous versions of the game and I don't use particularly quirky modifiers or anything (my environment mimics baseball from the mid-1980s). However, I would be curious to hear if others are getting different results. Thanks.

[Murcer]

I'm surprised this issue isn't receiving attention given the impact to game play. If players don't have realistic (or even reasonable) rating splits, you're not really simulating baseball. Lefty/righty matchups are one of the strategic foundations of the game.


I've been trying to think of workarounds but, outside of exporting, manipulating, and importing ratings, I don't see any options.

[Reed]

I find your work interesting but it would be more meaningful (and probably a lot more work) to see the resulting stats, at least for me. BA, HRs, KOs., BB.

[Murcer]

I agree but couldn’t find an easy way to do that. I’ll take a shot and will post results if I can figure out a way.

[Murcer]

Ok I think I found a solid way to approach this and I'd like to correct my original assertion (Reed, thank you for pushing me on this).

Based on the numbers I pulled from the exports of my test leagues, it looks like the reason lefties are underrepresented in the OPS leader board is that the statistical splits for right handed hitters are not severe enough. As a result, right handed hitters, over the course of their careers, pull away from the left handed hitters and produce a higher career OPS.

I can't say if the issue is with hitter ratings or pitcher ratings, but one (or both?) of them is off.

From the screenshot below, you can see an OPS split difference of 26 points for right handed hitters and a difference of 63 points for left handed hitters. I was able to find real-life MLB splits across multiple seasons (I used mid-1980s since my league roughly simulates that era) and the average real-life MLB split differences were:
for right handed hitters: 47 OPS points
for left handed hitters: 67 OPS points

[Reed]

Thank you for this. I am sure the developers have noticed your work. Again thanks.

[AdequateRandomGaming]

Thank you for doing the research. All I can add to the discussion is that it's not something that only has been in the game in V25...it's been this way since I started playing back in V9. Or at least, if you look at the ratings.

It's 100% ratings related as ratings are usually the exact same against lefties and righties, except in some occasion where it's maybe 1 point off one way or another, both for pitchers and batters alike (I am one of those crazy people who use the 1-100 scale...I doubt there is any difference in ratings on smaller scales).

I've just always labeled it as a quirk of playing fictional, but you are correct that it kills platooning situations (and also make switch hitters less valuable).

[Murcer]

Originally Posted by AdequateRandomGaming

Thank you for doing the research. All I can add to the discussion is that it's not something that only has been in the game in V25...it's been this way since I started playing back in V9. Or at least, if you look at the ratings.

I never noticed it in previous versions as it must not have been as pronounced. I used to have a pretty good mix of great lefty, righty, and switch hitters.


I only stumbled upon the issue in OOTP25 when I was curious which left handed hitter had the highest career OPS in my test league and had to scroll waaaay down the list to get to him.

[mrallen77]

I have noticed that in online leagues. No one is really working the splits, we're just trying to sign the best players in position. I agree that it should have more of an impact

[Edward ohare]

Originally Posted by Murcer

Based on the numbers I pulled from the exports of my test leagues, it looks like the reason lefties are underrepresented in the OPS leader board is that the statistical splits for right handed hitters are not severe enough.

You have shown that in the game left handed batters suffer more from from same side pitching than right handed batters. My casual observation of MLB is that left handed batters suffer more from same side pitching than right handed batters. You can't say the game is wrong until you show it doesn't simulate MLB correctly. Lefties having a greater split in the game may be correct.

[Bill Veeck]

The OPS splits don’t seem that far off compared to 1987 (yesterday in which OPSs were this large)

[Murcer]

To address the points made above.

Edward ohare, in the quote you show in your post, I stated that it's the right handed hitters whose splits are not far enough apart. In my post above, I noted that I pulled splits from multiple seasons in the 1980's and the average difference in OPS for a right handed hitter vs L and vs R was 47 points (I pulled every 80's season for Bill Veeck and it was 46 for all ten seasons). After simulating many seasons, OOTP has a difference of 26 points.

Bill Veeck, in 1987 right handed hitters posted an OPS vs L of .764 and and OPS vs R of .721 for a 43 point difference. That's much different than the 26 point difference I found in my OOTP test seasons. Here is the yearly difference for righty hitters vs L and vs R throughout the 80s:
1980 = 62
1981 = 40
1982 = 36
1983 = 49
1984 = 51
1985 = 46
1986 = 43
1987 = 43
1988 = 31
1989 = 55
Average = 46

I'm definitely open to the possibility that my league is producing flukey results because of my settings but I doubt it because they're not that unusual. Look at your career OPS leader board and check the breakdown between lefty, righty, and switch hitters. If your leagues are anything like mine, the vast majority of your top career hitters in OPS will be right handed.