Bullpen rebuild

Andrej72 · 11-22-2020, 05:21 AM

Hi again!

I am playing now as the Oakland Athletics. At the season start I made some trades. It looked difficult to sign an extension with Semien, plus I wanted to rebuild the team with younger players, and above all needed some room in the budget. I sent Semien (SS), Canha (LF) and Laureano (RF) to St. Louis, and in exchange I got O'Neill (LF), DeJong (SS) and Bader (CF). I also traded Piscotty (RF) with San Diego for Garcia (2B). In early and mid April two starting pitchers had to be put on IL, Mike Fiers (12 months) and Chris Bassit (6 months). To resolve the situation, at least partially, I acquired Mike Montgomery (and a minor league SP) from KC for two minor league players. Payroll did not change, since KC retained 100% of his salary. However that trade turned out quite horribly, Montgomery played so horribly that he was sent back to the bullpen after 3 starts. Also we were not able to find our game and by the end of May we had an abysmal 25-36 .409 record. Around this time, to change our fortune, I hired a new assistant GM, a new bench, a new hitting, and a new pitching coach. And in fact it looks that we found our game and we finished June with astonishing 18-7 record, including a 13 game winning streak. So, at the beginning of July we are at .516 (47-44) which is a huge improvement.

Our starting rotation (Luzardo, Montas, Manea, Puk, Jeffries) looks rock solid with 3.81 ERA which is 3rd in AL. On the contrary our bullpen is just simply horrendous, 5.74 ERA and 14th in AL. At least Diekman (4.72 ERA + 0.6 WAR) and McFarland (3.58 ERA + 0.3 WAR) are doing decently, but I have a buch of veteran players with abysmal stats, most of them with a huge wage bill.

Mike Montgomery (31 yo) - 7.94 ERA & -1.1 WAR (at least KC pays the wage bill)
Yusmerio Petit (35 yo) - 5.6 ERA & 0.4 WAR; wage: $5.5M
Brian Schlitter (34 yo) - 6.09 ERA & -0.1 WAR; wage: league minimum
Joakim Soria (36 yo) - 6.81 ERA & -0.3 WAR; wage $8.5M
Lou Trivino (28 yo) - 5.14 ERA & -0.4 WAR; wage: league minimum

It is clear that I have to rebuild the bullpen to be successful. I might keep McFarland, but all the others with expiring cotracts (Montgomery, Petit, Schlitter, Soria) will leave.

So, my question is, can you suggest some nice young RP? Also what attributes should I check to get a successful reliever?

Finally there is also my closer Liam Hendricks. He is 31 years old, and earning $5.3, and he wants a 3-year contract with a $10.5M / year salary. That is a huge amount of money, but I am not sure if I can get a better, or cheaper closer. He posted the following stats.

32 games
IP30.2
2.93 ERA
21 SV
1.47 WHIP
1.2 HR/9
5.6 BB/9
10.9 K/9
.293 BABIP
160 ERA+
0.2 WAR

Probably it make sense to agree with him, right?

Michael T · 11-22-2020, 10:30 AM

Because he wants $10.5M doesn't mean he won't take less as long as it is a healthy increase over what he now gets. Have you tried offering him something in the $7-$8.5M range?

CBeisbol · 11-22-2020, 11:52 AM

Number one rules of building a pitching staff, especially the bullpen - don't look at ERA

Look at FIP and FIP-

ERA has very little usefulness with relievers. The samples are too small

With FIP make sure you understand how homeruns impact it and understand those come in small samples too

Andrej72 · 11-22-2020, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Number one rules of building a pitching staff, especially the bullpen - don't look at ERA

Look at FIP and FIP-

ERA has very little usefulness with relievers. The samples are too small

With FIP make sure you understand how homeruns impact it and understand those come in small samples too

Thanks for the advice for all of you. I signed an extension with Hendricks for $25.5M for 3 years.

I also acquired Brandon Brennan, Matt Strahm and Alex Vesia for the bullpen. We are also improving slowly on that area, bullpen ERA dropped from 5.74 to 4.97 already, and we are ranked 12th instead of 14th.

Our offense is doing pretty nicely. Starting lineup below.

C: Sean Murphy .224 / .309 / .401 WAR 2.0
1B: Matt Olson .271 / .377 / .430 WAR 2.3
2B: Greg Garcia .297 / .371 / .418 WAR 2.6
3B: Matt Chapman .211 / .304 / .391 WAR 3.0 - 21 HR
SS: Paul De Jong .247 / .313 / .382 WAR 1.4
RF: Yasiel Puig .276 / .354 / 4.38 WAR 1.6
CF: Harrison Bader .278 / .353 / .492 - WAR 5.7 - 22 HR
LF: Randy Arrozarena .269 / .343 / .418 WAR 1.2
DH: Khris Davis .265 / .312 / .542 WAR 1.8 - 29 HR

Bench:

C: Austin Allen .268 / .330 / .464 WAR 0.5
1B: Travis Shaw .203 / .297 / .457 WAR 1.2
LF: Tyler O'Neill .207 / .262 / .404 WAR -0.1
RF: Tony Kemp .281 / .331 / .393 WAR 0.7

We are now (30th August) at .548 (74-61) 2 GB the wilde card spot. One month before regular season ending we already had ~170k more attendance than the previous year.

