Evaluating talent

[Birdland24]

Just trying to get an idea/opinions on how people evaluate their players?
Do you use stats? Which ones? How do you gauge a good defender? Most scouting reports don’t mention much D from what I’ve seen.
I tend to get wrapped up in the potential ratings I use the 20-80 scale. I also tend to watch players with higher potential and often look over guys that are performing well.

Just trying to get better at managing my minor leagues and helping my organization.

Thanks for any help and suggestions.


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[NoOne]

make filters for various levels of individual ratings... batting, pitching.. maybe even for SS/CF/C, since those are sometimes special situations, but for most part you pick players based on offensive ability on the fielder's side of things and drafting is more about best talent possible, becuase it is a total crapshoot anyway. take what you get, and don't reach.

when looking for a leadoff hitter, you don't look for same attributes as a clean up hitter.

Potential may be useful, but start focusing on individual ratings relative to the role you need to fill. Especially with SP, you'll find many other factors are relevant to success that don't often get weighed properly by pot/overall.

[luckymann]

Don't mean to state the obvious, but keep in mind that OVR - the overall rating - is just that. It rates all of the different aspects of a players game. So a no hit gold glover will have the latter offset the former to whatever degree the relative merits of each deserve.

So your analysis needs to be of individual ratings and stats according to what you seek from the player in question.

[progen]

Just trying to get an idea/opinions on how people evaluate their players?
Do you use stats? Which ones? How do you gauge a good defender? Most scouting reports don’t mention much D from what I’ve seen.
I tend to get wrapped up in the potential ratings I use the 20-80 scale. I also tend to watch players with higher potential and often look over guys that are performing well.

Just trying to get better at managing my minor leagues and helping my organization.

Thanks for any help and suggestions.

*Here are some good reads on evaluating players. There's probably a lot more out there if you do a search. I printed out a ratings spreadsheet similar to this, that I keep in front of me when deciding on players.

With the exception of the "general ratings", which show speed, stealing, fielding ratings, and stamina/hold runners for pitchers, I play stats only. Never stars, no pitching ratings, no "basic batting ratings" for positional players. Some will say unrealistic, but I like the challenge of purely looking at OBP, OPS, ZR for fielding, WAR, ERA+ WHIP, etc., and deciding on who to sign, or draft. I then set up a spreadsheet with my draft picks, and follow them through their career to see how well I am at drafting. Anyway, hope some of this info will help.

Rating Position Players - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...uating+players

User Studies - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=314350

Minor League Management - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...gue+management

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Don't mean to state the obvious, but keep in mind that OVR - the overall rating - is just that. It rates all of the different aspects of a players game. So a no hit gold glover will have the latter offset the former to whatever degree the relative merits of each deserve.

So your analysis needs to be of individual ratings and stats according to what you seek from the player in question.

overall is correlated... but you can do much better

overall is not used as a variable in any probability the game runs through. The individual ratings are, thought... not all ratings involve in overall are important inany roll of the dice. You can see how overall is not the same as what i said

overall has uses, but but not a good way to pick players or even sorting players.

Role of what you are looking for helps slim this down.. For a laedoff hitter, i'd want a higher minimum contact and decent eye.. I'd also remove teh eye qualification for the oddball craazy high max+ contact guys with crap eyes... if the obp stays high with more hits, that's ony a good thing. while i would glance at the speed column, it is not important enough to rule out a player filtering for it. Overall cannot do this... many different combinations of ratings result in the same overall rating... overall ratings are loosely correlated to results. For the ai, proably best compard to stats, but for a human, it is poop.

custom views are often better than what they offer too. i have one for fielders and one for pitching. i remove useless stuff like jersey number and other asthetic things.

you example of a gold glover or whatever... i'd love to compare a team with ratings bloated by defense and other ancillary factors compared to one with same overall but can actually hit the ball... i'd bet my house they crush the defensive minded team more times sthan not over 100+ games. The point is overal is not perfectly weighted...even more so if it doesn't adjust to League Totals, as power means different things with different HR/AB league totals. if overall doesn't adjust for this stuff, it is even less useful than i have have mentioned.

[NoOne]

Originally Posted by progen

Just trying to get an idea/opinions on how people evaluate their players?
Do you use stats? Which ones? How do you gauge a good defender? Most scouting reports donÂ’t mention much D from what IÂ’ve seen.
I tend to get wrapped up in the potential ratings I use the 20-80 scale. I also tend to watch players with higher potential and often look over guys that are performing well.

Just trying to get better at managing my minor leagues and helping my organization.

Thanks for any help and suggestions.

*Here are some good reads on evaluating players. There's probably a lot more out there if you do a search. I printed out a ratings spreadsheet similar to this, that I keep in front of me when deciding on players.

With the exception of the "general ratings", which show speed, stealing, fielding ratings, and stamina/hold runners for pitchers, I play stats only. Never stars, no pitching ratings, no "basic batting ratings" for positional players. Some will say unrealistic, but I like the challenge of purely looking at OBP, OPS, ZR for fielding, WAR, ERA+ WHIP, etc., and deciding on who to sign, or draft. I then set up a spreadsheet with my draft picks, and follow them through their career to see how well I am at drafting. Anyway, hope some of this info will help.

Rating Position Players - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...uating+players

User Studies - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=314350

Minor League Management - https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...gue+management

Stats only is still fundamentally the same process... The difference is you see information that is bit older than an updated scouting report. Stats lag behind player changes... obviously, a player must have a ratings change to cause a change in results... it takes time for this new sample to become clear to the human eye. hence, stats are a lagging indicator.

They still are directly calculated from ratigns... so even if you don't try to calculate the exact rating, you do understand the ballpark they are in. more years of data, better idea of true median result of a player and likely volatility.


some ratings will be way easier to discern thaan say "contact"... but i would break contact down into the individual parts anway...

babip, avoid k's and power all equate to the contact rating. This is how the same exact contact can have drastically different resutls as far as likely BA. it's not actually the "same."

so, i'd look at what stats directly translate.. somtime more complicated like contact, and approach it the same way as before... but with a little less resolution, little more guessing with small sample sizes (volatility muddies water).

Defense is easy.. you see the rtings.. some positions need more than others (C/SS/CF). Any borderline SS i'm looking for an opportunity to move to 3b or 2b before they age much.. Because C offense is so limited, i rarely go for a "good" bat relative to C because it is actualyl a not so good bat overall. Rarely are they worthwhile offensively in a consistent way and even injury free only play 75% of the time.

at SS/Cf, bad defense is more likely overcome with players that have some good offensive skill. These are positions i do like have some minimum range and error ratings, though. they are ballpark ideas, though.

[Pelican]

I am finding though that a guy with great stats for, say, 1959, who had an off year in 1960, will play less well in 1960, regardless of those stats. Not sure it’s always equally true that an off year in ‘59 and a great year in ‘60 would mean that the guy would excel in q 1960 Season replay despite the bad ‘59 stats.

[ezpkns34]

Originally Posted by Pelican

I am finding though that a guy with great stats for, say, 1959, who had an off year in 1960, will play less well in 1960, regardless of those stats. Not sure it’s always equally true that an off year in ‘59 and a great year in ‘60 would mean that the guy would excel in q 1960 Season replay despite the bad ‘59 stats.

An off year usually means they play less well that year, yes?

[nymetsfan5]

For pitching, my go to stat is always K/BB. Having a high K/BB ratio means that a pitcher is good at at least one thing.