Informal HOF poll

[Arbiter]

I've now reached the point in my fictional league where players potentially worthy of enshrinement in the Hall of Fame have started retiring. (Note: I've set all the "automatic" induction criteria really high; I prefer to use the Hall of Fame Monitor plus subjective criteria and do it manually.)

Here are two guys who retired with sort of borderline credentials; I thought I'd get some opinions before making my decisions.

Let's start with the stronger case: Dick Koerner, centerfielder. He turned 33 on July 4 of the league's first season, 1901. Here's his career:

[code]
YEAR AVG HR RBI G AB H 2B 3B R SB CS BB K OBP SLG TEAMS
1901 .282 39 107 145 524 148 19 1 97 19 10 70 80 .367 .546 BUF
1902 .288 34 111 140 514 148 25 3 101 14 8 66 73 .369 .547 BUF
1903 .310 60 156 150 609 189 21 3 123 14 8 65 87 .377 .650 BUF
1904 .274 45 108 153 598 164 20 7 122 20 9 55 93 .335 .557 BUF
1905 .336 57 150 144 568 191 27 7 128 20 3 57 87 .397 .710 MAR
1906 .326 29 98 129 506 165 24 3 96 8 7 47 96 .383 .557 MAR
1907 .321 46 125 148 561 180 13 0 102 1 0 38 129 .372 .590 MAR

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I don't have the 1908 export handy, but I'll mention he started off as the starting center fielder, hit about .200 with 11 homers, then got injured in May. A hot young rookie replaced him, and when he came off the DL he was relegated to pinch-hitting duty for the rest of the year.

Career highlights include two Batter of the Year awards, a 23-game hitting streak, one cycle, and a 10-RBI game in 1906. His team won the pennant in 1905, 1906, and 1907 (and 1908, though that doesn't really count -- and, besides, they've won it every year except 1902, though that's a topic for a different post...), and the 1905 team posted easily the best W-L in league history (107-47).
His 60 HRs set the league mark by 14 at the time, and his 57 is still easily the second-best in history.

An interesting subplot in his career is that as a free agent before 1905, he got no offers, since there were two other hot young outfielders on the market, and his talent ratings had started to slide. Marietta picked him up as a free agent after the first week's play, moving their CF to RF to accommodate him, and the rest is, as they say, history. (They also picked up *two* front-line starters that year, leading to that ungodly record.)

When I started the league, the guy was merely a very good hitter; I'd've ranked him maybe 8th in the league. I never expected the kind of breakout season he put up in 1903.

His HOF Monitor score works out to around 115ish, which makes him a borderline HOFer in what amounts to half a career. He seems a no-brainer yes to me.


Now, for a tougher call: Todd Middlebrook, left-handed starting pitcher. Todd turned 33 just before Opening Day of 1901, and he was far and away the class of the league's starters. Here's his career:

[code]
YEAR ERA W L S G CG SHO IP ER BB K TEAMS
1901 3.11 16 7 0 33 8 1 246.1 85 47 173 IND
1902 2.53 10 11 0 35 11 1 263.0 74 38 168 IND
1903 2.72 25 6 0 39 15 6 304.0 92 51 181 IND
1904 3.44 19 11 0 39 8 2 293.0 112 54 185 IND
1905 3.90 10 6 0 22 3 0 140.2 61 34 90 IND
1906 27.00 0 1 0 2 0 0 3.1 10 2 2 IND

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When the end came, it came fast, obviously; his next to last start was particularly painful to watch. His HOF monitor score works out in the 40s. He pitched on essentially .500 teams his whole career, so his career record of 80-42 is impressive, especially given the horrible luck he had in that regard in 1902. But, on the other hand, he disappointed a bit; in a few test sims I ran prior to going "for real", he won three or four Pitcher of the Year awards, instead of the single one in 1903.

There's sort of an implied "prehistory" to my league, in which players come in in 1901 having some reputation from prior play (sort of how, say, the members of the 1869 Red Stockings would have had a rep when the NA was formed), and I do imagine Middlebrook as having been a well-known pitcher prior to the league's beginning. But is it enough to push him over the top?

