Base Stealing

ZootMurph · 07-20-2020, 12:29 PM

Can someone please explain to me why it is SO hard for good base stealers to steal bases? Rickey Henderson had over 80% success rate over his entire career. Since 2000, 4 of the top 5 base stealers had over 80% success rate (Juan Pierre had only 75.15%. Ichiro, Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins all had over 80% for their careers).

The guys that are GOOD base stealers should be able to steal bases successfully at around an 80% clip. But they can't in OOTP. This really needs to be changed in the game.

polydamas · 07-21-2020, 03:25 AM

You can fix this easily in the settings. I've attached what my settings are.

Notice how Barry Larkin is actually a better basestealer than he was IRL. His irl sb% was about 83% while in my game it was about 86%

Henry's is 87.5%. Wise's 87%. I have a lot more examples from this league. These were just the first 3 I looked at.

You should be able to fix it by bumping up the stolen base success % (mine is 1.050)

Edit: I found a guy with almost 90% success. I attached it (Reggie Smith).

fredbeene · 07-21-2020, 10:54 AM

i don't really understand the 'modifiers'
doesn't it take away from ratings of the competition?
ie who care is the catcher has a great arm, the computer says we have to average x amount of success rate

skunt3m · 07-21-2020, 02:21 PM

I was frustrated by this too. OOTP is aiming for a certain number of stolen bases and a certain success rate in any given year. The overall numbers are usually right on. However, the best/most prolific base stealers account for too much of the base stealing and thus also account for too many of the unsuccessful steals. My tests showed the top 20 base stealers in a given historical year stealing 15-20% more bases than the top 20 in reality.

I found that just increasing the success % modifier also increased the number of steals by the top guys - which was already too high. My compromise is to reduce attempts by 10% and increase success by 10% on opening day every year. This puts the overall success rate for the top 20 guys within 1 or 2% of reality and brings their attempts closer to reality without completely distorting the overall league totals.

I did all my testing from 77-82... OOTP might model the base stealing environment in the modern era better???

07-20-2020, 12:29 PM	#1
ZootMurph Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 124	Base Stealing Can someone please explain to me why it is SO hard for good base stealers to steal bases? Rickey Henderson had over 80% success rate over his entire career. Since 2000, 4 of the top 5 base stealers had over 80% success rate (Juan Pierre had only 75.15%. Ichiro, Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins all had over 80% for their careers). The guys that are GOOD base stealers should be able to steal bases successfully at around an 80% clip. But they can't in OOTP. This really needs to be changed in the game.

07-21-2020, 03:25 AM	#2
polydamas All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 604	You can fix this easily in the settings. I've attached what my settings are. Notice how Barry Larkin is actually a better basestealer than he was IRL. His irl sb% was about 83% while in my game it was about 86% Henry's is 87.5%. Wise's 87%. I have a lot more examples from this league. These were just the first 3 I looked at. You should be able to fix it by bumping up the stolen base success % (mine is 1.050) Edit: I found a guy with almost 90% success. I attached it (Reggie Smith). Attached Images Last edited by polydamas; 07-21-2020 at 03:34 AM.

07-21-2020, 10:54 AM	#3
fredbeene All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 1,668	i don't really understand the 'modifiers' doesn't it take away from ratings of the competition? ie who care is the catcher has a great arm, the computer says we have to average x amount of success rate

07-21-2020, 02:21 PM	#4
skunt3m Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 58	I was frustrated by this too. OOTP is aiming for a certain number of stolen bases and a certain success rate in any given year. The overall numbers are usually right on. However, the best/most prolific base stealers account for too much of the base stealing and thus also account for too many of the unsuccessful steals. My tests showed the top 20 base stealers in a given historical year stealing 15-20% more bases than the top 20 in reality. I found that just increasing the success % modifier also increased the number of steals by the top guys - which was already too high. My compromise is to reduce attempts by 10% and increase success by 10% on opening day every year. This puts the overall success rate for the top 20 guys within 1 or 2% of reality and brings their attempts closer to reality without completely distorting the overall league totals. I did all my testing from 77-82... OOTP might model the base stealing environment in the modern era better???