Guess the pitchers rating

fredbeene · 07-05-2019, 11:19 AM

I am trying to get better a looking just at ratings to see how it would make a player perform

Attached is statline for a pitcher...what do you think his ratings are for last line

I am guessing that the only components that really matter are hr/9, bb/9 k/9 and then add in DEF and holding runners and stamina for SP (since reliever are seem pegged at 17)

CrazyWR · 07-05-2019, 11:34 AM

I work on a 20-80 ratings section so...60/65/65?

chazzycat · 07-05-2019, 12:32 PM

Since these are MLB stats not PT I'm gonna go with lower values. STU is pretty horrible, way below average...maybe 30 of 80? MOV is very good, maybe 70? CON is about average, say 50. Stamina is elite (80)

Dogberry99 · 07-05-2019, 01:15 PM

Shouldn't it matter how these stats compared to the rest of the league in that specific year?

Drstrangelove · 07-06-2019, 11:48 AM

The only stats that attempt to adjust for park, era and league are ERA+ and WAR. All of the other stats are too context-dependent to be of use. Pitcher's stats from 1880, 1910, 1931, 1968, or 2019 are wildly different due to changes in parks, equipment, rules, travel, etc.

However, WAR doesn't help completely because in some eras, pitchers were batters; and, we don't know the hitting or fielding performance of the pitcher in the OP. Bumgarner earns +1 WAR on hitting. Koufax could almost LOSE 1 WAR from hitting. As his FIP might be much higher or lower than his nominal ERA, we lack sufficient information to determine overall rating. E.g., today, Scherzer has a 187 ERA+ with a 2.09 FIP, while Minor has a 197 ERA+ with a 3.77 FIP. But the FIP tells us Minor has been lucky or had great defense compared to Scherzer.

So he could be a slightly above average pitcher (~50) having a career year with a great defense behind him, or he could be the best pitcher in baseball (~80) having an off-season while throwing for a very poor defense.

Goliathus · 07-06-2019, 03:13 PM

Fun game, I will try. His HR/9 seems decent, I say 65 MOV. The BB is rather high so I say 50 CON. K is low, I will say 45 STU.

So, 45/65/50 on a 80 scale. But that all looks too low for a normal game, so I will go with 50/70/55 then. I am not good enough to predict stamina so I will pass on that.

Dogberry99 · 07-06-2019, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

Shouldn't it matter how these stats compared to the rest of the league in that specific year?

Drstrangelove answered the question I asked (thank you!), but it wasn't the one I intended.

Aren't the ratings based on how the accrued statistics compared to the rest of the league in that specific year? (in other words, for example, the actual number of home runs doesn't matter [nor does how high the HR/9 is] except for how they compare to others)

Westheim · 07-06-2019, 03:53 PM

47/50/57 on a 100 scale.

Dogberry99 · 07-06-2019, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Westheim

47/50/57 on a 100 scale.

Spoiler alert. Thanks for identifying him as the 1972 Steve Blass.

Westheim · 07-06-2019, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

Spoiler alert. Thanks for identifying him as the 1972 Steve Blass.

I did nothing. Google did it for me.

Not sure we needed another ratings complaint thread, though. There's already a dozen of them on the first two pages.

Dogberry99 · 07-06-2019, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Westheim

I did nothing. Google did it for me.

Not sure we needed another ratings complaint thread, though. There's already a dozen of them on the first two pages.

This wasn't a standard ratings complaint thread. Some of us were using it as a fun game to help illuminate how card ratings are created.

You must be a lot of fun at parties.

Westheim · 07-06-2019, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dogberry99

This wasn't a standard ratings complaint thread. Some of us were using it as a fun game to help illuminate how card ratings are created.

You must be a lot of fun at parties.

Parties?

fredbeene · 07-06-2019, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drstrangelove

The only stats that attempt to adjust for park, era and league are ERA+ and WAR. All of the other stats are too context-dependent to be of use. Pitcher's stats from 1880, 1910, 1931, 1968, or 2019 are wildly different due to changes in parks, equipment, rules, travel, etc.

However, WAR doesn't help completely because in some eras, pitchers were batters; and, we don't know the hitting or fielding performance of the pitcher in the OP. Bumgarner earns +1 WAR on hitting. Koufax could almost LOSE 1 WAR from hitting. As his FIP might be much higher or lower than his nominal ERA, we lack sufficient information to determine overall rating. E.g., today, Scherzer has a 187 ERA+ with a 2.09 FIP, while Minor has a 197 ERA+ with a 3.77 FIP. But the FIP tells us Minor has been lucky or had great defense compared to Scherzer.

So he could be a slightly above average pitcher (~50) having a career year with a great defense behind him, or he could be the best pitcher in baseball (~80) having an off-season while throwing for a very poor defense.

I always use scale 1-100
I don't think any ratings take into account the team def.
I don't think W L and S factor in? Maybe Save conversions should but not the raw number.....

