Diamond Pack Discussion

[atabakin]

These diamond packs are intriguing given how valuable some of the historical pitchers are. However, I can't help but be disappointed since Kris said in a stream that diamond packs would likely have improved odds of getting other high cards compared to bronze/gold packs. No such luck.

Anyone taking the jump and plunking down 20K to try their luck?

[CrazyWR]

Seems like a worse bargain than the gold packs to me. The corresponding payoff is higher but...live diamonds are much more likely and you're losing out on at least 10k per pack at that rate. Thoughts?

ETA: 100k gets you 5 diamond packs or 100 standard packs -- in which 5 diamonds are probable, although not guaranteed....I can't say I'd go with the 5 diamond packs.

[Charlatan]

I've not heard of these. What are the various odds of getting the different cards in that pack?

[mcdog512]

Here are the odds.....

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

I've not heard of these. What are the various odds of getting the different cards in that pack?

Stickied post from Markus. Same odds.

[Charlatan]

Thanks for the update. Hadn't heard of the pack until just now.

Doesn't seem worth it to me, but I'm sure we will see people posting images of opening them and getting three diamonds out of a pack!

[nickwatic]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Thanks for the update. Hadn't heard of the pack until just now.

Doesn't seem worth it to me, but I'm sure we will see people posting images of opening them and getting three diamonds out of a pack!

Several people in the discord have posted getting 2 diamonds in one diamond pack already

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by nickwatic

Several people in the discord have posted getting 2 diamonds in one diamond pack already

That's not surprising since you'd expect that to happen around 3% of the time.

Anyway, the "expected value" of a random card is about 80, with the expected value of the 5 non-guaranteed cards in a pack being about 401.

That means that comparing 20 standard packs, 4 gold packs, and 1 diamond pack, you get total expected values (rounded to the nearest PP) of:

Standard: 8,527 PP
Gold: 5,606 PP
Diamond: 4,401 PP

So standard packs give you the best return, so long as you're willing to accept the risk that you get unlucky and go on a long run of crap. Gold and Diamond give you guarantees, but in the long run you're getting less value.

[atabakin]

Originally Posted by Warhawk

Anyway, the "expected value" of a random card is about 80, with the expected value of the 5 non-guaranteed cards in a pack being about 401.

Doesn't that use only the quick-sell value? I think the actual expected value would be a bit higher for historicals. The EV of 5 non-guaranteed cards would probably still be less than 1000, but higher than 401 if you're willing to use the auction house.

[IcedT22]

Bought 2 Diamond Packs and got 2 diamond cards in both.

They aren't worth the cost. I got lucky and pulled a 96 Lincecum. The other 3 diamonds combined weren't worth the cost of 1 Diamond Pack.

[Chico Guilbault]

Originally Posted by Warhawk

you get unlucky and go on a long run of crap.

Also known as my weekend...

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by atabakin

Doesn't that use only the quick-sell value? I think the actual expected value would be a bit higher for historicals. The EV of 5 non-guaranteed cards would probably still be less than 1000, but higher than 401 if you're willing to use the auction house.

Yes, that's using the quick sell value. I imagine if I were to do a calculation incorporating that, however, standard packs would actually come out further ahead, because the only cards that get really out of whack with AH prices versus quick sell value are the historical perfects and a handful of high end historical diamonds and more cards means more cracks at them.

[Warhawk]

Originally Posted by atabakin

Doesn't that use only the quick-sell value? I think the actual expected value would be a bit higher for historicals. The EV of 5 non-guaranteed cards would probably still be less than 1000, but higher than 401 if you're willing to use the auction house.

In the interest of trying to ballpark it - and let me know if you think the values should be different - I altered the values of the cards to about 25% more than the quicksell base value for "normal" cards and added a 1-in-10 chance of a "jackpot" gold, diamond, or perfect (that is, 1 in 10 golds, diamonds, or perfects will be jackpot cards) which I valued at 7,500, 50,000, and 500,000 respectively. Worked out to an expected value of 19,704 for 20 standard packs, 11,317 for 4 gold packs, and 10,454 for 1 diamond pack.

[moalkha]

With the last Live update there are to many crappy diamonds to bet on diamond packs.

I would not like to spend 20k points for A.J. Minter

[Westheim]

I like blowing coin on stupid **** from time to time.

But I'm not plonking down 20 bucks to pull a second Conforto (now a 90).

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by Westheim

I like blowing coin on stupid **** from time to time.

But I'm not plonking down 20 bucks to pull a second Conforto (now a 90).

But you might pull a Jackie Robinson or Shoeless Joe Jackson too. It's a high risk/high reward option for sure.

[webdox]

I felt like making myself regret something else today so I bought one just for S's & G's and did not disappoint... Got a 93 Dwight Evans worth about 8K give or take so not worth it. Could have been worse though.

I was hoping the Special Packs would indeed be something special with better odds than the other two pack types but it was fun none the less for the chance at greatness...

Next it might be 50K for a guaranteed Perfect Pack...

[PocketsAintFull]

20k! Good luck with that.

[jda]

Originally Posted by webdox

Next it might be 50K for a guaranteed Perfect Pack...

If they're using the same ratio (5x the cost of auto-selling the card), then "perfect packs" would cost 100k each.


I think it's pretty clear that the cheaper the pack, the more cost-effective (although at this point the auction house is probably a lot more cost-effective than any packs).

[dkgo]

the best part of this is that it should lead to a large supply of diamonds on the marketplace and some good deals to scoop up