Historical Draft Rookies Too Good

1991Twins · 03-08-2021, 11:47 PM

Is it normal in historical leagues for players to be drafted in the winter draft and then have ratings good enough to play? I seem to have guys who jump straight to the majors that did not in real life. If it is a settings issue, what settings would best be suggested to avoid this? I’ve tried 1/3/5 year recalc.

Brad K · 03-09-2021, 03:50 PM

Some of them. Remember the players in this draft played their first MLB season following the draft. You're not drafting High School kids who are several years away.

You say " I seem to have guys who jump straight to the majors that did not in real life". They did. The players in the draft DID play the following year in MLB.

If a player did very poorly on a low number of ABs or IPs, he may be rated better than that performance, which isn't reliable due to low sample size. He also may be rated better than that in his first year if his second year had a lot of ABs and he was very good (assuming you're using more than current year as basis).

David Watts · 03-09-2021, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Some of them. Remember the players in this draft played their first MLB season following the draft. You're not drafting High School kids who are several years away.

You say " I seem to have guys who jump straight to the majors that did not in real life". They did. The players in the draft DID play the following year in MLB.

If a player did very poorly on a low number of ABs or IPs, he may be rated better than that performance, which isn't reliable due to low sample size. He also may be rated better than that in his first year if his second year had a lot of ABs and he was very good (assuming you're using more than current year as basis).

I'm wondering if 1991 Twins is using historical minors? That could mean he is talking about guys that aren't entering the draft the offseason prior to their MLB debuts.

1991Twins · 03-09-2021, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

I'm wondering if 1991 Twins is using historical minors? That could mean he is talking about guys that aren't entering the draft the offseason prior to their MLB debuts.

David, this is exactly what I am referring to. Case in point, I do a simulation of the 2000 season. In December, Joe Mauer imports. Mauer played the entire season at age 18 in the big leagues and hit about .290 in the sim. Would you suggest not using historical minors?

HumanRainDelay · 03-10-2021, 05:37 PM

Interesting topic 1991Twins, and I hope you get your answer.

In my historical sim, I drafted Pete Incaviglia, but am making him go through the minors. His ratings would have made him ok to make the jump as he did in real life. I'll have to see if I am making the right decision or not.

It was interesting to note that the MLB rule about not trading drafted players until 1 year later was implemented because of Incaviglia. He was drafted by the Expos but refused to play in the minors resulting in him being traded to Texas.

1991Twins · 03-11-2021, 12:35 AM

HumanRainDelay, appreciate you chiming in with your experiences. I'm hoping one of the historical gurus can maybe give me some wisdom and advice. By far historical is my favorite way to play. I also know that many vets on the boards know way more than I do about its workings, so I am excited to hopefully learn more.

I do remember that Incaviglia was the guy who set the tone for this. I'm interested to see how he plays out in your league, keep me updated.

Sidenote: The Mickey Hatcher glove is one of my favorite baseball cards. The fact that he kept the glove after the photo shoot and would randomly break it out makes it even better!!!

David Watts · 03-11-2021, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1991Twins

David, this is exactly what I am referring to. Case in point, I do a simulation of the 2000 season. In December, Joe Mauer imports. Mauer played the entire season at age 18 in the big leagues and hit about .290 in the sim. Would you suggest not using historical minors?

Wish I could answer your question, but I have next to zero experience when it comes to using historical minors. I think my biggest issue is, I like the guys that play in my historical leagues to be guys that actually played at the major league level. I don't want to see some cat that never played a second in the big leagues start over Eddie Brinkman at SS for the Tigers.

Brad K · 03-11-2021, 12:05 PM

Same here. I've never done historical minors. Never even thought about it.

I generally don't bring up players if their first year was limited ML time, But that's mostly because they aren't good enough to push a regular out of a job and they can't play enough positions well to be a good bench player. I'd rather have a 1.5 or 2.0 star veteran who can play 3 positions than a 2.0 or 2.5 rookies who can play 1 position.

As a side note, I recommend using historical rookies not a draft. In a draft a human can cherry pick players likely to be good just on name recognition. There's still an advantage on historical rookies because you can know who not to trade but the advantage is less. AI needs some help. I remain surprised the game doesn't have a help AI setting with various amounts of help.

David Watts · 03-11-2021, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Same here. I've never done historical minors. Never even thought about it.

I generally don't bring up players if their first year was limited ML time, But that's mostly because they aren't good enough to push a regular out of a job and they can't play enough positions well to be a good bench player. I'd rather have a 1.5 or 2.0 star veteran who can play 3 positions than a 2.0 or 2.5 rookies who can play 1 position.

As a side note, I recommend using historical rookies not a draft. In a draft a human can cherry pick players likely to be good just on name recognition. There's still an advantage on historical rookies because you can know who not to trade but the advantage is less. AI needs some help. I remain surprised the game doesn't have a help AI setting with various amounts of help.

