Slick willy not so slick

Drivehud.com · 10-30-2021, 07:15 PM

Anyone have any deviation math to figure out the odds of this stinker so far for Ted Williams? Smallish sample size, but still..

Play4Thrills · 10-30-2021, 08:51 PM

Last season, in 531 PA, Joe Morgan put up a .245 OBP and a .256 SLG to net an OPS+ of 39. The .500 OPS was a full .200 below the seasons immediately preceding and following it (the .762 he had this season was in only 282 PA).

So, if you can have -.200 OPS stinkers like that over 500 PAs, I'm pretty sure you can have -.400 OPS stinkers over 100 PAs.

Edit: also check out this nonsense from Andrelton Simmons!

bailey · 10-31-2021, 02:29 PM

Because every card can't be a hero despite the name of the set. It is well known that high power does not play well in OOTP.

Clavette · 10-31-2021, 08:57 PM

Williams shouldn't hit .160.

Itll be interesting to see a full week of stats this upcoming week

Drivehud.com · 11-01-2021, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

Because every card can't be a hero despite the name of the set. It is well known that high power does not play well in OOTP.

High power isn't the only thing williams has going for him. This was his final line last season.

The variance for someone w/ basic stats like this seems a bit off to me. As someone who works w/ standard deviation a lot, even in a small sample, and understanding that good hitters can go through crazy slumps, and in this game they are facing the best pitchers... all of that is really relative because we have numbers created by the game that should counter most of this when compared to other hitters:

Just seems off, but maybe not.

chazzycat · 11-01-2021, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

It is well known that high power does not play well in OOTP.

This was true at one point, but I think the community has actually taken this too far, and power is underrated now.

ncap99 · 11-05-2021, 05:10 AM

Williams has done fine for me starting against righties only. Not a great average (.249) but high OBP (.374) due to very high eye rating (another underrated stat) and lots of pop (10 HRs in 197 ABs).

And I don't think it is that high power doesn't play, it is that for the most part up until the last few drops high power meant low avoid K and mediocre at best contact. The contact rate on cards like McGwire were so bad that even hitting 30+ HRs wasn't enough for the card to be valuable. A guy hitting .230 with 30+ HRs and a high walk rate is extremely valuable in diamond+ leagues. Pretty much any card that can get you .800+ OPS on a regular basis is amazing in diamond+, regardless if that comes from power and walks or a high BA.

I think in general people get disappointed when their Pete Rose doesn't hit .350 or their Lou Gehrig doesn't hit 40 HRs. But wouldn't you be equally disappointed if your Greg Maddux had a 4.6 ERA every year? Because that would be the cost of all these historically great hitters achieving anything near their average career stats. They weren't facing hall of fame pitchers every at bat.

DotDash · 11-05-2021, 08:19 AM

Across three diamond leagues, the Ted Williamses with more than 100 PA so far this season (10,076 PA in total) have combined for the following stat line:
.237 AVG, .339 OBP, .448 SLG (.787 OPS)

He averages about 0.005 WAR per PA, so 3 WAR based on a 600 PA season. Average OPS+ is 115, so 15% above average performance for the position.
I think Ted Williams's performance is hurt by the influx of very good LHP that were released at the same time, but it's still a good card on average.

ncap99 · 11-05-2021, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DotDash

Across three diamond leagues, the Ted Williamses with more than 100 PA so far this season (10,076 PA in total) have combined for the following stat line:
.237 AVG, .339 OBP, .448 SLG (.787 OPS)

He averages about 0.005 WAR per PA, so 3 WAR based on a 600 PA season. Average OPS+ is 115, so 15% above average performance for the position.
I think Ted Williams's performance is hurt by the influx of very good LHP that were released at the same time, but it's still a good card on average.

Really good analysis. I agree he has been hurt by the influx of top tier lefties, and those numbers are probably weighed down a bit by some people using him against LHP starters or not having opener lineups configured properly. I would guess somewhere in the .800 OPS range is where he is at which has a lot of value.

10-30-2021, 07:15 PM	#1
Drivehud.com Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 252	Slick willy not so slick Anyone have any deviation math to figure out the odds of this stinker so far for Ted Williams? Smallish sample size, but still.. __________________

10-30-2021, 08:51 PM	#2
Play4Thrills Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2021 Posts: 57	Last season, in 531 PA, Joe Morgan put up a .245 OBP and a .256 SLG to net an OPS+ of 39. The .500 OPS was a full .200 below the seasons immediately preceding and following it (the .762 he had this season was in only 282 PA). So, if you can have -.200 OPS stinkers like that over 500 PAs, I'm pretty sure you can have -.400 OPS stinkers over 100 PAs. Edit: also check out this nonsense from Andrelton Simmons! Last edited by Play4Thrills; 10-30-2021 at 08:57 PM.

11-05-2021, 08:19 AM	#8
DotDash Minors (Double A) Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 135	Across three diamond leagues, the Ted Williamses with more than 100 PA so far this season (10,076 PA in total) have combined for the following stat line: .237 AVG, .339 OBP, .448 SLG (.787 OPS) He averages about 0.005 WAR per PA, so 3 WAR based on a 600 PA season. Average OPS+ is 115, so 15% above average performance for the position. I think Ted Williams's performance is hurt by the influx of very good LHP that were released at the same time, but it's still a good card on average. __________________ Last edited by DotDash; 11-05-2021 at 08:21 AM. Reason: Edit.

10-31-2021, 02:29 PM	#3
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,419	Because every card can't be a hero despite the name of the set. It is well known that high power does not play well in OOTP.

10-31-2021, 08:57 PM	#4
Clavette Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Connecticut Posts: 371	Williams shouldn't hit .160. Itll be interesting to see a full week of stats this upcoming week

11-05-2021, 05:10 AM	#7
ncap99 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2021 Posts: 319	Williams has done fine for me starting against righties only. Not a great average (.249) but high OBP (.374) due to very high eye rating (another underrated stat) and lots of pop (10 HRs in 197 ABs). And I don't think it is that high power doesn't play, it is that for the most part up until the last few drops high power meant low avoid K and mediocre at best contact. The contact rate on cards like McGwire were so bad that even hitting 30+ HRs wasn't enough for the card to be valuable. A guy hitting .230 with 30+ HRs and a high walk rate is extremely valuable in diamond+ leagues. Pretty much any card that can get you .800+ OPS on a regular basis is amazing in diamond+, regardless if that comes from power and walks or a high BA. I think in general people get disappointed when their Pete Rose doesn't hit .350 or their Lou Gehrig doesn't hit 40 HRs. But wouldn't you be equally disappointed if your Greg Maddux had a 4.6 ERA every year? Because that would be the cost of all these historically great hitters achieving anything near their average career stats. They weren't facing hall of fame pitchers every at bat.