RNG pack drop rate a joke!

Xogo · 03-28-2019, 09:44 AM

Going to guess the devs will just say "bad rng luck" as excuse.

Ive opened ~800 regular packs, could be close to 1000. Thats at least 5000 cards.

Not one single 100 card!!!!

I wish there was a pack counter and card breakdown history so we could share the exact data. But all that would only prove their drop rates are way off and a total lie.

Done with this game!

atabakin · 03-28-2019, 09:57 AM

If you've gone through 1,000 packs, that's 5,000 cards (five cards per pack that could be a perfect since one has to be a bronze). If each card has a 0.1% chance of being a perfect, the chance of getting no perfects in 5,000 cards is 0.67%, or roughly one out of 150. *Exceptionally* bad luck, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Did you get any good historical diamonds? I've pulled five perfects, but my favorite/best card is a diamond historical pitcher.

rtkretz · 03-28-2019, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

I've pulled five perfects

I have pulled five as well on, conservatively, ~400 packs. Sometimes you beat the odds, sometimes your luck runs cold. Kris said on the Monday This Week In PT that the odds are verified everyday, and have been almost spot on up to this point.

The game isn't broken, the drop rates aren't a lie. You bought lottery tickets, lost, and got mad...

Splitter24 · 03-28-2019, 10:22 AM

Never mind.

Matt Arnold · 03-28-2019, 10:57 AM

Sorry you've been unlucky so far. You probably should have 4-5 more perfect cards based on the number of packs you have opened. But on the flipside, you have gotten about 4-5 more Diamond cards than expected (0.73%, whereas the expected number of diamonds is a little less). You've been very lucky on diamond pulls from those Gold Packs, even if the perfect is still missing.

<Pion> · 03-28-2019, 01:44 PM

I really thought (hoped) that OOTP20 would be a change to my luck, but it wasn't so. IIRC, I've had two perfect pulls but both were during beta leagues and therefore short lived. Fortunately, I did pull a Sliding Billy Hamilton as my most interesting card in PT to date.

HRBaker · 03-28-2019, 02:19 PM

I pulled 2 Perfects and 2 Diamonds with my first team within my first 3 game months. At the time I thought "How Cool!", never realizing until later exactly how lucky I had gotten.

Since then I've created 3 other teams that have a grand total of 1 Diamond card in their first 3 game months of existence.

I definitely used up my luck for a while...lol

Bunktown Ballers · 03-28-2019, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xogo

Going to guess the devs will just say "bad rng luck" as excuse.

Ive opened ~800 regular packs, could be close to 1000. Thats at least 5000 cards.

Not one single 100 card!!!!

I wish there was a pack counter and card breakdown history so we could share the exact data. But all that would only prove their drop rates are way off and a total lie.

Done with this game!

I've never received at 90+ card in all packs Ive bought..Never....Every 90+ card I have I've gotten from auction. I've never gotten 2 GOLD cards in 1 pack. I have 6 PT teams but only a total of like 8-9, 90+ cards. I'm done buying packs, they are a waste of my points & money. I also kinda wish I hadn't started PT with OOTP 20. It's discouraging to have to play with regular cards & stay competive. I'll prolly just let it run on it's own & do what I like to do best. Play OOTP regualr seasons

BB

Bunktown Ballers · 03-28-2019, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

If you've gone through 1,000 packs, that's 5,000 cards (five cards per pack that could be a perfect since one has to be a bronze). If each card has a 0.1% chance of being a perfect, the chance of getting no perfects in 5,000 cards is 0.67%, or roughly one out of 150. *Exceptionally* bad luck, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Did you get any good historical diamonds? I've pulled five perfects, but my favorite/best card is a diamond historical pitcher.

My best pitcher card ever is a 1971 TOP WAR 88 Wilbur Wood card. Hands down IMO

dkgo · 03-28-2019, 06:20 PM

packs are horrible EV in anything that has packs

but thank you everyone who buys them for filling the auction house for the rest of us

OMGPuppies · 03-28-2019, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgo

packs are horrible EV in anything that has packs

but thank you everyone who buys them for filling the auction house for the rest of us

Agreed. I have one pack only team and appreciate those that open packs. I wish more did because some players are super scarce on the auction house.

Orcin · 03-28-2019, 07:24 PM

Question... if the drop rates from packs are so horrible, where do you think all of these 90+ cards on the auction house are coming from?

mcdog512 · 03-28-2019, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

Question... if the drop rates from packs are so horrible, where do you think all of these 90+ cards on the auction house are coming from?

Thin air?

Well, it's my only other theory...

bailey · 03-28-2019, 07:36 PM

It amazes me that anyone would take the time to put up a Iron or Bronze card for minimum bid of 5 or 25 and if it sells at the minimum lose 1 or 2 PP for the effort. (Compared to selling back to the house).

I got 4 live diamonds for my pack opening, 2 Snells, and if he continues to pitch like he did today, I might lose those to a downgrade.

Drezik · 03-28-2019, 07:44 PM

I feel like I've been pretty lucky on the DIamond cards, got some decent ones that I've sold but pretty unlucky in regards to Perfects.

waittilnextyear · 03-28-2019, 08:23 PM

I've opened 5 standard packs so far. Pulled a diamond player in 3 in a row (Familia, Judge, Stanky) as well as a couple of golds. I bet if you sum all of our pack luck, you'd get the right pack odds.

