Why is the game so bad with Ichiro's HOF candidacy?

[zasman213]

By all accounts, Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer once he's eligible. I would be shocked if he didn't get in on the first year.

I just finished his third year on the ballot in my current sim and his voting has gone:

2025: 59.4%
2026: 69.2%
2027: 73.9%

I'm sure he'll cross the threshold in 2028, but why is it so much more difficult for him to reach the HOF in the game? *Maybe* he won't be a first ballot HOFer, but I can't see him failing to cross the 60% threshold. Cano made it on the first ballot in my sim and Ichiro has a way stronger case.

[Ktulu]

Because he's a unique case.

Ichiro had a lot of hits, but he didn't walk and didn't slug. The game is going to weight all metrics and not see all the the extra things that make him a surefire HOF in real life.

If he was a fictional player in any of my fictional universes he most likely wouldn't get in with a ~60 WAR career.

[Matt Arnold]

Yeah, a few pieces:
-by default, our historical data doesn't really import historical fielding data, so players essentially end up being net 0 fielding, whereas IRL Ichiro gained some value from positive fielding metrics
-He's not great on some of the HOF metrics like Grey Ink, HOF Standards, or JAWS, because it doesn't give a ton of credit for hits, but value HR, RBI, etc.. more
-Our HOF also only counts contributions from each league separately. So we only value him at barely over 3000 career hits, where IRL, they will value the 1200+ hits he put up there in the record, and adjust for the fact that he started his career late.

It's definitely one of those cases where it's hard to codify the person without a special case if (name == Ichiro) hof = yes.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by zasman213

By all accounts, Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer once he's eligible. I would be shocked if he didn't get in on the first year.

I just finished his third year on the ballot in my current sim and his voting has gone:

2025: 59.4%
2026: 69.2%
2027: 73.9%

I'm sure he'll cross the threshold in 2028, but why is it so much more difficult for him to reach the HOF in the game? *Maybe* he won't be a first ballot HOFer, but I can't see him failing to cross the 60% threshold. Cano made it on the first ballot in my sim and Ichiro has a way stronger case.

Did he perform in your sim like he did real life?

How about his competitors?

His real life performance isn't relevant to him making HOF in the sim.

[slugga27]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Did he perform in your sim like he did real life?

How about his competitors?

His real life performance isn't relevant to him making HOF in the sim.

I’m almost positive the OP’s universe started in 2021. So yes, real life stats are ALL that matters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by slugga27

i’m almost positive the op’s universe started in 2021. So yes, real life stats are all that matters.


Sent from my iphone using tapatalk

oh. Ok.

[zasman213]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Yeah, a few pieces:
-by default, our historical data doesn't really import historical fielding data, so players essentially end up being net 0 fielding, whereas IRL Ichiro gained some value from positive fielding metrics
-He's not great on some of the HOF metrics like Grey Ink, HOF Standards, or JAWS, because it doesn't give a ton of credit for hits, but value HR, RBI, etc.. more
-Our HOF also only counts contributions from each league separately. So we only value him at barely over 3000 career hits, where IRL, they will value the 1200+ hits he put up there in the record, and adjust for the fact that he started his career late.

It's definitely one of those cases where it's hard to codify the person without a special case if (name == Ichiro) hof = yes.

That makes a lot of sense. After I posted this I realized that it was probably a very weird edge case, especially given that IRL his dominance in Japan is also factored in. That said, I can't imagine any player who crosses the 3000 hit threshold to not get in on first ballot.

Just curious, for Black/Gray Ink, are all stats weighed evenly? Like does finishing Top 10 for RBIs generate the same output as like, Stolen Bases? Also what exactly goes into HOF Standards? I'll notice that if say a guy wins MVP he's Monitor will go up but his Standards won't move, so I imagine Standards is entirely based on statistics?

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by zasman213

That makes a lot of sense. After I posted this I realized that it was probably a very weird edge case, especially given that IRL his dominance in Japan is also factored in. That said, I can't imagine any player who crosses the 3000 hit threshold to not get in on first ballot.



Just curious, for Black/Gray Ink, are all stats weighed evenly? Like does finishing Top 10 for RBIs generate the same output as like, Stolen Bases? Also what exactly goes into HOF Standards? I'll notice that if say a guy wins MVP he's Monitor will go up but his Standards won't move, so I imagine Standards is entirely based on statistics?

