SP & RP rating priority in Perfect Leagues

Neezer · 02-25-2019, 12:38 PM

For Starting Pitchers in Perfect Leagues, what is the priority ranking of the main ratings to be able to know if a player will be good or not. Ive learned the OVR card rating is not a good indicator.

So please rank, Stuff, Movement and Control.

Same for RPs, please rank Stuff, Movement and Control.

For both, are there any thresholds for any of the ratings that should be avoided at all costs. For example, regardless of what a SPs Con and Mov are, any SP with a Stuff lower than "X" should be avoided?

Also, any advice on either Pitch Counts or Hook (quick vs slow)

DonkeyKongSr · 02-25-2019, 01:42 PM

MOV
.
.
STU
CON

It may seem like that's too much emphasis on stopping just the HR, but the good HR suppressors have a HR/9 of around 0.5 while the bad ones are around 1.5. Not counting men on base, that's +1.00 ERA alone. And then there are outliers like Dallas Keuchel 86 with a HR/9 of about 0.1 to 0.2 normally.

Your MOV threshold should be around 70. I've never done hard analysis on the exact point, but it's a good eyeball point.

I don't really change these ranking much for RP vs. SP, but by the nature of the players available & game mechanics, STU will tend to be higher for RP, so in some ways you can focus less on it since most RP have it.

CrazyWR · 02-25-2019, 01:49 PM

as long as movement is 65+ you should be fine, aim for 65+ in all 3 numbers. If you have a ballpark that suppresses home runs, you might be able to get away with 60 movement but I wouldn't count on it. Similarly if you have a ballpark that suppresses LH hitters, you might get away with a LH reliever with lower movement (like Doolittle).

As far as stuff vs control - if you have great defense - control is more important than stuff, your defense will suppress hits so eliminating walks is important. If your defense isn't as tight, stuff will help suppress hits and should be prioritized over walks because you can't let the ball be put in play as often as possible.

EDIT: I play with a 20 to 80 ratings scale so not sure what those ratings I gave you translate to on 0-100 sorry - for point of reference, diamond Warren Spahn rates out to a 65 in stuff/mov/con so you can use him to translate?

DonkeyKongSr · 02-25-2019, 01:50 PM

Oh yeah, here's a chart I did awhile back comparing the ratings to some stats for starters in a Perfect League I was in. You can see they are fairly well correlated, although there's definitely not clear cutoff points. The 70 is more from experience and knowing the available pool of players.

On my Perfect League champs, lowest MOV for my SP was 68 for Randy Johnson (97) and it showed, so I moved him to the BP when I got a 77 MOV pitcher (Time Keefe) to replace him.

Neezer · 02-25-2019, 03:32 PM

Im definitely looking at them wrong. This should help. But I am surprised then at some of the ratings of some top SPs. By this, then guys K guys like Seaver, Big Unit, Gooden, and Ryan are not that great in PL.

CrazyWR · 02-25-2019, 03:40 PM

giving up home runs is bad. Strikeouts are nice but not essential.

DonkeyKongSr · 02-25-2019, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neezer

Im definitely looking at them wrong. This should help. But I am surprised then at some of the ratings of some top SPs. By this, then guys K guys like Seaver, Big Unit, Gooden, and Ryan are not that great in PL.

Perfect Gooden is really good. Unit is hit or miss as a starter but a good reliever. No top PL team owns Seaver or Ryan.

chazzycat · 02-25-2019, 04:05 PM

One good thing about strikeouts is they are very reliable and so they kind of serve as a pitcher's "floor". As you can see in the graphs above, they have the best correlation with real results. So you can buy an upgrade in the STUFF category and you should see the results pretty clearly even across multiple seasons. Pitchers with a low strikeout rate have a lower floor, because without strikeouts they are much more vulnerable to swings in BABIP (i.e. bad luck).

KleineBiere · 02-25-2019, 05:42 PM

If you are looking for a solid fourth/fifth man

Keuchel needs a very good infield. His ERA is often much higher than his FIP

chazzycat · 02-25-2019, 09:59 PM

I just played a 3 game series in the mini-whale league against a team with really good MOV but low strikeout pitchers, including the 86 Keuchel. I scored 12 runs each game and got the sweep. My team and ballpark factors are built more on contact than power, so I love to see those matchups. That's the kind of risk I'm talking about. Just kind of depends on how the teams in your division are set up.