PocketsAintFull · 03-28-2019, 10:26 PM

To be fair, the odds (and pricing) are way better in PT than any other sports game i've seen or played.

STLRS95 · 03-29-2019, 10:05 AM

Just had this pack and a total of 2 diamonds and 4 Gold in a 15 pack stretch. Actually 1 Diamond and 4 Gold in the last 5 out of the 15 packs. The other Diamond was Altuve and the other Golds were Urias Future Legend and Hicks.

waittilnextyear · 03-29-2019, 08:48 PM

Opened 3 more regular packs today and pulled a diamond Edwin Diaz. That makes 4 diamond players and 3 golds in about 10 packs so far.

UltimateAverageGuy · 03-29-2019, 08:52 PM

lol

the tears

03-28-2019, 09:44 AM	#1
Xogo Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 216	RNG pack drop rate a joke! Going to guess the devs will just say "bad rng luck" as excuse. Ive opened ~800 regular packs, could be close to 1000. Thats at least 5000 cards. Not one single 100 card!!!! I wish there was a pack counter and card breakdown history so we could share the exact data. But all that would only prove their drop rates are way off and a total lie. Done with this game!

03-28-2019, 10:22 AM	#4
Splitter24 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Willsboro, NY Posts: 2,895	Never mind. __________________ Currently Reading: The Sympathizer by Viet Thanh Nguyen "Well, the game is afoot. I’ll take anal bum cover for 7,000." - "Sean Connery" SNL Celebrity Jeopardy R.I.P. Tommy Holmes 1917-2008 Last edited by Splitter24; 03-28-2019 at 11:20 AM.

03-28-2019, 10:57 AM	#5
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,484	Sorry you've been unlucky so far. You probably should have 4-5 more perfect cards based on the number of packs you have opened. But on the flipside, you have gotten about 4-5 more Diamond cards than expected (0.73%, whereas the expected number of diamonds is a little less). You've been very lucky on diamond pulls from those Gold Packs, even if the perfect is still missing. Last edited by Matt Arnold; 03-28-2019 at 11:03 AM.

03-28-2019, 02:19 PM	#7
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,320	I pulled 2 Perfects and 2 Diamonds with my first team within my first 3 game months. At the time I thought "How Cool!", never realizing until later exactly how lucky I had gotten. Since then I've created 3 other teams that have a grand total of 1 Diamond card in their first 3 game months of existence. I definitely used up my luck for a while...lol __________________ *HRB*

03-28-2019, 07:36 PM	#14
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,315	It amazes me that anyone would take the time to put up a Iron or Bronze card for minimum bid of 5 or 25 and if it sells at the minimum lose 1 or 2 PP for the effort. (Compared to selling back to the house). I got 4 live diamonds for my pack opening, 2 Snells, and if he continues to pitch like he did today, I might lose those to a downgrade. Last edited by bailey; 03-28-2019 at 07:37 PM.

03-28-2019, 09:57 AM	#2
atabakin All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 762	If you've gone through 1,000 packs, that's 5,000 cards (five cards per pack that could be a perfect since one has to be a bronze). If each card has a 0.1% chance of being a perfect, the chance of getting no perfects in 5,000 cards is 0.67%, or roughly one out of 150. Exceptionally bad luck, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Did you get any good historical diamonds? I've pulled five perfects, but my favorite/best card is a diamond historical pitcher.

03-28-2019, 01:44 PM	#6
<Pion> All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,428	I really thought (hoped) that OOTP20 would be a change to my luck, but it wasn't so. IIRC, I've had two perfect pulls but both were during beta leagues and therefore short lived. Fortunately, I did pull a Sliding Billy Hamilton as my most interesting card in PT to date.

03-28-2019, 06:20 PM	#10
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	packs are horrible EV in anything that has packs but thank you everyone who buys them for filling the auction house for the rest of us

03-28-2019, 07:24 PM	#12
Orcin Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Indiana Posts: 9,844	Question... if the drop rates from packs are so horrible, where do you think all of these 90+ cards on the auction house are coming from?

03-28-2019, 07:44 PM	#15
Drezik Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 104	I feel like I've been pretty lucky on the DIamond cards, got some decent ones that I've sold but pretty unlucky in regards to Perfects.

03-28-2019, 08:23 PM	#16
waittilnextyear All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,273	I've opened 5 standard packs so far. Pulled a diamond player in 3 in a row (Familia, Judge, Stanky) as well as a couple of golds. I bet if you sum all of our pack luck, you'd get the right pack odds.

03-28-2019, 10:26 PM	#17
PocketsAintFull All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Birmingham, UK Posts: 1,867	To be fair, the odds (and pricing) are way better in PT than any other sports game i've seen or played. __________________ ---------------- Bob Uecker, RIP

03-29-2019, 10:05 AM	#18
STLRS95 All Star Reserve Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: North Carolina Posts: 673 Blog Entries: 1	Just had this pack and a total of 2 diamonds and 4 Gold in a 15 pack stretch. Actually 1 Diamond and 4 Gold in the last 5 out of the 15 packs. The other Diamond was Altuve and the other Golds were Urias Future Legend and Hicks. Attached Images __________________ *The WIBL is coming in 2024.*

03-29-2019, 08:48 PM	#19
waittilnextyear All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 1,273	Opened 3 more regular packs today and pulled a diamond Edwin Diaz. That makes 4 diamond players and 3 golds in about 10 packs so far.

03-29-2019, 08:52 PM	#20
UltimateAverageGuy All Star Reserve Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 587	lol the tears