a decrease of reliever's stuff rating

[tktkrtktkr]

I thought that the number of relievers with high stuff decreased over time with each game, so I checked to see if this was indeed the case.

I ran several times 20-year periods with evolution of league turned off and no intervention, then recroded the rating distribution of one save on opening day every four years.






(*velocity: 98-100 Mph -> 99)

You could notice that the average stuff of relievers decreases significantly and there are fewer pitchers with very high stuff(70+) over time, especially relievers, and correspondingly fewer relievers with high OVR.

Of course, on a realistic 20-80 scale, even the best closers don't have OVR above 60, but considering that there are eight relievers with OVR above 70 at the start of the game, it seems like OOTP still values reliever's OVR generously, even if it's been adjusted from past versions.



Therefore, I think the disappearance of relievers with OVR above 70 in OOTP is more a reflection of decrease overall quality of relievers than change in OVR valuation.


This would be fine if the top relievers in the league in 2024 are historically great players and it was normal to not see them again, but I don't think that's the case.



When you look at Josh Hader and Edwin Díaz, it's true that their k/9 is unprecedentedly high. But when look at the K%+ of relievers before the age of 30 since 2000, I don't think their stuff is at a level where it's hard to see it again in league. Just as Kimbrel and Jansen emerged after Gagne and Lidge, it's natural that others will emerge after Josh Hader and Edwin Díaz retire.


In my opinion, there is an inconsistency in the rating distribution. It seems like what the developers want is a realistic rating, but the reliever's rating at the start is still unrealistic and still close to the old version's distribution.

So it seems that either the distribution of ratings of nowaday players, or generated players needs to be adjusted.

[jcard]

Excellent. A very big thank you for running these tests, providing your methodology, and not only sharing your results but doing so in efficient and effective visual presentation. I am just seeing it now, but I look forward to having a more extensive inspection and, hopefully, will have some useful feedback to offer in return. In any case, genuine appreciation here.

[Rain King]

I assume you are starting with the "Standard" league?

I wonder what this would look like if you created a fictional league and tracked it going forward.

The standard rosters are not created, from what I can tell, with fictional player generation in mind and so as a standard game moves into fictional territory there is a re-balancing that happens.

[tktkrtktkr]

Originally Posted by Rain King

I assume you are starting with the "Standard" league?

I wonder what this would look like if you created a fictional league and tracked it going forward.

The standard rosters are not created, from what I can tell, with fictional player generation in mind and so as a standard game moves into fictional territory there is a re-balancing that happens.

Yes, I started with the standard league.

[turtle4499]

Originally Posted by Rain King

I assume you are starting with the "Standard" league?

I wonder what this would look like if you created a fictional league and tracked it going forward.

The same issue happens in fictional leagues. The only way I have found around it is making a feeder league with 13 reliever spots. The issue is primarily driven by player creation and development issues. Even in fictional leagues the early rosters do not have the issue as the upper minor league generated players develop into normal relievers fine.

The game does not give enough bonus to reliever vs starter stuff ratings. The game has always had the issue of too many starters converting to relievers, I understand that is how it happens in real life. The issue now is that those players stuff ratings as starters is WAY close to their stuff rating as relievers. Previously it wouldn't matter much as starters generally had significantly better relief stuff that isn't true anymore.

Their is different pitch count limits for reliever vs starter stuff that did not exist before to my knowledge. Combined with single pitch stuff caps being much lower as pitch rating is capped at 550. There is a much lower variation in pitch ratings for a player then prior games. A pitcher does not get created with 1 or 2 dominate and the rest purely OK to bad pitches. They are fairly even ratings.

[atlbrave1]

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=354086&page=2

I noted something similar in fictional testing. As I guessed in that thread, I don't think the high end of the distribution of ratings is correct, seems smoothed out in comparison to OOTP24, which leads to pitchers (specifically relievers) that aren't rated high enough in Stuff to reflect current (and as wasn't pointed out, not so current) relievers.

[coolfish2]

I think this is problem with development. because, there are still 70+ stuff RP who generated from Internation FA. but, if someone generated as high school player or college player, then I've never seen they have grown to outstanding stuff.