Does xFIP mean anything in OOTP

brian_msbc · 06-25-2020, 09:09 AM

So I have Carlos Carrasco in an online league in 2021 (we use an external website that has xFIP). Carrasco has an ERA around 6 but an xFIP in the 3’s. So I’m assuming he is just getting unlucky, but now I’m wondering if xFIP will always be way lower for pitchers with a low movement rating?

I guess what I’m asking, does low movement = bad luck with Fly balls? Or does it just mean more hard hit fly balls?

brian_msbc · 06-25-2020, 09:12 AM

Actually I checked out his 2020 stats and he had a mid 3’s ERA which matched his mid 3’s xFIP. He’s probably just having bad luck this year.

So I think it appears that movement is directly related to flyballs, and not necessarily to Home Runs. Or am I still off track?

Matt Arnold · 06-25-2020, 09:45 AM

Xfip is fip except using a league-avg hr rate instead of how many hr they actually allowed. So yeah, a guy with low movement will tend to give up more hr than average, and thus will have a worse xfip

Argonaut · 06-25-2020, 11:24 AM

If I'm thinking about this right, a guy with low Movement will usually have an xFIP that is misleadingly good. FIP is probably a better stat for these guys.

I wouldn't use xFIP myself much, but where I could see it being useful is if you have a guy that has 50-55 MOV, but is giving up an unlucky amount of home runs. This often happens to a couple guys on a team in a given season.

CBeisbol · 06-25-2020, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Argonaut

If I'm thinking about this right, a guy with low Movement will usually have an xFIP that is misleadingly good.

Yes (or female player)
Because they will be expected to give up more HR than average because they give up more flyballs.

Someone should look at HR/FB rate and compare it to movement. Hopefully, HR/FB rate is somewhat constant

There is a definite correlation between movement and GB/FB tendencies

There should be an xFIP based off of a pitcher's FB% (xxFIP?)

wallewalls · 06-25-2020, 01:01 PM

xFIP is a stat I generally don't use much IRL as it just assumes a league-average HR rate, which I don't exactly like. If a pitcher in this game has an average or better movement rating (assuming the rating is correct) and they're still giving up too many HR I would expect a lot of that to come from bad luck, or it's an extreme offensive environment.

Also: SIERA needs to be in the game.

brian_msbc · 06-25-2020, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wallewalls

xFIP is a stat I generally don't use much IRL as it just assumes a league-average HR rate, which I don't exactly like. If a pitcher in this game has an average or better movement rating (assuming the rating is correct) and they're still giving up too many HR I would expect a lot of that to come from bad luck, or it's an extreme offensive environment.

Also: SIERA needs to be in the game.

But the stat heads use it for the very reason that they have concluded that HR/FB rate is not predictive... it’s luck based. Which means that Movement should effect FB%, and have no effect on HR/FB rate. Unless the developers of OOTP either disagree with these findings... or they just chose to ignore it.

RonCo · 06-25-2020, 05:01 PM

What do you think Movement in OOTP is?

CBeisbol · 06-25-2020, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

What do you think Movement in OOTP is?

There's a high correlation to fly ball rate

I don't know if it means anything more than that

RonCo · 06-25-2020, 09:07 PM

Per the user manual in your signature link: "Movement is a measure of the movement on a pitcher's pitches. It is harder for batters to make good contact with pitches that have good movement. As a result, pitchers with high Movement ratings tend to give up fewer home runs."

CBeisbol · 06-25-2020, 10:51 PM

Just took a quick look

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/....php?p=4663870

It appears that Movement is correlated with both HR/FB and FB%. More strongly with HR/FB.

RonCo · 06-26-2020, 12:06 AM

Realize that FB in OOTP is Fly ball outs, not fly balls.

I went to a script that runs through each plate appearance in a year for a 32 team league, and tabulated balls in play for every pitcher, as well as HR. I took all FB/PU/LD (because LD include HR) and then matched pitcher movement rating with their HR/FB.

If HR/FB is essentially normally centered on a league average, the correlation between movement and and HR/FB should not exist (or be, at best, very small).

So I ran correlations for all pitchers who saw at least 30 balls in play, then 100 balls in play, and 200, 300, and 500. The correlations started at -.34 (home runs per fly ball went down with increased movement), and as sample size went up the correlation went up to -.63, which is a pretty solid number and suggests that movement reduces HR/FB.

