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OOTP 21 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 11-29-2020, 06:31 AM   #1
Garlon
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What about historical fielding?

The fielding imports and ratings in historical leagues have been producing impossible results with every new release of OOTP. This never gets properly corrected. If you go on Baseball Reference they have Zone Rating, which is fielding runs saved above average, for each position since 1954. I had OOTP do a 1954-2019 replay using single season import and real lineups and transactions.

Since 1954 there have been 38 instances of a SS with a Zone Rating of 21 or more, with the most being Adam Everett with 40, nd there were only 3 other instances of a player above 30 in a season. In OOTP there were 100 instances of a SS above 38 in a season. Ripken had a 75 Zone Rating in 1984 in the game.
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Old 11-29-2020, 06:38 AM   #2
Garlon
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This is the top 40 for SS career on Baseball Reference compared to in OOTP for the 1954-2019 seasons.
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Old 11-29-2020, 07:02 AM   #3
Garlon
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This is for 2B from the same game.
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Old 11-29-2020, 07:12 AM   #4
Garlon
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The results for 1901-1953 are much wore than what you get for 1954-2019 in the game. Fielding imports need to be done properly to get decent results. I have the process for doing so. Unfortunately, they keep focusing on new features instead of taking the time to finally fix one major feature that is broken with the game, fielding.
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Old 11-29-2020, 11:35 AM   #5
pstrickert
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...but, by golly, OOTP does have the Futures Game!
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Old 11-29-2020, 11:59 AM   #6
Garlon
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There are only a few issues remaining with historicals that could be modeled better.

1. Defensive ratings for catchers, infielders, and outfielders. The import process is flawed and generates poor results. There is enough statistical data to make this much better. There are even two ways to generate the ratings, either would be a significant improvement to the current ratings.

2. Pitcher Hold Runner rating. There is actual data that could be used for this since about 1925. For seasons before this a team value could be used since we have SB attempts against each team. The pitcher hold runner rating needs to have a greater affect on stolen base attempts. Currently the game uses catcher arm to affect attempts and the arm rating fails to properly model caught stealing percentage for catchers because they have one rating trying to do two jobs. Making catcher rating equivalent to caught stealing percentage and having the hold runner rating for pitcher influence the stolen base attempt rate could correct this issue.

3. Ballpark Factors. I created L/R discrete factors for BA/2B/3B/HR for every stadium since about 1905. The game does not currently even support 2B and 3B factors for L/R, only an overall factor. The factors can also be used for better player imports and I made those import formulas too, but I doubt they will make it into the game.

4. The Silvam historical ballparks should be included with the game even if the historical advertisements in those models need to be adjusted.
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:06 PM   #7
joefromchicago
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I assume that the fielding ratings work in combination with the pitcher and hitter ratings in some mysterious way. If fielding is way better than it should be, then we should expect that runs scored and batting averages would be way down. Was that your experience with your replay?
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:07 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pstrickert View Post
...but, by golly, OOTP does have the Futures Game!
Baby steps. Baby steps
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:34 PM   #9
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The League Totals Modifiers control the overall league output for everything. The problem is the distribution. So when some teams have incredible defensive players who are performing way above what is possible, what happens is that those singles they are taking away are getting distributed somewhere else in the league. This means some teams have players performing much worse. For example, in the Deadball era that there is a SS making half as many errors as they should be based on their fielding percentage, then those errors are going to some other SS because the league SS fielding percentage is controlled by the modifiers. Those errors go somewhere. The problem is more than errors though, it is defensive efficiency too. For example, an average SS is going to make 500 assists in a season assuming an average number of opportunities, if he has a defensive efficiency of 1.10 then he will make 550 assists, an additional 50 plays. That is an extreme amount of extra plays to make above average, yet it happens regularly in the game. If there is then a SS in that same league who has a defensive efficiency of 0.95, they will make 475 assists, or about 25 fewer plays than average. The difference between these two SS is then 75 plays made, or about 1 play every other game. That is simply not how baseball works at the major league level and yet we get these types of results in historical games because of the huge differences the game uses for fielding ratings.

Adam Everett had that one great season, which was probably on the order of 53 plays above average. The league average SS that season fielded .972. Everett had 688 total chances, so the league average SS would have made 20 errors, but Everett only made 7. So he is up 13 plays right there just from error prevention. So there is probably another 40 plays he made above average that season. He had 479 assists. If we are right that he made 40 more plays than the average SS after accounting for the errors, then the average SS would have only made 439 of those assists. 479/439 = 1.09

Everett probably had a defensive efficiency of 1.09 that season. This is a remarkable fielding performance. This means that for every 11 plays the average SS made that season, he was able to make 12 plays. Now that is arguably the best anyone has done since 1954. Go to any of your saved OOTP games and you will see that every season you will have a SS above 1.09. There is someone every season who is performing better than anyone ever has at the position.

