Baserunning Rating Question Marks

[khucke]

Several things here:
First only 16 players of 711 have an above average (>50) rating. Why is that?
Second: On the individual level I compared Baseball Savant baserunning numbers (that measure explictly base advancement not base stealing) with the game ratings. Here are the top 5 from Savant with their OOTP ratings (20-80)::

Gunnar Henderson 35
Bobby Witt 50
Corbin Carroll 50
Trea Turner 45
TJ Friedl 45

Generally the ratings are skewed to the low end and individually I find little logic in them

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by khucke

Gunnar Henderson 35
Bobby Witt 50
Corbin Carroll 50
Trea Turner 45
TJ Friedl 45

Generally the ratings are skewed to the low end and individually I find little logic in them

Do you have scouting turned on?

Because that's clearly not right for Henderson. He has a 181 running speed for his 'raw' rating. That's a 75 on the 20-80 scale. All those other guys have far better ratings than showing there.

So if you do have scouting on, that's probably the cause of the discrepancies here.

Now, that being said, I don't think it's necessarily right that we would have a scout be that far off on something fairly obvious to the naked eye, like running. So we may need to make some tweaks to scouting in-game as well.

[khucke]

I apologize for half a false alarm: the values I mentioned in my initial post are from a historical simulation up to the year 2023, 3-year recalac, real transactions and lineups, scouting off. So something might be wrong with the import function to produce the skewed baserunnung values I noticed.

The standard game values are scaled in a plausible way, bit on the individual level I see

Trout OOTP 80, Savant 167th of 354
N Allen OOTP 75 Savant 217th of 354
Berti OOTP 75 Savant 30th of 354
M Betts OOTP 75 Savant 118th of 354

I could continue this list. G Henderson for example is at OOTP 55. Not sure what the OOTP ratings are based upon, Could there be a mix-up with the SPEED category? I understood that SPEED is meant to be the ability to reach 1st on a bunt or an infield hit and BASERUNNING the ability to advance on the bases on flyout and basehits. Can you confirm that?

[Lukas Berger]

I don't think we based the speed purely on Baseball Savant, so I would not expect this to match perfectly. We rarely base any ratings 100% on any one source.

Speed incorporates more things than just reaching first, it also correlates somewhat with range and probably affects a few other areas as well.

I'd have to double check on that to make sure though.

[DJessup]

aka there's a bit of "fantasy" involved? I also look at some of the numbers on player sheets, even on PT, which doesn't use scouting, and I just can't help but laugh at a lot of them.

Like Will Benson's 118 speed? and TREA TURNER's 50?
I don't compare to Savant, I prefer other sites, but yeah, there are some questions about whatever is used to determine a lot of em.

(But I play your game the way you've made it, and try to adapt to the "fantasy" aspect, as compared to playing it as a "simulator". So I just play different players than the ones I really want and know should be somewhere.)

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by DJessup

aka there's a bit of "fantasy" involved? I also look at some of the numbers on player sheets, even on PT, which doesn't use scouting, and I just can't help but laugh at a lot of them.

Like Will Benson's 118 speed? and TREA TURNER's 50?
I don't compare to Savant, I prefer other sites, but yeah, there are some questions about whatever is used to determine a lot of em.

(But I play your game the way you've made it, and try to adapt to the "fantasy" aspect, as compared to playing it as a "simulator". So I just play different players than the ones I really want and know should be somewhere.)

Will Benson stole 19 bases in MLB last year and occasionally plays CF.

He's not slow

Turner, yeah, no idea where that came from. Will fix him.

[Lukas Berger]

I'm not saying there's no room for improvement here, there clearly is. Just that it's not so simple as just looking at Baseball Savant. Though, idk, maybe it should be? We could always use the Savant rankings here. We might try testing that out at some point in the future and doing it that way if it seems to work well.

[DJessup]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Will Benson stole 19 bases in MLB last year and occasionally plays CF.

He's not slow

Turner, yeah, no idea where that came from. Will fix him.

oh no! I'm definitely not saying he can't steal!! absolutely not!! HAHA
I'm more saying his 118 vs Trea's 55 (sorry 55 not 50. I just won my auction for him so he's VERY prominent on my mind these 3 days)
Carroll... 115
ACUNA RESET BASEBALL standards... stole SEVENTY and invented 3 clubs in the process...
...75???

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by DJessup

oh no! I'm definitely not saying he can't steal!! absolutely not!! HAHA
I'm more saying his 118 vs Trea's 55 (sorry 55 not 50. I just won my auction for him so he's VERY prominent on my mind these 3 days)
Carroll... 115
ACUNA RESET BASEBALL standards... stole SEVENTY and invented 3 clubs in the process...
...75???

EDIT: Disregard, I was just looking at the wrong scale.

[DJessup]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I'm not saying there's no room for improvement here, there clearly is. Just that it's not so simple as just looking at Baseball Savant. Though, idk, maybe it should be? We could always use the Savant rankings here. We might try testing that out at some point in the future and doing it that way if it seems to work well.

It isn't a bad shout, to make it at least feel a bit more accurate. It does feel sometimes like numbers are being pulled out of the clouds and posted in places. there is a rather extensive list, especially for statisticians like myself and khucke and millions more that follow teams and players for these exact reasons, and then want to play a game that can simulate who they idolize.

Myself, I play historical, in the Expansion Era (65-80) to follow my heroes I idolized 40 years ago. You follow a sport you love for over 40 years, and you can see glaring gaps pretty quick.

[Lukas Berger]

Ok, disregard my last post, I was just looking at a different scale than you were using. Your numbers seem right, so scouting is not a factor here.

Yeah, some of these do definitely seem off the more I look.

I'm not sure where we actually got these from as I look back. I know we imported them along with the ZIPS projections, so it may've been based on some baserunning field(s) there.

I think it will probably be better if we use the sprint speed data from Baseball Savant though. So we'll work on getting that fixed up in a patch.

[DJessup]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Ok, disregard my last post, I was just looking at a different scale than you were using. Your numbers seem right, so scouting is not a factor here.

Yeah, some of these do definitely seem off the more I look.

I'm not sure where we actually got these from as I look back. I know we imported them along with the ZIPS projections, so it may've been based on some baserunning field(s) there.

I think it will probably be better if we use the sprint speed data from Baseball Savant though. So we'll work on getting that fixed up in a patch.

Sounds great, thanks, Lukas. You're doing quite nicely, by the way.
And additionally, I am using speed not baserunning. You can't steal well without all of them. having a baserunning of 172 doesn't do any good if you have a speed of 35.
also! LOVE the new "Stealing Aggressiveness" stat for 25!!
but we did get onto a bit of a tangent away from the initial baserunning, although it extends past just that one stat and feeds off of one another.