Baseball reference has some good descriptions of them. We don't 100% match them, but do what we can to get close to the same numbers. And we do add bonuses for 3k hits and milestones there, but also have to be a little careful since there have recently been guys like Sosa or Palmeiro who hit big milestones but aren't sniffing election.

[zasman213]

Originally Posted by zasman213

By all accounts, Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer once he's eligible. I would be shocked if he didn't get in on the first year.

I just finished his third year on the ballot in my current sim and his voting has gone:

2025: 59.4%
2026: 69.2%
2027: 73.9%

I'm sure he'll cross the threshold in 2028, but why is it so much more difficult for him to reach the HOF in the game? *Maybe* he won't be a first ballot HOFer, but I can't see him failing to cross the 60% threshold. Cano made it on the first ballot in my sim and Ichiro has a way stronger case.

So weird. Just got the results from my 2028 HOF voting and his percentage actually *decreased* to below 70%

[SirSaab]

Originally Posted by zasman213

So weird. Just got the results from my 2028 HOF voting and his percentage actually *decreased* to below 70%

I just manually induct guys that I feel are deserving, if they fail to make the cut. I don’t do it often (I’ve only manually inducted 3 or four people), and darn it, it gives me enjoyment. Then I chuckle to myself a bit when guys like Schilling don’t get inducted. For such a hard nosed player, he’s sure gotten really whiny LOL

[Maurice Thorez]

Originally Posted by zasman213

By all accounts, Ichiro will be a first ballot HOFer once he's eligible. I would be shocked if he didn't get in on the first year.

I just finished his third year on the ballot in my current sim and his voting has gone:

2025: 59.4%
2026: 69.2%
2027: 73.9%

I'm sure he'll cross the threshold in 2028, but why is it so much more difficult for him to reach the HOF in the game? *Maybe* he won't be a first ballot HOFer, but I can't see him failing to cross the 60% threshold. Cano made it on the first ballot in my sim and Ichiro has a way stronger case.

This pains me a bit to say as a long time Mariners fan, especially with Ichiro being one of the bright lights in a team with many rough years in the past two decades, but I think this closely reflects how Ichiro's HOF ballot will likely play out. If anything I might say it is a bit too high of a vote percentage in the first few rounds.


As much as I hate to say, Ichiro is an edge case for the HOF. He has counting stats and the personality/character that more traditional HOF voters like. However, they are dwindling in numbers with recent changes to HOF voter pool and new generations of analytics savvy voters replacing them.



Truthfully even when it comes to "traditionalists" Ichiro is a bit of a long shot to be a certain favourite. Going off my memory and some quick double-checking there are few examples of corner OFs without high HR totals(400-500+) being inducted into the HOF in the last 20 years. Harold Baines, Henderson, Tim Raines, and Tony Gwynn are the only ones that come to mind. Of those the first two have at least twice as many HRs as Ichiro and the former was a Veterans Committee inductee. Of the later two, Gwynn had extra MLB years and production on Ichiro while Raines basically had to become a cause celebre to get inducted.


Voters more tuned into analytics might be even less friendly to Ichiro. I can see some readily ignoring the 3,000 hit barometre while focusing in on his 57.8 fWAR being below the soft 60 career fWAR minimum standard I have seen thrown around.


To be clear and to avoid accusations of pessimism, I think Ichiro should and will get into the HOF for so many reasons. Even if his career MLB numbers do not make a HOF career in isolation, everything from his uniquely exceptional hit tool, to his legendary cannon of an arm, to his persona, to being the first player from Asia to become a star in the MLB make him clearly a worthy candidate.



If I were to hazard a guess, the lack of ideal career stats will delay his election until his 4th or 5th time on the ballot. That all said, I would love to be totally wrong on this and see voters factor in his career in Japan or what he represents to put him in on the first ballot.

[Mancandy]

Lol yeah you’re totally wrong on this. Ichiro is absolutely a no doubt first ballot Hall Of Famer. There’s zero chance he doesn’t get in the first time he’s eligible.

If you search “Ichiro Hall Of Fame” on Google, the only question that comes up is whether or not he’ll be unanimous. I don’t think he’ll be unanimous but I think he easily clears 90%.