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Old 07-14-2023, 01:14 PM   #1
Deft
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How often do you see this scenario

Reading some threads, I wanted to see if others run into a common scenario I encounter. I play 3D usually one pitch mode.

Team gets a rally and has the opposing starter on the ropes in mid-innings. One or two runs already in and runners on second and third sometimes with bases loaded and the heart of order coming up with no outs.
The AI team pulls the starter and puts in a spare long innings guy with terrible movement rating that happens to be not facing hitters from the same side of the plate (lefty pitcher/righty batter). I am thinking we can at least pick up one run maybe more but instead, the reliever comes in and strikes out the side or at least the first two and third hitter weakly getting out.

Whenever this happens I am always struck by what are the odd? Is it just the AI preserving the statistics of the outgoing pitcher or is the AI just better at knowing the right situation on bringing in the scrub. I have seen when the scrub starts an inning without inherited runners, he fairs much worse.
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Old 07-14-2023, 01:43 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deft View Post
Reading some threads, I wanted to see if others run into a common scenario I encounter. I play 3D usually one pitch mode.

Team gets a rally and has the opposing starter on the ropes in mid-innings. One or two runs already in and runners on second and third sometimes with bases loaded and the heart of order coming up with no outs.
The AI team pulls the starter and puts in a spare long innings guy with terrible movement rating that happens to be not facing hitters from the same side of the plate (lefty pitcher/righty batter). I am thinking we can at least pick up one run maybe more but instead, the reliever comes in and strikes out the side or at least the first two and third hitter weakly getting out.

Whenever this happens I am always struck by what are the odd? Is it just the AI preserving the statistics of the outgoing pitcher or is the AI just better at knowing the right situation on bringing in the scrub. I have seen when the scrub starts an inning without inherited runners, he fairs much worse.
I think it does seem like what you're saying is accurate, but in reality it might not be. And the reason I say that is the fanbase of every single team every single season since forever will always complain that their team can't hit with RISP or doesn't know how to situationally hit with RISP, etc. etc. etc. This is every fans complaint about their team every single season

And I do agree with you that it sure seems like striking out with men on 2nd and 3rd or just not being able to get the runs home is absolutely maddening,,,,, I think what we have to remember though is you fail way more than you succeed when you're at-bat, it just gets magnified in those situations with runners in scoring position.

Your point about bum pitchers always doing this, I haven't really noticed this. Going to a different thread that was recent on here, I suppose there could be some sort of momentum or confidence meter that is hidden to us and bringing in "the fireman" out of the bullpen maybe up-ticks ratings a bit? None of us have anything to back that up, but who knows.
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Old 07-18-2023, 11:15 PM   #3
bigd51
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I've seen many common scenarios from both teams:

I too have seen enough times to notice a trend where pitchers will load the bases w/ 0 outs only to end the inning exactly in the way you described; striking out the next two batters followed by a fielding out.

Too much 2-out magic. I can't tell you how much action and scoring I'm seeing happening w/ 2 outs; a lot of times w/ no one on base.

Way too many 1-inning meltdowns, especially in innings 3-5. Someone posted another thread the other day talking about 4th inning meltdowns and I'm seeing it too often myself. The most egregious example I've seen yet happened the other day...

Max Fried was my starting pitcher and had struck out 7 batters through the first 3 innings. He started the 4th inning by striking out his 8th batter of the game. 8 Ks in 3.1 innings now. All of a sudden, the wheels fell off, the car caught flames, then was smashed by a meteor.

He hit the next batter, walked the next 2, threw a wild pitch that scored the runner on third, then gave up a 3-run HR. 4 runs scored. Then a single, a double, another single that drove home 2 more runs, then capped it off by giving up a 2-run HR. An 8-run meltdown directly following his 8th K in 3.1 innings.

I've also been experiencing this weird thing where the majority of games I play w/ both teams having identical or close to the same number of runs and hits (and sometimes even errors)

Doesn't matter who's playing or pitching. Doesn't matter if I give full control of game decisions to my coaches or keep full control of all decisions for myself or however I play out the game. And that's not even counting the other numerous times I've had to CTRL+ALT+DEL exit the game due to meltdowns in the 3rd/4th/5th because it happens so often.

