Total amounts of cards that changed tiers in live update

[allenciox]

So I have gone through the spreadsheet and this is what I calculate:

Cards rising:

90s->100: 0
80s->90s: 8
70s->80s: 19
60s->70s: 51
50s->60s: 63

Cards dropping:

100->90s: 2
90s->80s: 4
80s->70s: 28
70s->60s: 55
60s->50s: 22

There were 1162 total cards, of which 161 were new. Only one card rose more than 8 points and no cards dropped more than 8 points. 30 players dropped 8 points, and 45 increased by 8 points. 368 of the players changed by 0 points (I would guess most of these are not playing, either due to not making the 30-man squad, sitting out, or injured).

Takeaways: There were more big drops and big gains than I expected. There were more cards dropping from gold to silver than cards increasing from silver to gold, but there were MANY more cards going from iron to bronze than the other direction.

[tomnov]

How did you accumulate this data so quickly?

[allenciox]

I added columns to the spreadsheet they published in the sticky at the top: newcol1=int(original rating/10), newcol2=int(new rating/10), and diff=newcol2-newcol1 (diff was either 0, 1, or -1) --- excluded players that were < 50 (so that I wouldn't count going from 50s to 40s or 40s to 50s) and then used subtotal excel function (which shows total # players non-filtered) for various filters applied to the data.

[daves]

My live Gold tournament team just hit a snag with the updates to Diamond.

[Commander H]

Player dropping from Diamond tier to Gold tier affect the actual individual ratings? For instance Kris Bryant was a 90 rating overall then dropped to 86 and put him in the gold tier. Did his individual batting ratings (contact, home run power etc) change as well?

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Commander H

Player dropping from Diamond tier to Gold tier affect the actual individual ratings? For instance Kris Bryant was a 90 rating overall then dropped to 86 and put him in the gold tier. Did his individual batting ratings (contact, home run power etc) change as well?

Yes. Defense and speed are constant, but the rest is done the other way around - ie. live stats adjust the contact/power/eye, and those change affect the new overall value. So even players who did not change overall (like Trout) might still shift a few points here or there on those ratings depending on how they actually did.

[allenciox]

So I have gone through the spreadsheet and this is what I calculate:

Cards rising:

90s->100: 0 (there has yet to be a single card going from diamond to perfect! in 2020)
80s->90s: 6
70s->80s: 21
60s->70s: 59
50s->60s: 27

Cards dropping:

100->90s: 0
90s->80s: 5
80s->70s: 13
70s->60s: 24
60s->50s: 30

There were 1221 total cards, of which 63 were new.

The largest drop was 15 points, and 14 cards dropped at least 10 points --- however, none dropped more than one "level" --- the highest previous OVR card to drop 10 or more points was 67.

The biggest gain was 10 points, which happened with three players --- including Nate Pearson who made an astonishing leap from 84 to 94. Overall, 314 players dropped and 395 players gained.

Takeaways: I was surprised to see so many big jumps and big falls.
I actually thought thinks would stabilize more in the second two weeks than in the first two weeks, but the reverse seems to have occurred.
There were a surprising number of cards that made the leap from bronze to silver, similar to the number that went from iron to bronze last time.

[Morug]

Nate Pearson 94? Someone can explain me how he gain 10?

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by Morug

Nate Pearson 94? Someone can explain me how he gain 10?

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...3&postcount=19

[Morug]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...3&postcount=19

ok thanks, thats bad I auto sell 2 of them last week

[allenciox]

So I have gone through the Sep 7 spreadsheet and this is what I calculate:

Cards rising (parentheses show the corresponding numbers for Aug 24 and Aug 10 update respectively)

90s->100: 0 ( 0, 0)
80s->90s: 5 ( 6, 8)
70s->80s: 11 (21,19)
60s->70s: 22 (59,51)
50s->60s: 27 (27,63)
Total: 65 (113,141)

Cards dropping:

100->90s: 0 ( 0, 2)
90s->80s: 3 ( 5, 4)
80s->70s: 14 (13,28)
70s->60s: 37 (24,55)
60s->50s: 17 (30,22)
Total: 71 (72,111)

There were 1282 total cards, of which 61 were new.