Michael T · 11-23-2020, 10:11 AM

What is FIP and where do you find it?

CBeisbol · 11-23-2020, 11:37 AM

FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching

It, as the name suggests, attempts to strip away the effect of defense and focus on what the pitcher did, not their teammates

https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/fip/

If you go to a player's pitching stats and select Expanded Stats 2, maybe, it's there

You can also select it from the Customized views of different screens

As you can see here
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...0&postcount=19

Michael T · 11-24-2020, 09:55 AM

And I'm guessing the lower the number the better?

11-22-2020, 05:21 AM	#1
Andrej72 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: Tököl, Hungary Posts: 193	Bullpen rebuild Hi again! I am playing now as the Oakland Athletics. At the season start I made some trades. It looked difficult to sign an extension with Semien, plus I wanted to rebuild the team with younger players, and above all needed some room in the budget. I sent Semien (SS), Canha (LF) and Laureano (RF) to St. Louis, and in exchange I got O'Neill (LF), DeJong (SS) and Bader (CF). I also traded Piscotty (RF) with San Diego for Garcia (2B). In early and mid April two starting pitchers had to be put on IL, Mike Fiers (12 months) and Chris Bassit (6 months). To resolve the situation, at least partially, I acquired Mike Montgomery (and a minor league SP) from KC for two minor league players. Payroll did not change, since KC retained 100% of his salary. However that trade turned out quite horribly, Montgomery played so horribly that he was sent back to the bullpen after 3 starts. Also we were not able to find our game and by the end of May we had an abysmal 25-36 .409 record. Around this time, to change our fortune, I hired a new assistant GM, a new bench, a new hitting, and a new pitching coach. And in fact it looks that we found our game and we finished June with astonishing 18-7 record, including a 13 game winning streak. So, at the beginning of July we are at .516 (47-44) which is a huge improvement. Our starting rotation (Luzardo, Montas, Manea, Puk, Jeffries) looks rock solid with 3.81 ERA which is 3rd in AL. On the contrary our bullpen is just simply horrendous, 5.74 ERA and 14th in AL. At least Diekman (4.72 ERA + 0.6 WAR) and McFarland (3.58 ERA + 0.3 WAR) are doing decently, but I have a buch of veteran players with abysmal stats, most of them with a huge wage bill. Mike Montgomery (31 yo) - 7.94 ERA & -1.1 WAR (at least KC pays the wage bill) Yusmerio Petit (35 yo) - 5.6 ERA & 0.4 WAR; wage: $5.5M Brian Schlitter (34 yo) - 6.09 ERA & -0.1 WAR; wage: league minimum Joakim Soria (36 yo) - 6.81 ERA & -0.3 WAR; wage $8.5M Lou Trivino (28 yo) - 5.14 ERA & -0.4 WAR; wage: league minimum It is clear that I have to rebuild the bullpen to be successful. I might keep McFarland, but all the others with expiring cotracts (Montgomery, Petit, Schlitter, Soria) will leave. So, my question is, can you suggest some nice young RP? Also what attributes should I check to get a successful reliever? Finally there is also my closer Liam Hendricks. He is 31 years old, and earning $5.3, and he wants a 3-year contract with a $10.5M / year salary. That is a huge amount of money, but I am not sure if I can get a better, or cheaper closer. He posted the following stats. 32 games IP30.2 2.93 ERA 21 SV 1.47 WHIP 1.2 HR/9 5.6 BB/9 10.9 K/9 .293 BABIP 160 ERA+ 0.2 WAR Probably it make sense to agree with him, right? Last edited by Andrej72; 11-22-2020 at 06:27 AM.

11-22-2020, 10:30 AM	#2
Michael T Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 137	Because he wants $10.5M doesn't mean he won't take less as long as it is a healthy increase over what he now gets. Have you tried offering him something in the $7-$8.5M range? __________________ Sent from my pocket calculator using two tin cans and a string

11-23-2020, 10:11 AM	#5
Michael T Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 137	What is FIP and where do you find it? __________________ Sent from my pocket calculator using two tin cans and a string

11-23-2020, 11:37 AM	#6
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching It, as the name suggests, attempts to strip away the effect of defense and focus on what the pitcher did, not their teammates https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/fip/ If you go to a player's pitching stats and select Expanded Stats 2, maybe, it's there You can also select it from the Customized views of different screens As you can see here https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...0&postcount=19 Last edited by CBeisbol; 11-23-2020 at 11:39 AM.

11-24-2020, 09:55 AM	#7
Michael T Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 137	And I'm guessing the lower the number the better? __________________ Sent from my pocket calculator using two tin cans and a string

11-22-2020, 11:52 AM	#3
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	Number one rules of building a pitching staff, especially the bullpen - don't look at ERA Look at FIP and FIP- ERA has very little usefulness with relievers. The samples are too small With FIP make sure you understand how homeruns impact it and understand those come in small samples too