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Old 06-27-2020, 02:43 PM   #1
schmidtfan
Bat Boy
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 9
Unlikely comebacks in 7 game tournament series

Hi all,

relatively new to PT and I've spent some money building up a pretty good iron and bronze tourney team. I've noticed something weird and annoying though. At least like once or twice a day I'm up 3-0 or 3-1 in a tournament and the other team comes back. It just happened again--I was up 3-0 in the second round and barely held on to win 4-3, and then lost up 3-0 in the third round (I wanted that pack!).

I understand how probability works and recognize that I may be only noticing the cases where I'm victim to comebacks, but is it possible this isn't just the odds evening out?

Am I'm doing something wrong? Are other teams micromanaging to come back? Or is there a built-in balancing factor to make tournaments closer?

Any insight from veterans welcome...
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Old 06-27-2020, 03:25 PM   #2
Torgonius
All Star Reserve
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 848
Only once or twice a day?

In real life, 7 game series are relatively rare (5 a normal year in MLB), so when it happens, it's memorable.

In a single 32 team tournament, you have 31 of them. If you're pushing 3 teams, then that's 93 in a very short period of time. Even if it's a relatively rare occurance (let's pull 1 out of 20 from my rectal cavity, or 5%, that means you'll see at least 1 or 2 in each 32 team tournament. If we drop the odds to 1 in 40, you'll still probably see at least one in every tournament.

If you run lots of tournaments, then it's very likely to happen to you. And if you keep track, in the long run you'll find out you're the beneficiary as often as you are the victim.

I've victimized the same team in consecutive tournaments before, in the 1st round of each, only to have that same team come back and get me in the finals of other tournaments.

Most of the Bronze and Iron teams are very similar, reducing the game outcomes to virtual coin flips.
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Last edited by Torgonius; 06-27-2020 at 03:28 PM.
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Old 06-27-2020, 06:35 PM   #3
Warhawk
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 437
My last 5 tournaments:

-First round of the Daily Historical (Bo7), won the first 3 games, lost 4 in a row.
-Third round of the Daily High Cap (Bo5), won the first 2 games, lost 3 in a row.
-Finals of the Daily Early High Cap (Bo5), won the first game, lost 3 in a row.
-First round of the Daily Early Medium Cap (Bo5), won the first 2 games, lost 3 in a row.
-Third round of the Weekly Perfect Point Jackpot (Bo7), lost the first game, won the next 3, lost 3 in a row.

Yikes.
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Old 06-27-2020, 08:49 PM   #4
schmidtfan
Bat Boy
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Posts: 9
Thanks for the replies.

Warhawk--that's kind of how I feel. But I guess for everyone like us who's lamenting it, there's someone feeling good about their comebacks.

Torgonius--I only have one team, so out of maybe 10 tourneys a day, once a day feels like a lot, given that for this to happen I have to win the first three, which doesn't happen very much. But you're probably right...
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