An initial look at today's Live updates - your thoughts?

[DotDash]

Hi all,

The bi-weekly updates to Live cards seem to have gone through, and I am curious to know how these are being perceived by other players. Any (big) surprises that stand out, any updates you had hoped for but didn't materialize?
I had a look at the Diamond and Gold cards that I had been tracking (and buying where possible) and wanted to share my views on some updates that stood out to me - and would like to hear yours!

Realmuto - still no Perfect rating despite continued great production for a catcher, plus a defensive rating frozen at 103. Outperforming ZiPS OPS by about .100.
Rendon - bounced back to 97 after two weeks of stellar production.
Bieber - finally rewarded for his excellence so far this year, with a 97 rating.
Harper - expected him to be rated a bit higher than 95 after two weeks of excellence since the last update (1.150 OPS in last 15 games.)
Giolito - about where I expected at 95, after one bad and one excellent start since 8/10.
Tatis Jr. - a headscratcher to me at 93. His performance has dropped slightly since 8/10 when he was rewarded with +6 points while OPS-ing 1.227. He now sits at 1.073, which is still stellar, and I expected his ongoing production over a larger sample size to be rewarded with perhaps another point or two, not a decrease by four.
Hader - frozen at 93 despite still having an ERA of 0 and a miniscule WHIP of 0.55.
(Nick) Anderson - joins Hader at 93 with very similar production.
Hendriks - also makes the deserved jump to the 90's (92.)
Darvish - stuck at 92 despite three more very good starts since the last ratings change. Expected a bump of a point or two.
Greinke - now rated at 91, seems fine to me.
(Gleyber) Torres - just barely back in Diamond (90) after his eight point decrease last time around. He raised his batting average from .157 on 8/9 to .231 now, but this (and his other stats) is still so far below his ZiPS projection that I'm surprised by the correction back to Diamond.
(Taylor) Rogers - managed to make it to Diamond despite some very shaky outings since the last update. He now owns a .318 average against, up from .238 on 8/10. Not sure about this one, but I'll take it.
Buehler - started the season at 88, was bad for three starts, lost three points with the first update. Had another bad start after the update and then one good outing. Now he's rated higher (90) than he was before the season started (88.) Don't get it.
Maeda - up to 88 now. Wonder if he will keep outperforming his career stats, or if a regression is due?
(Sonny) Gray - unchanged at 86. Expected a small increase after two more nice starts, but fine.
Fried - not a big fan of the one point decrease. 3rd lowest ERA of qulified starters, low WHIP, zero HR given up, .188 avg against. Guess the model doesn't like the fact that he only went 5 IP during his latest outing?

*Rant zone starts here*

Trevor Bauer - had one start since the last update. Which was a (7-inning due to double-header) CGSO. Lost a point from 85 to 84. This is wrong and bad and I don't like it.
Lance Lynn - also had a (9-inning!) complete game since the last update (1 earned run allowed.) And a 7-inning outing where he surrendered just two runs on solo HRs. Lost two points despite owning a 1.37 ERA for the season and being rated mid-gold to begin with. Compare this to Buehler's update (and the season he's had so far) and you'll probably see my issue with this.

Looking further down the rankings, I can see more than a couple of updates which don't seem right to me already (.405-hitting Blackmon all the way back to silver, Winker, Yastrzemski, Verdugo not making it to gold, Framber Valdez losing four points after two wins with one earned run each, 1.000+ OPS Ian Happ stuck at 72, etc.)

But that's (more than) enough from me - what stuck out to you?

[Lukas Berger]

Just to be upfront about it, it we've noticed that there appear to be some issues with players who didn't play during this cycle due to injury still having their ratings change, which shouldn't be happening.

So this is something we are going to have to debug before the next updates. But unfortunately, now that the ratings are live it's not something we can retroactively change for this update.

[Lukas Berger]

As far as the OP, just to clarify things a bit, I'll just point out some of what you're referencing, is not taken into account by the ratings at all.

For Lynn, for example, the pertinent factor is the 2 HR's allowed in that start, not that they are solo HR's. The algorithm doesn't care if they're solo HR's or Grand Slams.

Average against, ERA etc are also things that are totally irrelevant, and not taken into account by the algorithm. For pitchers, pretty much all that matters are K's, BB's and HR's allowed, factored against IP.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Just to be upfront about it, it we've noticed that there appear to be some issues with players who didn't play during this cycle due to injury still having their ratings change, which shouldn't be happening.

So this is something we are going to have to debug before the next updates. But unfortunately, now that the ratings are live it's not something we can retroactively change for this update.