Anyway here is the player: Steve Blass SP Pit 1972 rated a 60.
He would be a 100 million player today based on this season and have a live card in the 90s : )

In IRL limited 11.2 IP 6BB 6K 1.5 HR/K 4.6 BB/9 4.6 k/9

Control must be based on BB/9
I really don't get the difference between stuff and movement. K/9 can affect either.
I don't think HR/9 effects anything accept whether they are a GB or Flyball pitcher

Since the real SPLITS aren't available, I am guessing that the SPLIT ratings are guesses???

fredbeene · 07-06-2019, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goliathus

Fun game, I will try. His HR/9 seems decent, I say 65 MOV. The BB is rather high so I say 50 CON. K is low, I will say 45 STU.

So, 45/65/50 on a 80 scale. But that all looks too low for a normal game, so I will go with 50/70/55 then. I am not good enough to predict stamina so I will pass on that.

Isn't stamina the easy one. IP/G? maybe a boost factor for CG.

Goliathus · 07-07-2019, 12:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Isn't stamina the easy one. IP/G? maybe a boost factor for CG.

Starters get pulled if they pitch bad or they stay longer than they should if the opponent's batters keep whiffing even when dude is on 0% stamina, that would skew up the stats so I don't consider IP/G as absolute as the other pitching stats that gauge the big three stats. Granted, this one is likely a premier pitcher seeing that he has 19-8 for the season and has 2+ ERA, so the IP/G is probably more accurate, but to me, it's still a harder stat to predict than the big three.

Westheim · 07-07-2019, 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fredbeene

He would be a 100 million player today

No, he would not be. Not even remotely close. Not even the same ballpark.

The real Steve Blass Syndrome should be how a guy with BB,K,HR/9 this mediocre could come up with that record and ERA in the first place. Let's call it Steve Blass Miracle. GMs today are generally wiser than this.

Except maybe the Mets'.

07-05-2019, 11:19 AM	#1
fredbeene All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 1,690 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Guess the pitchers rating I am trying to get better a looking just at ratings to see how it would make a player perform Attached is statline for a pitcher...what do you think his ratings are for last line I am guessing that the only components that really matter are hr/9, bb/9 k/9 and then add in DEF and holding runners and stamina for SP (since reliever are seem pegged at 17) Attached Images Last edited by fredbeene; 07-05-2019 at 11:22 AM.

07-05-2019, 01:15 PM	#4
Dogberry99 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Wichita Falls, TX Posts: 1,328	Shouldn't it matter how these stats compared to the rest of the league in that specific year? __________________ "And, Masters, do not forget to specify, when time and place shall serve, that I am an [censored]." (Much Ado About Nothing 5.1.255-256) Primary Team Collection Rewards (Cards & Packs) F2P Theme Team Movers F2P Theme and Adam Schlesinger Memorial Team

07-06-2019, 11:48 AM	#5
Drstrangelove Major Leagues Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 346	The only stats that attempt to adjust for park, era and league are ERA+ and WAR. All of the other stats are too context-dependent to be of use. Pitcher's stats from 1880, 1910, 1931, 1968, or 2019 are wildly different due to changes in parks, equipment, rules, travel, etc. However, WAR doesn't help completely because in some eras, pitchers were batters; and, we don't know the hitting or fielding performance of the pitcher in the OP. Bumgarner earns +1 WAR on hitting. Koufax could almost LOSE 1 WAR from hitting. As his FIP might be much higher or lower than his nominal ERA, we lack sufficient information to determine overall rating. E.g., today, Scherzer has a 187 ERA+ with a 2.09 FIP, while Minor has a 197 ERA+ with a 3.77 FIP. But the FIP tells us Minor has been lucky or had great defense compared to Scherzer. So he could be a slightly above average pitcher (~50) having a career year with a great defense behind him, or he could be the best pitcher in baseball (~80) having an off-season while throwing for a very poor defense. Last edited by Drstrangelove; 07-06-2019 at 12:32 PM.

07-06-2019, 03:53 PM	#8
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 14,184	47/50/57 on a 100 scale. __________________ Portland Raccoons, 96 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 * 2061 * 2071 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

07-05-2019, 11:34 AM	#2
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	I work on a 20-80 ratings section so...60/65/65?

07-05-2019, 12:32 PM	#3
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Since these are MLB stats not PT I'm gonna go with lower values. STU is pretty horrible, way below average...maybe 30 of 80? MOV is very good, maybe 70? CON is about average, say 50. Stamina is elite (80)

07-06-2019, 03:13 PM	#6
Goliathus Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 449	Fun game, I will try. His HR/9 seems decent, I say 65 MOV. The BB is rather high so I say 50 CON. K is low, I will say 45 STU. So, 45/65/50 on a 80 scale. But that all looks too low for a normal game, so I will go with 50/70/55 then. I am not good enough to predict stamina so I will pass on that.