Code:

BIP	Correlation
30	-0.34
100	-0.4
200	-0.51
300	-0.58
500	-0.63

This makes sense given what Movement is in OOTP (the result of which is directly stated in the user manual), but would not seem to correspond to the real baseball idea that HR/FB is essentially luck.

brian_msbc · 06-26-2020, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Realize that FB in OOTP is Fly ball outs, not fly balls.

I went to a script that runs through each plate appearance in a year for a 32 team league, and tabulated balls in play for every pitcher, as well as HR. I took all FB/PU/LD (because LD include HR) and then matched pitcher movement rating with their HR/FB.

If HR/FB is essentially normally centered on a league average, the correlation between movement and and HR/FB should not exist (or be, at best, very small).

So I ran correlations for all pitchers who saw at least 30 balls in play, then 100 balls in play, and 200, 300, and 500. The correlations started at -.34 (home runs per fly ball went down with increased movement), and as sample size went up the correlation went up to -.63, which is a pretty solid number and suggests that movement reduces HR/FB.

Code:

BIP	Correlation
30	-0.34
100	-0.4
200	-0.51
300	-0.58
500	-0.63

This makes sense given what Movement is in OOTP (the result of which is directly stated in the user manual), but would not seem to correspond to the real baseball idea that HR/FB is essentially luck.

This is extremely helpful!! Sounds like xFIP can safely be ignored.

CBeisbol · 06-26-2020, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RonCo

Realize that FB in OOTP is Fly ball outs, not fly balls.

I went to a script that runs through each plate appearance in a year for a 32 team league, and tabulated balls in play for every pitcher, as well as HR. I took all FB/PU/LD (because LD include HR) and then matched pitcher movement rating with their HR/FB.

If HR/FB is essentially normally centered on a league average, the correlation between movement and and HR/FB should not exist (or be, at best, very small).

So I ran correlations for all pitchers who saw at least 30 balls in play, then 100 balls in play, and 200, 300, and 500. The correlations started at -.34 (home runs per fly ball went down with increased movement), and as sample size went up the correlation went up to -.63, which is a pretty solid number and suggests that movement reduces HR/FB.

Code:

BIP	Correlation
30	-0.34
100	-0.4
200	-0.51
300	-0.58
500	-0.63

This makes sense given what Movement is in OOTP (the result of which is directly stated in the user manual), but would not seem to correspond to the real baseball idea that HR/FB is essentially luck.

What kind of league was this?
Historic? Fictional?

RonCo · 06-26-2020, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

What kind of league was this?
Historic? Fictional?

This is a long-running fictional league. But I can't think of a reason you should find anything different in any other league unless you do something like tweak HR's to essentially zero via League Totals or ballpark effects--in which case the process runs the same way, but the difference in power hitters is so small that the relationships no longer have any significant influence in the outcomes.

Argonaut · 06-28-2020, 01:25 AM

As far as I know there's a "raw" Movement rating, and a %Groundball rating. These two things combined give a pitcher his aggregate MOV rating, which affects home runs.

I think the "raw" Movement is the more important factor. Although rare, there's some Flyball Pitchers with decent MOV and Groundball Pitchers with mediocre MOV out there.

What I don't really know is how the dice are rolled during a plate appearance. Does the game decide first whether or not it's a home run, so it being a flyball doesn't matter? Or does it decide a flyball is hit first, which may or may not turn out to be a home run?

Say an Extreme Flyball pitcher and Extreme Groundball pitcher have equal aggregate Movement. Will they give up the same amount of home runs? If so, perhaps the Flyball guy will be better because he'll have a lower BABIP. A flyball isn't so dangerous if you know it's going to stay in the park.

06-25-2020, 09:09 AM	#1
brian_msbc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 94	Does xFIP mean anything in OOTP So I have Carlos Carrasco in an online league in 2021 (we use an external website that has xFIP). Carrasco has an ERA around 6 but an xFIP in the 3’s. So I’m assuming he is just getting unlucky, but now I’m wondering if xFIP will always be way lower for pitchers with a low movement rating? I guess what I’m asking, does low movement = bad luck with Fly balls? Or does it just mean more hard hit fly balls?

