ESPN+ article utilizing OOTP to sim the 2024 season

[CField17]

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but I saw this while having my morning coffee. Way to go OOTP on the exposure! Not sure about the Dodgers over the Guardians outcome, but no one saw the DBacks in the WS last year so I guess anything is possible

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...-betts-freeman

[Sweed]

Nice, and a link to OOTP"s site for readers that want to check out the game.

[Tyronis]

a shame we can't read the full article cause you gotta be an ESPN + member lol...

but very cool.

[jimz]

The whole article doesn't tell you what settings were used (injuries being the important one obviously, but also trading frequency and adjustments, and they sim for 10 years). That kind of makes the thing a puff piece since there's no way to make meaningful comparisons. Even if we assume that they straight up didn't change anything (the article simply says it lets the AI handle rosters and callups so basically running the game with no human player in charge of a team, but they obviously stopped to record the outcome of each season and publication today certainly means that they used a roster set that is different from today's roster. AT the end of the article I still can't quite figure out exactly what they actually simmed. The only descriptor is:

"we simulated 10 seasons of Major League Baseball using current rosters and player projections and ratings for 2024 -- but letting the game's AI engine manage all the teams and roster moves. That meant minor league call-ups, when necessary, and player injuries that affected teams' records."

I took that as "we simmed the league for 10 years with everything controlled by the game". The article though, is ambiguous to the point where I think they played 1 season 10x on the same setting, starting over after each, although it doesn't adequately explain what they did at all, and I gleamed that solely from the fact that they don't talk about any year after the 2024 season. If that's all they did, the insight that "injuries make a huge difference" is um... not much of an insight. And nothing nearly as dramatic as what happened in the first save I played where they lost 14 straight to start September and lost the division with Ohtani only getting 221 ABs and is on the 60 day to end the season more or less twice over. Or Buck Farmer injuring himself by getting beaned by the pitching machine which seems plausible if only he weren't a pitcher. Video games produce variance, more at 11!

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by jimz

The whole article doesn't tell you what settings were used (injuries being the important one obviously, but also trading frequency and adjustments, and they sim for 10 years). That kind of makes the thing a puff piece since there's no way to make meaningful comparisons. Even if we assume that they straight up didn't change anything (the article simply says it lets the AI handle rosters and callups so basically running the game with no human player in charge of a team, but they obviously stopped to record the outcome of each season and publication today certainly means that they used a roster set that is different from today's roster. AT the end of the article I still can't quite figure out exactly what they actually simmed. The only descriptor is:

"we simulated 10 seasons of Major League Baseball using current rosters and player projections and ratings for 2024 -- but letting the game's AI engine manage all the teams and roster moves. That meant minor league call-ups, when necessary, and player injuries that affected teams' records."

I took that as "we simmed the league for 10 years with everything controlled by the game". The article though, is ambiguous to the point where I think they played 1 season 10x on the same setting, starting over after each, although it doesn't adequately explain what they did at all, and I gleamed that solely from the fact that they don't talk about any year after the 2024 season. If that's all they did, the insight that "injuries make a huge difference" is um... not much of an insight. And nothing nearly as dramatic as what happened in the first save I played where they lost 14 straight to start September and lost the division with Ohtani only getting 221 ABs and is on the 60 day to end the season more or less twice over. Or Buck Farmer injuring himself by getting beaned by the pitching machine which seems plausible if only he weren't a pitcher. Video games produce variance, more at 11!

It took typing all of that to say it's a preseason puff piece? Pretty much all predictions are preseason puff pieces, designed to generate interest in the upcoming season. Nobody knows who will be injured, come up from the minors and turn into a star, gets traded, suspended (Ohtani, not likely, but maybe?) etc. etc.

Now if you created a game, started that "one man creation" in your dorm room, and your game grows to the point of being used by someone like ESPN to simulate the upcoming season, that is a big deal. Even if it is a puff piece.

[Eugene Church]

Agree with Sweed, it is great news that ESPN is using Markus' wonderful OOTP game for preseason predictions.

That is promotion money can't buy.

When you run 10,000 simulations... I would take those predictions more seriously than I would Brian Kenny and all of the guys at MLB.net... and I respect Kenny and the Crew at MLB.

That's how good OOTP is!

[OmahaBaseball]

Originally Posted by CField17

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but I saw this while having my morning coffee. Way to go OOTP on the exposure! Not sure about the Dodgers over the Guardians outcome, but no one saw the DBacks in the WS last year so I guess anything is possible

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...-betts-freeman

Here we are at nearly the end of the 2024 MLB regular season and the Dodgers vs. Guardians is still looking pretty good.

[Recte44]

I certainly like this prediction:

World Series: Milwaukee Brewers over New York Yankees in 5 (MVP: Rhys Hoskins)

[uruguru]

Someone should tell them to wait for the release of OOTP 26 if they want the most accurate sim of 2024.

[Recte44]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Someone should tell them to wait for the release of OOTP 26 if they want the most accurate sim of 2024.

Not sure what you mean here.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by Recte44

Not sure what you mean here.

It was a joke. When OOTP 26 comes out, the 2024 season will be historical and all of the final player ratings for 2024 will be locked into the game. The sim will then be far more accurate.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by uruguru

It was a joke. When OOTP 26 comes out, the 2024 season will be historical and all of the final player ratings for 2024 will be locked into the game. The sim will then be far more accurate.

Plus the league totals will be locked allowing the sim to even more accurate

[Recte44]

Originally Posted by uruguru

It was a joke. When OOTP 26 comes out, the 2024 season will be historical and all of the final player ratings for 2024 will be locked into the game. The sim will then be far more accurate.

Got it!

[OmahaBaseball]

Originally Posted by OmahaBaseball

Here we are at nearly the end of the 2024 MLB regular season and the Dodgers vs. Guardians is still looking pretty good.

Well they got the Dodgers right...

[Guthrien]

Given the vagaries of baseball, that's not bad. I guess a lot of people had the Dodgers, but $$$ don't translate to World Series the way we'd guess. I don't remember anyone picking the Indians to get to the Championship game.