Variation in initial ratings?

jcard · 12-06-2020, 12:24 AM

ZIPS, PECOTA, and others generate a probabilistic forecast for a player, and then use the median (50th percentile) when giving a representative stat line for the player. I know that in OOTP, the initial ratings in a given season (such as the 2020 MLB Quickstart) are always the same. Does this mean that the player always does in fact import as the "same" player, or in fact is there variation in the import and the editor is just expressing his 50th percentile (or, at least, his OOTP expected baseline) while the player can be anywhere within some range centered on that baseline. Again, I am referring to initial ratings- not the TCM that can lead to subsequent changes from the initial ratings. Thanks.

12-06-2020, 12:24 AM	#1
jcard All Star Reserve Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 610 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Variation in initial ratings? ZIPS, PECOTA, and others generate a probabilistic forecast for a player, and then use the median (50th percentile) when giving a representative stat line for the player. I know that in OOTP, the initial ratings in a given season (such as the 2020 MLB Quickstart) are always the same. Does this mean that the player always does in fact import as the "same" player, or in fact is there variation in the import and the editor is just expressing his 50th percentile (or, at least, his OOTP expected baseline) while the player can be anywhere within some range centered on that baseline. Again, I am referring to initial ratings- not the TCM that can lead to subsequent changes from the initial ratings. Thanks.