Fictional League BABIP swinging wildly

Joelman111 · 11-16-2022, 08:11 PM

Hey all, I've been working on setting up the perfect fictional league that roughly matches MLB statistical output from the early-mid 2010s. I've noticed that BABIP plays a large role in how the best pitchers perform in the league.

Specifically, for the first few years in the league the BABIP starts around .280 and I have several pitchers with an ERA below 3 (league ERA is about 4). Then, the BABIP slowly creeps upwards over time until it hits about .305 at which point there are almost never pitchers with an ERA below 3 (maybe 2 a year at most). Yes, the batting average always increases over this time as well, no matter what I set the contact PCM to (I've ranged from .9 to 1.1 without seeing this trend change). I had the BABIP set to .298 the entire time on my LTM page.

Any idea on how to stabilize this? Does the LTM BABIP actually do anything?

Dutch Alexander · 11-17-2022, 02:56 AM

You should start your league about 20 years before you actually want to start. The initial batch of players are always different from the players created later. If you sim 20 years and delete history you get rid of the initial batch. In my tests the league totals are always out of whack the first few years with the initial batch of players. In previous versions of the game this was worse.

Sweed · 11-17-2022, 09:04 AM

Are you using autocalc on opening day to redo the LTM's after every season? Or at least running it every few years? You will see stat creep, not just in babip, if you don't occasionally run autocalc. Of course if you are running autocalc and seeing this then I'm not sure what is going on as I run AC every year and my babip, along with all stats, stay within expectations.

Joelman111 · 11-17-2022, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweed

Are you using autocalc on opening day to redo the LTM's after every season? Or at least running it every few years? You will see stat creep, not just in babip, if you don't occasionally run autocalc. Of course if you are running autocalc and seeing this then I'm not sure what is going on as I run AC every year and my babip, along with all stats, stay within expectations.

My goal is to avoid doing that. I would like to keep my LTM the same throughout my sim so that I have organic periods of higher/lower offense. It would be fine if BABIP moved slightly and unpredictably, but it always seems to move the same way over time and it does not match my BABIP LTM.

Rain King · 11-17-2022, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joelman111

My goal is to avoid doing that. I would like to keep my LTM the same throughout my sim so that I have organic periods of higher/lower offense. It would be fine if BABIP moved slightly and unpredictably, but it always seems to move the same way over time and it does not match my BABIP LTM.

I think Dutch's suggestion to sim ahead before starting is your best bet then.

11-16-2022, 08:11 PM	#1
Joelman111 Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2019 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 125	Fictional League BABIP swinging wildly Hey all, I've been working on setting up the perfect fictional league that roughly matches MLB statistical output from the early-mid 2010s. I've noticed that BABIP plays a large role in how the best pitchers perform in the league. Specifically, for the first few years in the league the BABIP starts around .280 and I have several pitchers with an ERA below 3 (league ERA is about 4). Then, the BABIP slowly creeps upwards over time until it hits about .305 at which point there are almost never pitchers with an ERA below 3 (maybe 2 a year at most). Yes, the batting average always increases over this time as well, no matter what I set the contact PCM to (I've ranged from .9 to 1.1 without seeing this trend change). I had the BABIP set to .298 the entire time on my LTM page. Any idea on how to stabilize this? Does the LTM BABIP actually do anything? __________________ Just a Pirates fan looking for his McCutchen

11-17-2022, 02:56 AM	#2
Dutch Alexander All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Amsterdam Posts: 712	You should start your league about 20 years before you actually want to start. The initial batch of players are always different from the players created later. If you sim 20 years and delete history you get rid of the initial batch. In my tests the league totals are always out of whack the first few years with the initial batch of players. In previous versions of the game this was worse. Last edited by Dutch Alexander; 11-17-2022 at 03:30 AM.

11-17-2022, 09:04 AM	#3
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 6,646	Are you using autocalc on opening day to redo the LTM's after every season? Or at least running it every few years? You will see stat creep, not just in babip, if you don't occasionally run autocalc. Of course if you are running autocalc and seeing this then I'm not sure what is going on as I run AC every year and my babip, along with all stats, stay within expectations.