JOSE ABREU ---This is the funniest one
Leads AL in HR's RBI, BLAH BLAH...HIT 7-9 HR Last week (6 this weekend for christ sake) and he's rated a 75. The dislike for White Sox is striking.... ELOY? Tim Anderson....Dylan Cease? Too to name them all.Matt Foster hasn't even given up a run yet a whip of around 0.50 ERA 0.00 It's like randomly thrown numbers up against a wall...

[Kris Jardine]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

JOSE ABREU ---This is the funniest one
Leads AL in HR's RBI, BLAH BLAH...HIT 7-9 HR Last week (6 this weekend for christ sake) and he's rated a 75. The dislike for White Sox is striking.... ELOY? Tim Anderson....Dylan Cease? Too to name them all.Matt Foster hasn't even given up a run yet a whip of around 0.50 ERA 0.00 It's like randomly thrown numbers up against a wall...

Abreu - up 7 this update
Eloy - up 5 this update
Cease - up 1 this update
Anderson - up 3 this update
Foster - up 5 this update

White Sox players as a whole are up 37 total points this update, 46 total points for the season.

[JKap]

For a game that markets itself as a comprehensive simulation of baseball, using only walks, Ks and HR allowed for pitcher rating changes is extremely simplistic in its approach.

[bailey]

Originally Posted by JKap

For a game that markets itself as a comprehensive simulation of baseball, using only walks, Ks and HR allowed for pitcher rating changes is extremely simplistic in its approach.

Actually, it's the very latest in baseball thinking which views ERA and pitcher wins as antiquated.

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by JKap

For a game that markets itself as a comprehensive simulation of baseball, using only walks, Ks and HR allowed for pitcher rating changes is extremely simplistic in its approach.

Why? There is a lot of research out there showing that these are the only inputs that matter. ERA, WHIP, etc. are the outputs after tossing in some variance/luck.

It's how the entire player rating model in every mode of ootp is built. Stuff, Movement, Control.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by JKap

For a game that markets itself as a comprehensive simulation of baseball, using only walks, Ks and HR allowed for pitcher rating changes is extremely simplistic in its approach.

Not really.

It's a DIPS based model, which is still generally accepted as the most realistic model by the majority of the baseball stats community, though of course plenty of folks have (more or less strong) disagreements with it.

Whether you fully agree with it or not, there certainly isn't terribly conclusive evidence that the majority of pitchers (with possibly a few noteworthy exceptions) can control their batted ball outcomes.

[JKap]

Originally Posted by bailey

Actually, it's the very latest in baseball thinking which views ERA and pitcher wins as antiquated.

Good point. A literal interpretation suggests that if a pitcher gives up 12 hits per inning (but none are HR) and all 3 outs are Ks, then he is on his way to a perfect card.

[Caedus]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

As far as the OP, just to clarify things a bit, I'll just point out some of what you're referencing, is not taken into account by the ratings at all.

For Lynn, for example, the pertinent factor is the 2 HR's allowed in that start, not that they are solo HR's. The algorithm doesn't care if they're solo HR's or Grand Slams.

Average against, ERA etc are also things that are totally irrelevant, and not taken into account by the algorithm. For pitchers, pretty much all that matters are K's, BB's and HR's allowed, factored against IP.

What changes the ratings primarily for position players?

I may or may not be a little salty my full-26 man roster's worth of Mike Yastrzemski's not only didn't go Gold, but dropped a point

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by JKap

Good point. A literal interpretation suggests that if a pitcher gives up 12 hits per inning (but none are HR) and all 3 outs are Ks, then he is on his way to a perfect card.

Technically this is possible, but the whole point is that in the long run your hits allowed regresses towards an expected number based on those three factors and there is research showing that is true for the vast majority of players.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Caedus

What changes the ratings primarily for position players?

I may or may not be a little salty my full-26 man roster's worth of Mike Yastrzemski's not only didn't go Gold, but dropped a point

Hitters use basically all the default batting stats you'd expect. Fielding and baserunning are not factored in though. hits, 2b, 3b, HR, BB, HBP, K's etc. all factor in against total pa's.

For a guy like Yastrzemski, the relevant factor is how he's played compared to previously.

His last 14 days, he put up a .294/.400/.627 line.

Fantastic for sure. But his total season line is .309/.429/.645

So he was actually worse in the previous 14 days than he had been in the rest of the season prior.

