Rating top starters

[Tek15]

For higher leagues, what kind of system are you all using to figure out who to use as rotation pieces? Generally, I've been adding together Stuff/Movement/Control for each player and whoever has the highest totals usually goes into the rotation (as long as MOV is 80+) but I feel like I am overlooking better performing cards while watching cards that should theoretically perform well get shelled... I am looking at you, Perfect Roger Clemens!


Year after year I am seeing good results from Paige/Koufax/Maddux but beyond that cards like Pedro/Clemens/Matthews are inconsistent.


Thoughts?

[aaronhelman]

I feel like movement becomes more and more important as you get to higher levels. When you’re facing a lineup that has 7+ guys with power over 100, the ability to prevent homers becomes a lot more important than it is at lower levels.

[tbonetim]

Right now I would be cautious as to who you invest Perfect Points in when it comes to starters. I've been at the Diamond level for 8 of the past 9 seasons and at the moment there are few consistent historical SP's out there whose rating isn't a 100 (and even 100s can be up or down). Granted, we are just towards the end of June, but last year there were probably around 10-12 consistently above average SP's who were rated between 96-99. This year that number is maybe 2 so far. Still a lot more cards to be released in the weeks ahead so we may start seeing some more consistent pitchers appear between rated overall at 96-99 like last years version. Then again, they tweaked the rating system this year so that may also be playing a factor into why so few starters are posting decent stats.

[jasussman]

I use a system that I found in another thread on here last month, where you rate your pitchers based on Stuff, Movement, and Control. In this system, Stuff has a factor of 1, Movement = 2.4, and Control = 1.5.

Here's a link to the original thread: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...anding+ratings

So with this system, SE Greg Maddux has a rating of 459.

Stuff: 96 * 1 = 96
Movement: 90 * 2.4 = 216
Control: 98 * 1.5 = 147
Total: 96 + 216 + 147 = 459

You want to look for pitchers with a rating above 420 (probably 430 even) once you get to Diamond Level. (The other thread says 400, but I find that to be too low at Diamond Level.) I tend to avoid pitchers with extremely low control even if they have a good rating, as their performance can vary wildly from season to season. I also avoid RHP pitchers with really big platoon splits (like Old Hoss Radbourn), since the majority of at-bats at Diamond Level are versus LHB.

This system has definitely help me find some gems like Jack Quinn (94 OVR), who goes for 22000 in the AH. He provided 2.5+ rWAR per season for 4 seasons as a starter before I pulled a Perfect Pedro Martinez to replace him in the rotation.

[jasussman]

It is by no means a perfect system. But it definitely helps you sort the good (Historical Legend Perfect Greg Maddux) from the bad (All-Star Perfect J.R. Richard).

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by jasussman

It is by no means a perfect system. But it definitely helps you sort the good (Historical Legend Perfect Greg Maddux) from the bad (All-Star Perfect J.R. Richard).

Been using Richard as a closer. For five seasons he was really good, won 2 reliever of the year awards, one season with a 1.99 ERA, three with an ERA between 2.7 and 2.8, and one at 3.3. Last 2 seasons though he's in the high 4s and I'm about to pull the plug and put McDaniel back in.

I do wonder if that's overrating movement a bit though. My Guidry, with 76 MOV, who rates at 439.9, through over 1000 innings in Diamond has been clearly better than my peak Gibson, Joss, McCormick, and arguably Verlander (better FIP anyway) who all rate at a bit north of 450. Guidry has more stuff and roughly the same control as those guys, just less movement.

[CurlyKarkovice]

Ballpark factors and defense (or lack there of) are most important for pitcher consideration at first THEN get into ratings. I've been in Diamond for a while and Perfect a couple times the priorities for me are Control and not being split heavy to only one side. A guy with great stuff and lower than 79 control will walk as many as he strikes out in Perfect and some Diamond Leagues. A guy who is only stellar vs righties will get killed by LH lineups obviously and reverse that.

I don't have a park over 1.000 HR factor so the movement is less important to me. That is a cool formula above though. Maybe make adjusted ones based on extreme park factors too.

But then again there's one or two starting rotations that everyone uses to win at Perfect level so just make a goal to get some combo of Perfect Hubbell, Pedro, Maddux, Spahn, Koufax, Paige, 99 Rube like OP said there's only a couple more out there for now. Interested to see how perfect Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie fit in when they get picked up here soon.

[Tek15]

Originally Posted by CurlyKarkovice

Ballpark factors and defense (or lack there of) are most important for pitcher consideration at first THEN get into ratings. I've been in Diamond for a while and Perfect a couple times the priorities for me are Control and not being split heavy to only one side. A guy with great stuff and lower than 79 control will walk as many as he strikes out in Perfect and some Diamond Leagues. A guy who is only stellar vs righties will get killed by LH lineups obviously and reverse that.

I don't have a park over 1.000 HR factor so the movement is less important to me. That is a cool formula above though. Maybe make adjusted ones based on extreme park factors too.

But then again there's one or two starting rotations that everyone uses to win at Perfect level so just make a goal to get some combo of Perfect Hubbell, Pedro, Maddux, Spahn, Koufax, Paige, 99 Rube like OP said there's only a couple more out there for now. Interested to see how perfect Ed Walsh and Amos Rusie fit in when they get picked up here soon.

What makes Perfect Spahn top tier, compared to perfect versions of Clemens, Verlander, Grove, etc? Is it because of the great control, even though he seems to give up more hits than innings even at Diamond level?

[jasussman]

He's left-handed, has excellent control (best of the top lefty pitchers), and has a minuscule platoon split. I made Perfect League for the first time this week and 19 of the 36 teams have him in their rotations.

I don't have him yet, but he's atop my list of players to acquire.

Originally Posted by Tek15

What makes Perfect Spahn top tier, compared to perfect versions of Clemens, Verlander, Grove, etc? Is it because of the great control, even though he seems to give up more hits than innings even at Diamond level?

[Tek15]

Originally Posted by jasussman

He's left-handed, has excellent control (best of the top lefty pitchers), and has a minuscule platoon split. I made Perfect League for the first time this week and 19 of the 36 teams have him in their rotations.

I don't have him yet, but he's atop my list of players to acquire.

Haha, same - I'm in the AC West opposite you, best of luck!

[allenciox]

the only problem with Spahn is his price (around 200k last I checked). BTW, I use a slightly different equation to evaluate pitchers than the one you list: 1x STU, 2x MOV, 1.5 CON (or 2x STU, 4x MOV, 3x CON if you want to have even integers). I think 2.4 is a little higher than needed for the MOV component.

But these only apply if the components are over 50. Each point under 50 for STU and CON should be penalized about 2x the amount that points above 50 are credited, but for diamond and higher pitchers, that constraint rarely enters the picture.

Another thing to consider is your defense. If you have a really strong outfield defensively, go for flyball pitchers. If you have an elite infield but lower DEF outfield, consider groundball pitchers.