Current vs potential

[Obechkinsbuddy]

I have a prospect that’s been a top 10 prospect since he was 16. He’s now 21 he’s still a top 3 prospect but he’s still a half a star currently 5 star potential is that a cause for concern. Should he still be a half star I feel like at 21 you should be growing into your 5 star or your potential drops and it hasn’t

[mytreds]

Personally I don’t pay attention stars, or even use them. Look at his ratings, look at his past scout reports. Are his ratings trending up, down, staying even? What minor league do you currently have him at? Have you been promoting him to the next level each year? How many years has he been in your minor league system? What position does he play? Many things can influence development so I am asking a fraction of the questions needed to be asked in order to help diagnose your players situation.

[Obechkinsbuddy]

I need to pay better attention to all that this is only the second time I have played far enough into a career for it to matter. I always just let my manager do the promoting because its overwhelming to do it all. Maybe I should just do it for the top prospects going forward so I can make sure they are getting taken care of. Same with the advanced raitings and scouting reports. Thanks for the help. Anyways hes an elite centerfielder that can play all outfield.

Originally Posted by mytreds

Personally I don’t pay attention stars, or even use them. Look at his ratings, look at his past scout reports. Are his ratings trending up, down, staying even? What minor league do you currently have him at? Have you been promoting him to the next level each year? How many years has he been in your minor league system? What position does he play? Many things can influence development so I am asking a fraction of the questions needed to be asked in order to help diagnose your players situation.

[Pelican]

Agree that stars are, at best, a rough measure; but half a star at 21 with no change in five years is a big red flag. What were his stats during those five years? Has he been hurt? Have you had him re-scouted? I've seen guys fail to reach their potential. This happens all the time. The potential drops - eventually to the level of the Current rating. I have never seen what OP is reporting: no change in high Potential or low Current rating over five years. Feels like something is broken.

[Obechkinsbuddy]

I rescouted him going into age 21 season he’s in double AA to start this season he has been in R,A,A+ so far hasn’t hit very well career .215 hitter. But his potential is still 4.5 stars contact power eye all in the 35/60 fielding is off the charts at 4 positions 70/80 range. Still a half star current. Been a top 5 prospect from age 16 to 21. Currently 3. Wondering if I will ever see him take off or trade him while everyone is high on him. Maybe just a late bloomer we shall see. He has moved slower through the minors than some other prospects

Originally Posted by Pelican

Agree that stars are, at best, a rough measure; but half a star at 21 with no change in five years is a big red flag. What were his stats during those five years? Has he been hurt? Have you had him re-scouted? I've seen guys fail to reach their potential. This happens all the time. The potential drops - eventually to the level of the Current rating. I have never seen what OP is reporting: no change in high Potential or low Current rating over five years. Feels like something is broken.

[Obechkinsbuddy]

Update he’s now 23. He’s hitting .280 In double AA 2 stars still 5 star potential. I moved player developement up to 1.5 and younger in the setting they added a year ago. Pretty normal to not develop till then I understand Im just not seeing outliers in my few 10 year sims. The Verlander Scherzer Mortons still effective at 40 the Trouts Harpers Eury Perez Acuna Jose Fernandez that comes up at 19-20 and puts their name on the map and the dominate college pitcher that gets drafted and is basically mlb ready Strasburg Skenes Seems like no matter what 23-24 is when they will move forward or bust

[NoOne]

The fact that he retained his potential rating from 16 to 21-23 is a good sign. Usually if this is a false value, it becomes apparent after a few years with scouting and mil experience under their belt. That is not the only way to fizzle out (false ratings from bad scouting) Sometimes they just don't develop, and if it continues into age 24-25-26 you give up, because they aren't getting any better (current ratings). 24 is possible but the chances are dwindling fast. If i had to guess 26 is the cutoff but if they finally blossom, it's rare at 24+.

Those highly rated 16 year olds are even less likely to be true than the highly rated 18 year olds in a draft by a wide margin, and the draft is low-probability to start, lol. Keep the faith, but expect more than a few failures.

Bad stats are okay as long as the current ratings are developing and not overmatched for the level. Stats wwill always lag behind ratings, and more so with faster re-scouting increments.

All that matters in the MiL is development. If he's developing super fast and hitting .170, that's fine. If he weren't supposed to be at that level, his ability wouldn't be sky-rocketing. You develop better at each successive level, including ML being the best dev - either due to rate or lack of soft-ceiling. If rated well enoug for the next level, they should be promoted regardless of stats.

[Pelican]

This example is totally why I prefer drafting/signing college guys at 20 or 21 to teenagers. I admit I just don't have the patience to wait and see if my 16-year-old stud will survive to MLB in seven years. [I sometimes make exceptions for international players who seem to be advanced as teenagers, and who are unlikely to attend college.] High ceiling; low floor. Some users find the variation intriguing. I find it maddening. To each his own.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Pelican

This example is totally why I prefer drafting/signing college guys at 20 or 21 to teenagers. I admit I just don't have the patience to wait and see if my 16-year-old stud will survive to MLB in seven years. [I sometimes make exceptions for international players who seem to be advanced as teenagers, and who are unlikely to attend college.] High ceiling; low floor. Some users find the variation intriguing. I find it maddening. To each his own.

It may be maddening (which is why you have chosen the strategy of drafting college players) but it definitely reflects reality….which is most definitely a good thing.

[Pelican]

Oh, no question the long odds on teenage phenoms reflect IRL performance. True. The game does a good job of that. I'm just the guy who puts two bucks on the 5-2 favorite, instead of the 12-1 longshot, or heaven forbid the trifecta. Of course that 5-2 shot could become the classic AAAA star, too.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by Pelican

This example is totally why I prefer drafting/signing college guys at 20 or 21 to teenagers. I admit I just don't have the patience to wait and see if my 16-year-old stud will survive to MLB in seven years. [I sometimes make exceptions for international players who seem to be advanced as teenagers, and who are unlikely to attend college.] High ceiling; low floor. Some users find the variation intriguing. I find it maddening. To each his own.

Context can matter. if you have a fairly young, stacked team drafting 18 year olds can be a great timing replacing a currently youngn talent before they get too expensive plus whatever you get in return for the trade. Bank it. I would not rely on the 18yo, obviously, but 4-5 years out is plenty of time to come across plan "B" and plan "C" too.

Depending on TCR setting, HS are probably the primary source of the elite of the elite ratings that can occur. It probably wouldn't be wise only to draft HS players, but mixign in some percentage when you are living fat on the hog (team talent levels) is definitely a good option to invest in.

lol 16year old discoveries or iafa... grain of salt. you keep'em shortlisted until 99% of them fade in the first year of the minors. Most of that is inaccurate scouting, but the potential definitely is a risk with young players much more so than older prospepcts. 10x so for 16 year olds. this is just gravy when it comes to fruitiotn on not something you plan around. Invest in it and when it pays off you get a little bump.

It's also a huge boon to get guys to the ML level contributing at a younger age. If their first FA contract/extension is only into their early 30s that's an incredible value. Almost gauranteed they'll maintain high levels of out put the entire time and still easy to trade after 8-10 years in the leage. Sure you can get a college player there fast too, but not getting them there at 19-20, which will happen if you let it, occasionaly.