That can potentially be offset a bit by the fact that as time goes on, and players play more, we assign more weight to their current season ratings and less to the original projections, and allow bigger swings, but seems that wasn't enough here to keep him from getting a tiny drop based on his performance actually falling off a bit in the last 14 days, compared to previously.

[allenciox]

So the biggest headscratcher for me is Mike Soroka, who has been on IL since he last pitched on August 3 yet still went up two points (90 to 92).

Other headscratchers include:

Fernando Tatis, Jr.: hit for .357 average and .1117 OPS over the last week. Yet he fell four points. Many people, including myself, had expected him to possibly go to perfect level. For the year, he has hit at an overall ops of 1.073, which is significantly improved from his rookie season (no sophomore slump for him!) and (as fivethirtyeight.com recently noted: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-ball-harder/ ) his velocity off the bat has significantly improved from his rookie year. I could certainly understand his not going up 3 points, but going down 4? That confuses me.


Marcell Ozuna: hit .370 in his last seven games with an OPS of .1156. His OPS for the year is now up to .908, significantly higher than last year and his career average. But he went down a point (from 86 to 85), and is only one point higher than he started the year at.

One possible explanation for the above is that the evaluation has a week lag --- like perhaps they don't include the previous week's statistics in doing the adjustment. That would also explain that Soroka's gain was deferred from last time since his last start before the injury wasn't included until this update..

[Kramfighters]

Rich Hill’s rankings are perplexing. He boosted up 8 points. His first start (included in first update) was 5 IP, 0 ER, 0 HRA, 1 BB, 2 K, 2.94 FIP, 4.91 xFIP. His second start (second update) was 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 HRA, 3 BB, 1 K, 13.50 ERA, 10.64 FIP, 7.98 xFIP.

Thoughts that can explain the boost?

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by allenciox

So the biggest headscratcher for me is Mike Soroka, who has been on IL since he last pitched on August 3 yet still went up two points (90 to 92).
One possible explanation for the above is that the evaluation has a week lag --- like perhaps they don't include the previous week's statistics in doing the adjustment. That would also explain that Soroka's gain was deferred from last time since his last start before the injury wasn't included until this update..

Soroka seems to be a bug. I referred to that in my first post in this thread. We'll do what we can to get it straightened out for next update

As for Tatis Jr., that was discussed in another thread. He actually declined the last two weeks. As of last update, he had a 1.226 OPS. Now he has a 1.063. He 'only' put up an .898 OPS during the update period. So of course the card ratings will fall. There's no extra credit for Grand Slams

For Ozuna, I'd have to look closer but seems his last 2 weeks performance was super close to his overall season performance, so something little could easily make the difference there.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Kramfighters

Rich Hill’s rankings are perplexing. He boosted up 8 points. His first start (included in first update) was 5 IP, 0 ER, 0 HRA, 1 BB, 2 K, 2.94 FIP, 4.91 xFIP. His second start (second update) was 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 HRA, 3 BB, 1 K, 13.50 ERA, 10.64 FIP, 7.98 xFIP.

Thoughts that can explain the boost?

Hill is a weird one. We will have to check him out. A couple guys got boosts because they accidentally got changed from being listed as SP's to RP's, but it seems that's not the case for Hill.

[allenciox]

Ok, this is not about an overall rating, but where an overall rating went up 8 points but the individual ratings actually stayed about the same, or actually went down.

Ryan Borucki (44->52) is the one I am referring to. I noticed him because I use him on some of my cap teams.

his "average" ratings on the previous update (this is slightly different from listed ratings as I have applied a weighting to vL and vR that is slightly different):
OVR: 44, STU: 66.5 , MOV: 45.6, CON: 56.2

This week he is:
OVR: 52, STU: 60 , MOV: 48, CON: 55

So his stuff and con both went down (significantly in the case of STU) and his MOV went up sllightly. How can somebody go up 8 points OVR and actually decrease the regular ratings?

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by allenciox

...
So his stuff and con both went down (significantly in the case of STU) and his MOV went up sllightly. How can somebody go up 8 points OVR and actually decrease the regular ratings?

There are a handful of guys who got changed from being listed as SP's to being listed as RP's (Nate Pearson and Luis Patino are two others), due to a bug, which changes their overall ratings.

We'll fix that for next cycle as well.

[mlbrandomstats]

What's up with James Karinchak's control and movement? He's a 75 overall despite 154 stuff because his movement is a 68 and control is a 25. He's thrown 20 MLB innings, has walked just 7 guys and hasn't allowed a homer. And he allowed less than a homer per 20 innings pitched in the Minors. Don't get why the game is so low on him