Some screenshots from just the last few days of playing games:

Identical game through 6 innings




6-run, 4th inning meltdown + identical hits/runs




7-run, 5th inning meltdown + near comeback and close to same hits/runs




8-run, 9th inning meltdown + comeback win w/ close to same hits/runs (very next game)




7-run, 9th inning meltdown + close to same hits/runs/errors




(3-game series against the Pirates)

8-run, 3rd inning meltdown + rare blowout win (game 1)




5-run, 8th-inning meltdown + near comeback and close to same hits/runs (game 2)




5-run, 8th-inning meltdown + near comeback (game 3)


Last edited by bigd51; 07-18-2023 at 11:21 PM.
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Old 07-19-2023, 02:34 AM   #4
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Another single-inning murder, this time by the current MLB strikeout leader (I intentionally left him in to see how far he would fall and it didn't disappoint)

The more I play through games, the more I think the engine is trying to "guide" or force you to make difficult choices for the sake of parity (i.e. taking a starter out in the early innings) instead of just letting things flow naturally:

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Old 07-19-2023, 11:21 AM   #5
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Maybe it’s just not a good game?
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Old 07-19-2023, 11:32 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigd51 View Post
Another single-inning murder, this time by the current MLB strikeout leader (I intentionally left him in to see how far he would fall and it didn't disappoint)

The more I play through games, the more I think the engine is trying to "guide" or force you to make difficult choices for the sake of parity (i.e. taking a starter out in the early innings) instead of just letting things flow naturally:

I think that would be harder to code than just letting the dice roll. To do what you are suggesting the code would have to keep track of the situation and then pull out the "desired pre-coded" result to mess with your game and mind.

Now if they just let the dice roll randomly and run that roll through the ratings, settings, etc to get an outcome? That's pretty easy to code.
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Old 07-19-2023, 12:41 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigd51 View Post

Way too many 1-inning meltdowns, especially in innings 3-5. Someone posted another thread the other day talking about 4th inning meltdowns and I'm seeing it too often myself.
I mean, to play devil's advocate, there were 15 games played in MLB last night and 8 different teams had at least one inning where they scored 5+ runs, including two games where *both* teams pulled it off (CHW-NYM, ARI-ATL). Even if you want to call last night an aberration, you can easily find two games on Monday's short schedule where a team scored 4 in the middle innings to bust open a game, and going back to Sunday you had a pair of teams that entered the 7th inning up 3-1 only to eventually lose 9-8 and 8-7 (Angels & Yankees, respectively) - with the Angels pulling that mere hours after both they & the Astros had 5+ runs in the 7th inning on Saturday.
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Old 07-19-2023, 12:46 PM   #8
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This thread kind of cancels itself out, no?

OP said there is an issue with not being able to knock in the runners who are in scoring position and not enough "big innings" as he is finding a lot of issues hitting w/ RISP when the computer goes to the bullpen in the middle innings...... That gets followed up by a response of there are too many big innings in the middle innings.

To have those two conflicting opinions, it kinda says everything balances out and is okay lol.
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Old 07-19-2023, 12:47 PM   #9
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One of the interesting things about randomness is that people will always see patterns in random distributions. This is because our brains are hardwired to see patterns and infer causality everywhere, which confers a survival advantage, so actual randomness is very difficult or impossible for us to detect.
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Old 07-21-2023, 12:08 AM   #10
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Just lost to the Cubs 8-4. 8 run 4th inning. Cubs had 11 hits, 9 in the 4th
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Old 08-10-2023, 08:24 PM   #11
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Sometimes pitchers lose it in a hurry. Have somebody up in the pen.
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Old 08-11-2023, 05:59 AM   #12
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Small sample size bias is all this is. Come back when you have data showing say 50+ games proving your issue, not 3 games. Even 50 is a very small sample, show a few seasons worth.

Show me data showing the odds probability for this to happen is astronomical. Show me data this has never happened in the MLB.

Don't show me you rage quitting cause you left your starter in for too long and they **** they bed.

We see multiple threads of this every year, yet very rarely has any provided data to back up any claims. It's on you to provide the proof
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Old 08-11-2023, 07:46 AM   #13
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8 hits, 7 runs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jasper70 View Post
Just lost to the Cubs 8-4. 8 run 4th inning. Cubs had 11 hits, 9 in the 4th
And?

Hendricks had a no hitter after 3 innings in this game. I watched the game live and the Braves looked clueless. Then the 4th inning happened (8 hits, 7 runs). This stuff does happen and anyone that watches baseball knows it. Oh yeah I know, but it happens in OOTP all of the time (and only to the human team). Right?
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Old 08-11-2023, 09:41 AM   #14
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https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...00204060.shtml

It took Smoltz the entire season to get his ERA to recover after this.
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