To give you an idea of how this affects the game, consider these two SS you could have on your team,

Player A is an average hitter in every regard and hits 5 HR and has a Zone Rating of 40 (which you can see happens nearly every season).

Player B is an average defender but has 30 HR for the season.

In this example, player A is probably still more valuable than player B. This kind of thing does not happen in major league baseball. There is no way you pass up Player B because there should be no way that anyone should be able to make up the value of 25 more HRs with their defense. This would have to be an extremely rare instance, not something that occurs every season.

Last edited by Garlon; 11-29-2020 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 11-29-2020, 02:43 PM   #10
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There sure were a lot of good 2B drafted by the Pirates.
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Old 11-29-2020, 03:40 PM   #11
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Stupid question time. Is this only an issue when playing historical? If so, why?
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Old 11-30-2020, 06:19 AM   #12
Garlon
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Players are given ratings that make them too strong compared to the other players at positions. Basically too much of the sale is being used. For example, the average SS should be given a Range of 160 for any given season. The minimum range for any SS should be 120 and the maximum 200. Most of the SS should be between 135 and 185. This is basically how it needs to be done. Essentially every 5 points of range and arm will convert to 1% more plays made when done this way. I can tell you that below 118 for range and arm are completely unusable for SS in the game as I tested this when creating the Baseball Greats mod for the game.
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Old 11-30-2020, 09:34 AM   #13
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Thanks for posting these observations. Is there is fix for this? If one were inclined to edit the ratings, are we talking about tweaking just a few players every season, or wholesale changes to most everyone?
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Old 11-30-2020, 09:52 AM   #14
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This is something that needs to be changed with how the game is assigning ratings. You can try using base fielding on 3 years instead of 1 year and that will help, but you will still get impossible results.
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Old 12-01-2020, 09:53 AM   #15
Garlon
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These are results from 1901-1953 for SS, giving us an additional 100 players who had more than 40 runs saved in a season, so about twice per season this happens in the game.
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Old 12-01-2020, 10:05 AM   #16
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From 1954-2019 on baseball reference there are 4 instances of a 2b saving more than 23 runs in a season. This occurs on average twice per season inn the game. These are the results for 2b from 1901-1953 in the game.
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Old 12-02-2020, 07:28 AM   #17
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Is this an issue with other positions as well, or is it only a 2B and SS issue?
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Old 12-02-2020, 01:14 PM   #18
Garlon
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There are problems at every position. I was able to determine the usable parts of the rating scale for each position. There is basically a floor and a ceiling that need to be used as I mentioned with regard to ss in an earlier post. Another issue is that the game currently imports some SS with such an extremely high range rating that if they end up playing 2b they become impossibly good defenders. That is not what is happening in the above examples though as I was using real lineups and transactions.
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Old 12-02-2020, 02:32 PM   #19
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Mike, I know you've been sounding the alarm for at least a couple of years. Any reason to think Markus will do anything this time around?
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Old 12-02-2020, 04:02 PM   #20
Garlon
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I really do not know if they will address this issue. If nobody complains about it then they will not bother. These defensive results really can change everything. Take the Ripken example above with him saving 75 runs in the 1984 season, that is equivalent to 50 homeruns over a season. That is going to affect who wins the division.

The problem is that they really do not know how to translate the fielding stats to ratings. In order to look at fielding stats properly you need to adjust for things like team defensive efficiency, team strikeout rate, and groundball rate in order to really compare player defensive stats against the league average rate for their position. Once you factor all of those then you can get a value for the player defensive efficiency. So if a SS is a 1.05, then he made 5% more plays than average given those opportunities, and since a SS makes about 500 plays per season, that is about 25 plays. Now you need to determine what Arm and Range values will be the baseline for a 1.00, then determine what will generate a 1.05. For example, I suggest that 159 be the average range and arm for a SS, and I think about 5 points of each will increase their plays made by 1%. So if we want a 1.05 player then their range and arm need to be 184. If it turned out that this was still producing results that are too strong then we can lower the multiplier until the results seem better.

Another way to do this is to use zone rating data that is available from baseball reference or fangraphs. We can turn the zone rating into plays made above or below average and do the same thing.
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