At times I do wish we had another option in regards to the database in which players arrived for the draft at their draft ages and not at their MLB debut age. My wish is for this to only involve guys that actually made it to the bigs. The example above of Mauer entering the draft at 18 is a perfect example. I just don't want to see Wilber Packofsocks playing in my replay.

Brad K · 03-11-2021, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

At times I do wish we had another option in regards to the database in which players arrived for the draft at their draft ages and not at their MLB debut age. My wish is for this to only involve guys that actually made it to the bigs. The example above of Mauer entering the draft at 18 is a perfect example. I just don't want to see Wilber Packofsocks playing in my replay.

What about guys who made the ML debut late? Kent Tukulve (27), Ricardo Rincon (27), Jung Ho Kang (28), etc. How would you set their draft date?

David Watts · 03-11-2021, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

What about guys who made the ML debut late? Kent Tukulve (27), Ricardo Rincon (27), Jung Ho Kang (28), etc. How would you set their draft date?

Yeah, they would be total what-if guys. Hoyt Wilhem is the guy that comes to my mind first. Dude didn't debut in the majors till he was 29 years old and then pitched till the age of 49. I'm sure some could tell you how the old Spritze db dealt with those types.

Brad K · 03-11-2021, 05:57 PM

Something else. Use the development engine without recalc and those guys crash immediately.

David Watts · 03-11-2021, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

Something else. Use the development engine without recalc and those guys crash immediately.

I was wondering about that. Also, I wonder how the really late bloomers would bear up under the make bad settings used by recalc. In the end it's probably a Pandora's box better left unopened.

Brad K · 03-12-2021, 03:17 AM

When I played development only (on a prior version of the game) the late bloomers never bloomed.

1991Twins · 03-13-2021, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

I generally don't bring up players if their first year was limited ML time, But that's mostly because they aren't good enough to push a regular out of a job and they can't play enough positions well to be a good bench player. I'd rather have a 1.5 or 2.0 star veteran who can play 3 positions than a 2.0 or 2.5 rookies who can play 1 position.

This is how I try to play things out as well. When using the historical minors, it boggles my mind that some players in the draft import the year they were drafted almost fully developed. Honestly, the chronic offenders are the ones that were sure fire HOF type players or guys who were consistently in the Mid-Summer Classic. Having said that, I would still think that if you decided to have recalc off that their current ratings would be lower to begin with and the ceiling would be high.

Historical rookies may also be the ticket because then you can't cheat the system. Although, I do know that Action Jackson uses some sort of spreadsheet to evaluate the worth of each player from doing some research. Curious as to how that works.

Brad K · 03-13-2021, 05:47 PM

I appreciate the info on historical minors. It has helped decrease my never very large interest in using it!!!

1991Twins · 03-13-2021, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

I appreciate the info on historical minors. It has helped decrease my never very large interest in using it!!!

I've enjoyed some of the suggestions in this thread and others too in order to give me ideas for how to use historical. Random historical debut seems interesting as well. It's nice to know that others around here are as excited about historical sims as I am. I may have to see what turning off historical minors is like

Brad K · 03-13-2021, 09:52 PM

If you turn off historical minors you might have a shortage of replacement players for the first year or two.

Lets say you have a historical start in 1980 and elect not to import complete history. What you will get is players who played MLB in 1980. If during the season the real life team had a SS injured for a couple weeks and called up a AAA SS to cover the injury time, you'll get both the SS who was injured and his temporary replacement from AAA. Both were MLB players in 1980. However if the real life team didn't have any SS injuries and didn't call up a AAA shortstop, you won't have that AAA/MLB SS to call up if you have a SS injury.

There are several partial solutions. You could play with injuries set to OFF for a couple of years. You could let the game run a couple of years on its own and let AI deal with the headaches, then take over a team.

What I've done on my current game is import entire history and then delete all player records before starting. This has the advantages of don't import complete history but provides more players. Since full history was imported a player who played MLB before and after 1980 but not during 1980 will be in the game as a free agent. Rather than leaving them as free agents, I assign them to appropriate teams.

I don't quite remember but in a 1951 start that gave me 50ish extra players. An average of an extra 3 players per team made it very playable.

David Watts · 03-14-2021, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad K

If you turn off historical minors you might have a shortage of replacement players for the first year or two.

Lets say you have a historical start in 1980 and elect not to import complete history. What you will get is players who played MLB in 1980. If during the season the real life team had a SS injured for a couple weeks and called up a AAA SS to cover the injury time, you'll get both the SS who was injured and his temporary replacement from AAA. Both were MLB players in 1980. However if the real life team didn't have any SS injuries and didn't call up a AAA shortstop, you won't have that AAA/MLB SS to call up if you have a SS injury.

There are several partial solutions. You could play with injuries set to OFF for a couple of years. You could let the game run a couple of years on its own and let AI deal with the headaches, then take over a team.

What I've done on my current game is import entire history and then delete all player records before starting. This has the advantages of don't import complete history but provides more players. Since full history was imported a player who played MLB before and after 1980 but not during 1980 will be in the game as a free agent. Rather than leaving them as free agents, I assign them to appropriate teams.