The largest drop was 14 points, and 7 cards dropped at least 10 points. One of these was Nate Pearson, who had gone from 84 to 94 last update due to developer-acknowledged bug. As they promised, it was corrected this update.
The biggest gain was 16 points (Taylor Widener went from 41 to 57), which was the largest gain (or loss) in any update so far. Even though a number of players have moved than ten points in an updats, none have changed more than one tier at a time.

Several players have changed two tiers across all updates this season:
Up two tiers:
Freddy Peralta(62->80)
Yency Almonte(69->84)
James Kannchak(65->80)
Jalen Beeks(59->71)

Down two tiers:
Joe Jimenez(81->69)
Matt Barnes(80->69)

Takeaways:
Many fewer cards went up tiers this time compared to the previous two times (nearly half as many as the average). For the first time, more cards dropped tiers than rose tiers.
Developers appear reluctant to move cards TO perfect level (none at all) or down FROM perfect level (only two so far this season). This is despite some perfect cards having bad seasons: e.g. Yelich(wOBA=.339, WAR=0.4), Bellinger(wOBA=.311, WAR=0.5) and players like Fernando Tatis, Jr (OVR=94) having truly spectacular seasons (wOBA=.438, WAR=3.0).

[Splitter24]

Thanks for the research. This tells me what I had suspected when I was redoing my Iron tourney teams this morning. The quality of the live Iron players is falling as many more Iron guys are improving to Bronze than Bronze players falling to Iron. Also, that the quality of the new Iron cards aren't good enough to overcome the difference. I added a historic Iron starting pitcher to the tourney roster who was probably my 9th or 10th best at that position. Yes, everybody who plays that particular type of tourney is in the same boat. It's just odd, though.

[Redleg39]

Farewell, Dustin May. I knew you weren't gonna be able to Bronze with me too much longer. Spread your wings and fly...

[tbonetim]

I'm at least glad I held onto nearly every Live card I had collected over months and months of standard pack openings before baseball season began. You don't always realize how much even 25 points a card adds up to until you have sometimes over 30 Iron card repeats of one player that jump into the Bronze category. Not something that would be likely to happen during a normal year that I hope we have in 2021 since you wouldn't have that amount of time to collect that many Iron cards of the same player if they get improved to a Bronze. Now if only Skye Bolt could have played this year and gotten into the 60's.

[webdox]

Thanks for all the hard work.

First LIVE release netted me close to 200K in profits on cards that had jumped, 2 weeks ago it was around 140K.

This week..... We'll see. Selling them all off right now.

I am torn, I have over 35 Almonte's and think he might very well crack 90 before the end of the season. Sell for 35K or wait and hope for the cool 140K payday...

Think I'll sell half and sit on half...

[tbonetim]

Originally Posted by webdox

Thanks for all the hard work.

First LIVE release netted me close to 200K in profits on cards that had jumped, 2 weeks ago it was around 140K.

This week..... We'll see. Selling them all off right now.

I am torn, I have over 35 Almonte's and think he might very well crack 90 before the end of the season. Sell for 35K or wait and hope for the cool 140K payday...

Think I'll sell half and sit on half...

I only sell my fringe players in the last weekend prior to the Live updates who obviously will get reduced in value from either Diamond, Gold, Silver or Bronze. We only have at most 2 live card updates left on Monday September 21st and I'm guessing they will have a final update one week later on the 28th because the regular MLB season comes to a close on the 27th. I'd suggest just keeping an eye out on those fringe players real life performances and of course reviewing all your current Live Gold and above level players since those have the most upside/downside risk in terms of PP value.

[BigRed75]

Originally Posted by webdox

Thanks for all the hard work.

