How soon is too soon to give up on a perfect card?

IcedT22 · 03-27-2019, 03:57 PM

Was super excited when I pulled a live Arenado. He's supposedly a good hitter and a terrific defender.

He's fielding like I would expect but the offense is anemic. He didn't hit well last week in the fake games (under .250 with middling power numbers) but I figured it was just a fluke. Through 2.5 months of the first real season he's .238/.308/.440. with a .246 BABIP. I'm in Iron, so it's not like he's facing dominant (or even good) pitching. Starting to think I pulled one of those unlucky bad BABIP cards.

How long do you guys give a card to perform in the game before selling it and trying something else? A few months? A season? More than one season?

atabakin · 03-27-2019, 03:59 PM

In general with live perfect cards (aside from Trout and maybe a couple others), I would sell as soon as you get the inclination. A week of bad real-life performance could drop a live card down to a diamond and the value of the card could get cut in half or worse even if it loses only a few points here and there.

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:06 PM

there's no such thing as an unlucky BABIP card. BABIP takes years to be a trustable stat as well. If you like his ratings, stick with him. If you don't, find someone else.

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

In general with live perfect cards (aside from Trout and maybe a couple others), I would sell as soon as you get the inclination. A week of bad real-life performance could drop a live card down to a diamond and the value of the card could get cut in half or worse even if it loses only a few points here and there.

I don't agree with this either. The ratings are based on projections, which won't change that much due to 1 week of performance. The value of cards will probably not be drastically changing from week to week. Projection systems heavily regress everything to the mean of past performance. So a player would have to have a sustained, meaningful change in their output to change the ratings a lot.

zrog2000 · 03-27-2019, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I don't agree with this either. The ratings are based on projections, which won't change that much due to 1 week of performance. The value of cards will probably not be drastically changing from week to week. Projection systems heavily regress everything to the mean of past performance. So a player would have to have a sustained, meaningful change in their output to change the ratings a lot.

The ratings don't have to change a lot. If Arenado's rating goes from 100 to 99, the value plummets. There's no way a 99 Arenado would be worth anywhere close to 20k PP. It would be closer to 5K.

atabakin · 03-27-2019, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I don't agree with this either. The ratings are based on projections, which won't change that much due to 1 week of performance. The value of cards will probably not be drastically changing from week to week. Projection systems heavily regress everything to the mean of past performance. So a player would have to have a sustained, meaningful change in their output to change the ratings a lot.

Sure, there won't be much movement at the beginning of the season. But if you're sitting on a card and not sure what to do, and the player starts the week 0-11, why risk it? Again it depends on the player. Someone like Trout has a unique skill set usable even if he were to lose enough to drop to diamond. Arenado is just more valuable in real life than in PT.

atabakin · 03-27-2019, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

The ratings don't have to change a lot. If Arenado's rating goes from 100 to 99, the value plummets. There's no way a 99 Arenado would be worth anywhere close to 20k PP. It would be closer to 5K.

Further to this point, Arenado is probably a lot closer to falling out of the perfect realm than some other live perfects. Mookie can have a bad week and still be in the top live cards. A slow start for Arenado combined with a fast start for, say Rendon, and boom.

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

The ratings don't have to change a lot. If Arenado's rating goes from 100 to 99, the value plummets. There's no way a 99 Arenado would be worth anywhere close to 20k PP. It would be closer to 5K.

That is a good point, dropping tiers would have a significant impact on the value. I guess I was more speaking in general. I have seen a lot of comments about the cards jumping all over the place from week to week and I really just don't think that's going to be the case.

OMGPuppies · 03-27-2019, 04:29 PM

Another reason why I get rid of all my LIVE cards. I don't want the stress of a card dropping in value.

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

Further to this point, Arenado is probably a lot closer to falling out of the perfect realm than some other live perfects. Mookie can have a bad week and still be in the top live cards. A slow start for Arenado combined with a fast start for, say Rendon, and boom.

Arenado is 27 years old, coming off three straight 5+ WAR seasons, 6 straight gold gloves, and plays in the best hitter park in baseball. It doesn't get much safer than that IMO. But to each his own.

zrog2000 · 03-27-2019, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Arenado is 27 years old, coming off three straight 5+ WAR seasons, 6 straight gold gloves, and plays in the best hitter park in baseball. It doesn't get much safer than that IMO. But to each his own.

The other point is that he has nowhere to go but down.

atabakin · 03-27-2019, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Arenado is 27 years old, coming off three straight 5+ WAR seasons, 6 straight gold gloves, and plays in the best hitter park in baseball. It doesn't get much safer than that IMO. But to each his own.

I actually hadn't looked at his ratings in PT 2.0 till just now... they are higher than what they were in 19, which is what I based my comments on. He has a little bit more wiggle room than I thought. His real-life value was higher than his ratings in 19, but the current ratings are a more accurate reflection.

OMGPuppies · 03-27-2019, 04:41 PM

Maybe a downside of the changing values of LIVE cards is that cards are kept out of circulation by speculators.