[JimServo]

Koerner yes, Middlebrook No

[majormet]

I agree with JimServo.

[Ankit]

I agree with Jim as well.

[Delgadodawg]

I agree with Jim as well

[DennisS]

No for both.

The hitter only had about 1200 hits...and not much above .300 lifetime.

Give your league 5 more years, and re-visit.

I think you will find a great many players more deserving, and with better numbers who would not be in the HOF even then.

[Arbiter]

Thanks for the comments. I hate to admit I have to agree with the judgment on Middlebrook, and can't let myself get caught up in sentimentality.

I'm surprised the vote on Koerner wasn't unanimous though; hitting 60 and 57 HR in an era based on mid-'70s league totals isn't anything to sneeze at, and even given that he never had any shot at any career milestones, he *still* rates on the high end of the "grey" region of the HOF monitor. I think a good comparable for him in the "real" HOF is George Wright, whose best years were already behind him by the time the NA was organized; except Wright truly was average in the organized leagues, whereas Koerner was truly the best hitter for a period of about 4 seasons.
Of course, opinions differ.

[Jon Finnecy]

Since you are just starting off the league, you don't have any "historical" data to go by. I'd sim off about 30 years, then go back and start looking at what guys can and did accomplish so you have some "background noise" to compare other guys to. By then, you'll know just how hard it is to his 60 home runs. Sure, it was hard in the real world (until 5 years ago), but maybe it's not that hard in your "simmed" world.

[Ken Bujold]

i agree with Jon finnecy...historical or a long sim period before selecting to the hall is a must. I sim historical only, beginning always in 1903 and running through to the end of 2020 to give current players a full career. After setting admittance levels high to exclude all players i do a manuel admission, but never begin hall of fame selections before 1925. This gives u a chance to get a 1/4 century or more if you've included their prior to 03 stats in career totals for a better perspective of their career as it compares to contemporaries and players following.

Perspective if a great factor in HOF selections. I subscribe to the Bill James theory of hall selection. By the way if you've never read his Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame (1995) i highly reccomend it. A fabulous book which provides a wonderful look into the many questions of why this guy should be in and this fellow shouldnt. For myself selection is a matter of several factors incompassing the players total carreer and impact on the game.

1. obviously there needs to be a set of bench mark figures, which varying weights for position and era played in. Is a catcher who has 1900 hits and a .280 lifetime average better or worse than a first baseman who has 2700 hits and a .300 avg? The answer is it depends. What was the benchmark for his contemporaries?

2. black ink. A good indicator of a players dominance of his particular era.
3. major awards, mvp and cy youngs
4. post season records: a player with multiple post season appearances shows not only a player fortunate enough to play on good teams but his value to those teams.
5. fielding: while the range factors for fielding are still not perfect all in all you got to factor it in. A player who consistently wins gold gloves should win out over a non winner all other things being about the same.
6. your own bias. I cant stress this one too much. When selecting to the hall remember that the process is flawed even in real life. I am sure we all have a handful of guys in cooperstown who we think shouldnt be there execpt to clean out the old timers spittoons and a comparable number of guys turning over in their graves because they never made it. When i select i think of myself as a fan who's a hof voter. It's all part of the joy of the game.

one last thing about my sims...always select players to be drafted rather than assigned to original teams. Adds to the great debates of baseball lore...how many world series do the yankees win without ruth and gehrig; what if Walter Johnson had had a team; you all get the drift i am sure

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

It's the answer they've waited three years to hear!

[HolyCow98]

Man...he was digging deep in the archives for this one...hehe

[Ken Bujold]

lol...actually i was. Was searching for a way to export hall of fame and hit upon this thread. Read it and found it interesting and thought the next time some one like me came hunting the archives they just might hit upon the same thread. Who knows, we all reach the same problems at some point in our journey.

[TheRockCT]

Must've still been running on v.4 for this one, lol.