I don't quite remember but in a 1951 start that gave me 50ish extra players. An average of an extra 3 players per team made it very playable.

What do you mean by delete all player records?

Brad K · 03-14-2021, 11:40 PM

The button is on the league functions page and is "erase all career stats for all players". Using the 1980 start date in my example, if this is done when first setting up the game, it will get rid of historical stats of the players (prior to 1980) and the only stats they will have will be those produced by the game 1980 and up.

03-08-2021, 11:47 PM	#1
1991Twins Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 489	Historical Draft Rookies Too Good Is it normal in historical leagues for players to be drafted in the winter draft and then have ratings good enough to play? I seem to have guys who jump straight to the majors that did not in real life. If it is a settings issue, what settings would best be suggested to avoid this? I’ve tried 1/3/5 year recalc.

03-10-2021, 05:37 PM	#5
HumanRainDelay Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 88	Interesting topic 1991Twins, and I hope you get your answer. In my historical sim, I drafted Pete Incaviglia, but am making him go through the minors. His ratings would have made him ok to make the jump as he did in real life. I'll have to see if I am making the right decision or not. It was interesting to note that the MLB rule about not trading drafted players until 1 year later was implemented because of Incaviglia. He was drafted by the Expos but refused to play in the minors resulting in him being traded to Texas. __________________ line space *My continued attempts at sports reporting for the Reading Railbirds:* https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=324197

03-13-2021, 09:52 PM	#18
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	If you turn off historical minors you might have a shortage of replacement players for the first year or two. Lets say you have a historical start in 1980 and elect not to import complete history. What you will get is players who played MLB in 1980. If during the season the real life team had a SS injured for a couple weeks and called up a AAA SS to cover the injury time, you'll get both the SS who was injured and his temporary replacement from AAA. Both were MLB players in 1980. However if the real life team didn't have any SS injuries and didn't call up a AAA shortstop, you won't have that AAA/MLB SS to call up if you have a SS injury. There are several partial solutions. You could play with injuries set to OFF for a couple of years. You could let the game run a couple of years on its own and let AI deal with the headaches, then take over a team. What I've done on my current game is import entire history and then delete all player records before starting. This has the advantages of don't import complete history but provides more players. Since full history was imported a player who played MLB before and after 1980 but not during 1980 will be in the game as a free agent. Rather than leaving them as free agents, I assign them to appropriate teams. I don't quite remember but in a 1951 start that gave me 50ish extra players. An average of an extra 3 players per team made it very playable. Last edited by Brad K; 03-13-2021 at 11:20 PM.

03-09-2021, 03:50 PM	#2
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	Some of them. Remember the players in this draft played their first MLB season following the draft. You're not drafting High School kids who are several years away. You say " I seem to have guys who jump straight to the majors that did not in real life". They did. The players in the draft DID play the following year in MLB. If a player did very poorly on a low number of ABs or IPs, he may be rated better than that performance, which isn't reliable due to low sample size. He also may be rated better than that in his first year if his second year had a lot of ABs and he was very good (assuming you're using more than current year as basis).

03-11-2021, 12:35 AM	#6
1991Twins Major Leagues Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 489	HumanRainDelay, appreciate you chiming in with your experiences. I'm hoping one of the historical gurus can maybe give me some wisdom and advice. By far historical is my favorite way to play. I also know that many vets on the boards know way more than I do about its workings, so I am excited to hopefully learn more. I do remember that Incaviglia was the guy who set the tone for this. I'm interested to see how he plays out in your league, keep me updated. Sidenote: The Mickey Hatcher glove is one of my favorite baseball cards. The fact that he kept the glove after the photo shoot and would randomly break it out makes it even better!!!

03-11-2021, 12:05 PM	#8
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	Same here. I've never done historical minors. Never even thought about it. I generally don't bring up players if their first year was limited ML time, But that's mostly because they aren't good enough to push a regular out of a job and they can't play enough positions well to be a good bench player. I'd rather have a 1.5 or 2.0 star veteran who can play 3 positions than a 2.0 or 2.5 rookies who can play 1 position. As a side note, I recommend using historical rookies not a draft. In a draft a human can cherry pick players likely to be good just on name recognition. There's still an advantage on historical rookies because you can know who not to trade but the advantage is less. AI needs some help. I remain surprised the game doesn't have a help AI setting with various amounts of help.

03-11-2021, 05:57 PM	#12
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	Something else. Use the development engine without recalc and those guys crash immediately.

03-12-2021, 03:17 AM	#14
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	When I played development only (on a prior version of the game) the late bloomers never bloomed.

03-13-2021, 05:47 PM	#16
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	I appreciate the info on historical minors. It has helped decrease my never very large interest in using it!!!

03-14-2021, 11:40 PM	#20
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,059 Infractions: 0/3 (3)	The button is on the league functions page and is "erase all career stats for all players". Using the 1980 start date in my example, if this is done when first setting up the game, it will get rid of historical stats of the players (prior to 1980) and the only stats they will have will be those produced by the game 1980 and up.