02-25-2019, 12:38 PM	#1
Neezer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 115	SP & RP rating priority in Perfect Leagues For Starting Pitchers in Perfect Leagues, what is the priority ranking of the main ratings to be able to know if a player will be good or not. Ive learned the OVR card rating is not a good indicator. So please rank, Stuff, Movement and Control. Same for RPs, please rank Stuff, Movement and Control. For both, are there any thresholds for any of the ratings that should be avoided at all costs. For example, regardless of what a SPs Con and Mov are, any SP with a Stuff lower than "X" should be avoided? Also, any advice on either Pitch Counts or Hook (quick vs slow)

02-25-2019, 01:42 PM	#2
DonkeyKongSr All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 777	MOV . . STU CON It may seem like that's too much emphasis on stopping just the HR, but the good HR suppressors have a HR/9 of around 0.5 while the bad ones are around 1.5. Not counting men on base, that's +1.00 ERA alone. And then there are outliers like Dallas Keuchel 86 with a HR/9 of about 0.1 to 0.2 normally. Your MOV threshold should be around 70. I've never done hard analysis on the exact point, but it's a good eyeball point. I don't really change these ranking much for RP vs. SP, but by the nature of the players available & game mechanics, STU will tend to be higher for RP, so in some ways you can focus less on it since most RP have it. Last edited by DonkeyKongSr; 02-25-2019 at 04:48 PM.

02-25-2019, 01:49 PM	#3
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	as long as movement is 65+ you should be fine, aim for 65+ in all 3 numbers. If you have a ballpark that suppresses home runs, you might be able to get away with 60 movement but I wouldn't count on it. Similarly if you have a ballpark that suppresses LH hitters, you might get away with a LH reliever with lower movement (like Doolittle). As far as stuff vs control - if you have great defense - control is more important than stuff, your defense will suppress hits so eliminating walks is important. If your defense isn't as tight, stuff will help suppress hits and should be prioritized over walks because you can't let the ball be put in play as often as possible. EDIT: I play with a 20 to 80 ratings scale so not sure what those ratings I gave you translate to on 0-100 sorry - for point of reference, diamond Warren Spahn rates out to a 65 in stuff/mov/con so you can use him to translate? Last edited by CrazyWR; 02-25-2019 at 01:50 PM.

02-25-2019, 01:50 PM	#4
DonkeyKongSr All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 777	Oh yeah, here's a chart I did awhile back comparing the ratings to some stats for starters in a Perfect League I was in. You can see they are fairly well correlated, although there's definitely not clear cutoff points. The 70 is more from experience and knowing the available pool of players. On my Perfect League champs, lowest MOV for my SP was 68 for Randy Johnson (97) and it showed, so I moved him to the BP when I got a 77 MOV pitcher (Time Keefe) to replace him. Attached Images

02-25-2019, 03:32 PM	#5
Neezer Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 115	Im definitely looking at them wrong. This should help. But I am surprised then at some of the ratings of some top SPs. By this, then guys K guys like Seaver, Big Unit, Gooden, and Ryan are not that great in PL.

02-25-2019, 03:40 PM	#6
CrazyWR All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 549	giving up home runs is bad. Strikeouts are nice but not essential.

02-25-2019, 04:05 PM	#8
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	One good thing about strikeouts is they are very reliable and so they kind of serve as a pitcher's "floor". As you can see in the graphs above, they have the best correlation with real results. So you can buy an upgrade in the STUFF category and you should see the results pretty clearly even across multiple seasons. Pitchers with a low strikeout rate have a lower floor, because without strikeouts they are much more vulnerable to swings in BABIP (i.e. bad luck).

02-25-2019, 05:42 PM	#9
KleineBiere Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 108	If you are looking for a solid fourth/fifth man Keuchel needs a very good infield. His ERA is often much higher than his FIP

02-25-2019, 09:59 PM	#10
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I just played a 3 game series in the mini-whale league against a team with really good MOV but low strikeout pitchers, including the 86 Keuchel. I scored 12 runs each game and got the sweep. My team and ballpark factors are built more on contact than power, so I love to see those matchups. That's the kind of risk I'm talking about. Just kind of depends on how the teams in your division are set up.