When to cut bait on underperforming star player?

rink23 · 06-02-2020, 08:18 PM

Just looking for some input.

Before the 2026 season, the St. Louis River Walkers acquired the then 26-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr.
At the time, he was rated the No. 1 third baseman in the game.
His first season, he batted .240 with 23 homers, 67 RBIs and put up a 2.4 WAR. (Along with 133 strikeouts).
In his second season, he batted .229 with 19 homers and 66 RBIs and put up a 1.3 WAR. (Along with 165 strikeouts).
After arbitration, he's set to make $18.8 million in 2028. He's still ranked the No. 5 third-baseman in the game, but his 1.3 WAR ranked him near the bottom of all starters.

He's still rated a four-star rated player by my scout (very high accuracy) and five-star by OSA (low accuracy).
But I am going to need him to hit Nos. 3 or 4 for me next season as I am going to lose my cleanup hitter via free agency.

Is he worth giving one more season, or should I shop him since we're just a month into the offseason?

Tony820 · 06-02-2020, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rink23

Just looking for some input.

Before the 2026 season, the St. Louis River Walkers acquired the then 26-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr.
At the time, he was rated the No. 1 third baseman in the game.
His first season, he batted .240 with 23 homers, 67 RBIs and put up a 2.4 WAR. (Along with 133 strikeouts).
In his second season, he batted .229 with 19 homers and 66 RBIs and put up a 1.3 WAR. (Along with 165 strikeouts).
After arbitration, he's set to make $18.8 million in 2028. He's still ranked the No. 5 third-baseman in the game, but his 1.3 WAR ranked him near the bottom of all starters.

He's still rated a four-star rated player by my scout (very high accuracy) and five-star by OSA (low accuracy).
But I am going to need him to hit Nos. 3 or 4 for me next season as I am going to lose my cleanup hitter via free agency.

Is he worth giving one more season, or should I shop him since we're just a month into the offseason?

What does the trade market look like for him? Do you have a replacement 3B to plug in?

rink23 · 06-02-2020, 09:47 PM

Best option in the organization is at AAA -- but he's more of a glove guy who will hit for average but not much power.
He's only 21, so he's probably at least a year away and we need a guy with some pop at that position.
Plenty of offers for him, including some really good starting pitchers with nice deals in their primes.
But I already have one the best rotations in the game, and it leaves me with a hole at third base.
Only really good third baseman being offered is Vlady Jr., and he's on a contract paying him $37M million through 2033. (We're going into the 2028 season).
Vlady put up huge numbers -- won a silver slugger while batting .259 with 52 homers and 116 RBIs -- in 2027 but his numbers have slightly dipped since being MVP in 2025.
However, his team itself has not been very good each of those seasons either.
Something to think about.

Brad K · 06-02-2020, 10:02 PM

Arbitration will pay him on his performance not his potential performance. Seems his potential performance is much higher than actual so there's a decent chance he wouldn't be over paid at arb amount.. I'd keep him for now and try to sign him for three years for less than the arb estimate.

phantomtollbooth · 06-02-2020, 10:08 PM

Two questions that might help you decide:
- What is his BABIP? If it was abnormally low, it’s possibly just bad luck.
- which way have his ratings been moving? Upwards? Might be ok. Downwards? Might be time to flip him for pitching and then flip the pitching for another third baseman

Meeko · 06-02-2020, 10:18 PM

You could also toss a prospect or two in to see if the team will retain some of Vladdys salary if you want to go that route.

I've been able to severely lesson the blow for a few guys that way.

rink23 · 06-02-2020, 10:46 PM

He already had his arbitration hearing, and won going from $17.6M to $18.4M.
His BABIP was ..298, which actually was an improvement from 2026 when it was .280.
However, in 2025, when he was with Cleveland it was .317.

jimmysthebestcop · 06-02-2020, 11:03 PM

Wrc+ and woba? Forget ratings see what those stats are. Stats will always show decline before stars and ratings.

pgjocki · 06-03-2020, 12:41 AM

I like to stick with an old scale that 1 WAR = $8 million for Arb and Free Agency. You sign a guy hoping he provides a better ratio as you want the most for your investment.

If he's already heading downward on stats before turning 30 there is no way I'm paying $20 million a year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

06-02-2020, 08:18 PM	#1
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 24,022	When to cut bait on underperforming star player? Just looking for some input. Before the 2026 season, the St. Louis River Walkers acquired the then 26-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. At the time, he was rated the No. 1 third baseman in the game. His first season, he batted .240 with 23 homers, 67 RBIs and put up a 2.4 WAR. (Along with 133 strikeouts). In his second season, he batted .229 with 19 homers and 66 RBIs and put up a 1.3 WAR. (Along with 165 strikeouts). After arbitration, he's set to make $18.8 million in 2028. He's still ranked the No. 5 third-baseman in the game, but his 1.3 WAR ranked him near the bottom of all starters. He's still rated a four-star rated player by my scout (very high accuracy) and five-star by OSA (low accuracy). But I am going to need him to hit Nos. 3 or 4 for me next season as I am going to lose my cleanup hitter via free agency. Is he worth giving one more season, or should I shop him since we're just a month into the offseason? Attached Images

06-02-2020, 09:47 PM	#3
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 24,022	Best option in the organization is at AAA -- but he's more of a glove guy who will hit for average but not much power. He's only 21, so he's probably at least a year away and we need a guy with some pop at that position. Plenty of offers for him, including some really good starting pitchers with nice deals in their primes. But I already have one the best rotations in the game, and it leaves me with a hole at third base. Only really good third baseman being offered is Vlady Jr., and he's on a contract paying him $37M million through 2033. (We're going into the 2028 season). Vlady put up huge numbers -- won a silver slugger while batting .259 with 52 homers and 116 RBIs -- in 2027 but his numbers have slightly dipped since being MVP in 2025. However, his team itself has not been very good each of those seasons either. Something to think about. Attached Images

06-02-2020, 10:46 PM	#7
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 24,022	He already had his arbitration hearing, and won going from $17.6M to $18.4M. His BABIP was ..298, which actually was an improvement from 2026 when it was .280. However, in 2025, when he was with Cleveland it was .317. Last edited by rink23; 06-02-2020 at 10:48 PM.

06-03-2020, 12:41 AM	#9
pgjocki All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2013 Location: Maryland - just outside DC Posts: 1,671	I like to stick with an old scale that 1 WAR = $8 million for Arb and Free Agency. You sign a guy hoping he provides a better ratio as you want the most for your investment. If he's already heading downward on stats before turning 30 there is no way I'm paying $20 million a year. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk __________________ - - - World Series championships: 1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1967, 1982, 2006, 2011

06-02-2020, 10:02 PM	#4
Brad K Banned Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,693 Infractions: 0/2 (4)	Arbitration will pay him on his performance not his potential performance. Seems his potential performance is much higher than actual so there's a decent chance he wouldn't be over paid at arb amount.. I'd keep him for now and try to sign him for three years for less than the arb estimate.

06-02-2020, 10:08 PM	#5
phantomtollbooth Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 152	Two questions that might help you decide: - What is his BABIP? If it was abnormally low, it’s possibly just bad luck. - which way have his ratings been moving? Upwards? Might be ok. Downwards? Might be time to flip him for pitching and then flip the pitching for another third baseman

06-02-2020, 10:18 PM	#6
Meeko Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 55	You could also toss a prospect or two in to see if the team will retain some of Vladdys salary if you want to go that route. I've been able to severely lesson the blow for a few guys that way.

06-02-2020, 11:03 PM	#8
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Wrc+ and woba? Forget ratings see what those stats are. Stats will always show decline before stars and ratings.