HiDesertAce · 03-27-2019, 04:45 PM

Arenado is one of the best LIVE perfect cards imo

trainable at other postions. 90 at 1b, 70 at 2b

what are your park factors? have you faced predominantly RH pitching? he mashes LHP, but not great OBP vs RH.

the only reason I would sell is if you could get a premium. then buy him back later for less when AH prices stabilize

its way too early to sell a card like this unless you have someone waiting in the wings.

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

The other point is that he has nowhere to go but down.

Well sure, anything could happen. But it's quite unlikely. You could make that argument about literally any top live card.

And I guess that's the point you guys are trying to make? There is some truth to the idea that perfect live players would carry some additional risk of their rating dropping down to diamond. I agree with that. But I do think it would take more than a bad week. A bad month maybe.

Also live diamond 3B are not 5k...having picked up 3 of them recently they are much closer to 10k

chazzycat · 03-27-2019, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

I actually hadn't looked at his ratings in PT 2.0 till just now... they are higher than what they were in 19, which is what I based my comments on. He has a little bit more wiggle room than I thought. His real-life value was higher than his ratings in 19, but the current ratings are a more accurate reflection.

yeah, Zips goes back 4 years. 5 years ago he was just a 2.5 WAR player, but then he had 4 straight really good years. So his projections for 2019 are the best of his career and so should the ratings.

IcedT22 · 03-27-2019, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HiDesertAce

Arenado is one of the best LIVE perfect cards imo

what are your park factors? have you faced predominantly RH pitching? he mashes LHP, but not great OBP vs RH.

its way too early to sell a card like this unless you have someone waiting in the wings.

My team is primarily RH hitters so I have positive park factors on that side and negative for LH hitters. He's been a little better against LHP, but it's pretty far from mashing.

.242/.338/.371 vs LHP
.224/.284/.434 vs RHP

I also packed live Jose Ramirez but I've been using him as a super utility type because Arenado's defense is far superior at third.

I call BS on there's no such thing as bad BABIP cards. Maybe it's not not BABIP, maybe it's luck or something else. There's definitely good and bad versions of the same cards. I had a JD Martinez card in 19 that could not hit above .260 from Bronze through Gold, even though there were always several JD Martinez in my leagues that were winning MVP's and triple crowns. Finally threw in the towel and bought another Martinez card. Put it in my same lineup, in same park, in Diamond and Perfect and it has never hit below .295 or had less than 32 HR. Did the same things with Altuve, Rendon, & Freeman with similar results.

pappyzan · 03-27-2019, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IcedT22

There's definitely good and bad versions of the same cards.

This is retarded

Markus Heinsohn · 03-28-2019, 04:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IcedT22

There's definitely good and bad versions of the same cards.

Nope.

This clears it up: https://garstats.wordpress.com/2017/...-sample-sizes/

IcedT22 · 03-28-2019, 06:57 AM

Of course it's small sample sizes now here in PT in OOTP20. My JD Martinez example is from PT in OOTP19. Looking at trends over 10+ seasons is a sufficient sample to begin noticing interesting things.

03-27-2019, 03:57 PM	#1
IcedT22 Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 19	How soon is too soon to give up on a perfect card? Was super excited when I pulled a live Arenado. He's supposedly a good hitter and a terrific defender. He's fielding like I would expect but the offense is anemic. He didn't hit well last week in the fake games (under .250 with middling power numbers) but I figured it was just a fluke. Through 2.5 months of the first real season he's .238/.308/.440. with a .246 BABIP. I'm in Iron, so it's not like he's facing dominant (or even good) pitching. Starting to think I pulled one of those unlucky bad BABIP cards. How long do you guys give a card to perform in the game before selling it and trying something else? A few months? A season? More than one season?

03-27-2019, 03:59 PM	#2
atabakin All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 762	In general with live perfect cards (aside from Trout and maybe a couple others), I would sell as soon as you get the inclination. A week of bad real-life performance could drop a live card down to a diamond and the value of the card could get cut in half or worse even if it loses only a few points here and there.

03-27-2019, 04:06 PM	#3
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	there's no such thing as an unlucky BABIP card. BABIP takes years to be a trustable stat as well. If you like his ratings, stick with him. If you don't, find someone else.

03-27-2019, 04:29 PM	#9
OMGPuppies All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 1,627	Another reason why I get rid of all my LIVE cards. I don't want the stress of a card dropping in value.

03-27-2019, 04:41 PM	#13
OMGPuppies All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 1,627	Maybe a downside of the changing values of LIVE cards is that cards are kept out of circulation by speculators.

03-27-2019, 04:45 PM	#14
HiDesertAce Major Leagues Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 315	Arenado is one of the best LIVE perfect cards imo trainable at other postions. 90 at 1b, 70 at 2b what are your park factors? have you faced predominantly RH pitching? he mashes LHP, but not great OBP vs RH. the only reason I would sell is if you could get a premium. then buy him back later for less when AH prices stabilize its way too early to sell a card like this unless you have someone waiting in the wings.

03-28-2019, 06:57 AM	#20
IcedT22 Bat Boy Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 19	Of course it's small sample sizes now here in PT in OOTP20. My JD Martinez example is from PT in OOTP19. Looking at trends over 10+ seasons is a sufficient sample to begin noticing interesting things.