06-25-2020, 11:24 AM	#4
Argonaut All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 1,085	If I'm thinking about this right, a guy with low Movement will usually have an xFIP that is misleadingly good. FIP is probably a better stat for these guys. I wouldn't use xFIP myself much, but where I could see it being useful is if you have a guy that has 50-55 MOV, but is giving up an unlucky amount of home runs. This often happens to a couple guys on a team in a given season. __________________ Texas Rangers Dynasty (Est. 1972) Hartford Whalers Dynasty: Brass Bonanza Last edited by Argonaut; 06-25-2020 at 11:26 AM.

06-26-2020, 12:06 AM	#12
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,512	Realize that FB in OOTP is Fly ball outs, not fly balls. I went to a script that runs through each plate appearance in a year for a 32 team league, and tabulated balls in play for every pitcher, as well as HR. I took all FB/PU/LD (because LD include HR) and then matched pitcher movement rating with their HR/FB. If HR/FB is essentially normally centered on a league average, the correlation between movement and and HR/FB should not exist (or be, at best, very small). So I ran correlations for all pitchers who saw at least 30 balls in play, then 100 balls in play, and 200, 300, and 500. The correlations started at -.34 (home runs per fly ball went down with increased movement), and as sample size went up the correlation went up to -.63, which is a pretty solid number and suggests that movement reduces HR/FB. Code: BIP Correlation 30 -0.34 100 -0.4 200 -0.51 300 -0.58 500 -0.63 This makes sense given what Movement is in OOTP (the result of which is directly stated in the user manual), but would not seem to correspond to the real baseball idea that HR/FB is essentially luck. Last edited by RonCo; 06-26-2020 at 12:19 AM.

06-28-2020, 01:25 AM	#16
Argonaut All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 1,085	As far as I know there's a "raw" Movement rating, and a %Groundball rating. These two things combined give a pitcher his aggregate MOV rating, which affects home runs. I think the "raw" Movement is the more important factor. Although rare, there's some Flyball Pitchers with decent MOV and Groundball Pitchers with mediocre MOV out there. What I don't really know is how the dice are rolled during a plate appearance. Does the game decide first whether or not it's a home run, so it being a flyball doesn't matter? Or does it decide a flyball is hit first, which may or may not turn out to be a home run? Say an Extreme Flyball pitcher and Extreme Groundball pitcher have equal aggregate Movement. Will they give up the same amount of home runs? If so, perhaps the Flyball guy will be better because he'll have a lower BABIP. A flyball isn't so dangerous if you know it's going to stay in the park. __________________ Texas Rangers Dynasty (Est. 1972) Hartford Whalers Dynasty: Brass Bonanza

06-25-2020, 09:12 AM	#2
brian_msbc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 94	Actually I checked out his 2020 stats and he had a mid 3’s ERA which matched his mid 3’s xFIP. He’s probably just having bad luck this year. So I think it appears that movement is directly related to flyballs, and not necessarily to Home Runs. Or am I still off track?

06-25-2020, 09:45 AM	#3
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 16,327	Xfip is fip except using a league-avg hr rate instead of how many hr they actually allowed. So yeah, a guy with low movement will tend to give up more hr than average, and thus will have a worse xfip

06-25-2020, 01:01 PM	#6
wallewalls All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 774 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	xFIP is a stat I generally don't use much IRL as it just assumes a league-average HR rate, which I don't exactly like. If a pitcher in this game has an average or better movement rating (assuming the rating is correct) and they're still giving up too many HR I would expect a lot of that to come from bad luck, or it's an extreme offensive environment. Also: SIERA needs to be in the game.

06-25-2020, 05:01 PM	#8
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,512	What do you think Movement in OOTP is?

06-25-2020, 09:07 PM	#10
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 10,512	Per the user manual in your signature link: "Movement is a measure of the movement on a pitcher's pitches. It is harder for batters to make good contact with pitches that have good movement. As a result, pitchers with high Movement ratings tend to give up fewer home runs."

06-25-2020, 10:51 PM	#11
CBeisbol Banned Join Date: Aug 2019 Location: Ban land in 3...2... Posts: 2,943	Just took a quick look https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/....php?p=4663870 It appears that Movement is correlated with both HR/FB and FB%. More strongly with HR/FB.