First LIVE release netted me close to 200K in profits on cards that had jumped, 2 weeks ago it was around 140K.

This week..... We'll see. Selling them all off right now.

I am torn, I have over 35 Almonte's and think he might very well crack 90 before the end of the season. Sell for 35K or wait and hope for the cool 140K payday...

Think I'll sell half and sit on half...

Well, he's not likely to fall back down into silver - at least not in the next update - and then you've got one more update after that before ratings are locked.

I say you're better off kicking the can down the round for the next two weeks and see what happens in the penultimate update.

[allenciox]

So I have gone through the Sep 21 spreadsheet and this is what I calculate:

Cards rising (parentheses show the corresponding numbers for September 7, Aug 24, and Aug 10 update respectively)

90s->100: 0 ( 0, 0, 0)
80s->90s: 3 ( 5, 6, 8)
70s->80s: 13 (11, 21, 19)
60s->70s: 28 (22, 59, 51)
50s->60s: 18 (27, 27, 63)
Total: 62 (65,113,141)

Cards dropping:

100->90s: 1 ( 0, 0, 2)
90s->80s: 7 ( 3, 5, 4)
80s->70s: 10 (14, 13, 28)
70s->60s: 31 (37, 24, 55)
70s->50s 1 ( 0, 0, 0)
60s->50s: 22 (17, 30, 22)
Total: 72 (71, 72,111)

There were 1326 total cards, of which 46 were new.

The largest drop was 19 points, and 10 cards dropped at least 10 points. For the first time, a card dropped two tiers, as Ty Buttrey went from a 70 (silver) to a 59 (iron).

The biggest gain was 11 points shared by Salvador Perez (73->84) and Tyler Matzek (49->60). Only four cards rose at least ten points. There are still no cases of any player gaining more than one tier in a single update.

A significant number of players have changed two tiers across all updates this season: 12 up two tiers, but only 2 down two tiers:

Up two tiers:
Freddy Peralta(62->84)
Yency Almonte(69->81)
James Kannchak(65->84)
Dimelso Lamet(67->83)
Peter Fairbanks(71->87)
Jose Cisnero(59->72)
Mike Mayers(56->71)
Jalen Beeks(59->71)
Greg Holland(59->71)
Jonathan Hernandez(51->70)
Adrian Morejon(58->70)
Jake McGee(59->70)

Down two tiers:
Joe Jimenez(81->65)
Matt Barnes(80->68)

Takeaways:
It's astonishing how similar this update was to the one two weeks ago in raw numbers. Just like last time, a few more cards dropped tiers than rose tiers. For the first time, a card dropped (or rose) more than a single tier in a single update.

Developers still appear reluctant to move cards TO perfect level (none at all) or down FROM perfect level (only three so far this season). This is despite some perfect cards having subpar seasons: for example, Bellinger (wOBA=.319, WAR=0.7) is certainly not living up to ZiPS projections at start of season (.395 wOBA, 2.1 WAR). Yet he remains perfect.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by allenciox

Developers still appear reluctant to move cards TO perfect level (none at all) or down FROM perfect level (only three so far this season). This is despite some perfect cards having subpar seasons: for example, Bellinger (wOBA=.319, WAR=0.7) is certainly not living up to ZiPS projections at start of season (.395 wOBA, 2.1 WAR). Yet he remains perfect.

Just to clarify, there's no judgement on our parts involved in this. We're not putting our thumbs on the scale one way or another. It happens how it happens based on the algorithm.

[Sipimi]

Originally Posted by allenciox

Developers still appear reluctant to move cards

They aren't reluctant at all, the algorithm is !

Regarding Bellinger, maybe he was a 100+++ like Mike Trout, so even with a bad year, he's not going to go under 100.

Larger point being: it's not a human manipulation mistake/bias, it's an algorithm thing, so...it ends being human after all, but...eee...you know what I mean ? Not directly human, indirectly human (through code).