Accidental 4-man Rotation Experiment

DonkeyKongSr · 02-15-2019, 10:51 PM

So, my Perfect League team made the playoffs last year and my #5 was Jacob deGrom. A Diamond Buster Posey was available (one of the best hitting catchers in the game) and I was short PP, so I sold deGrom to get Posey figuring I'd get a new pitcher in the new season. Didn't succeed in the playoffs, but whatever.

Fast forward to this season where I forgot to reset to a 5-man rotation on Monday and didn't check my team again until earlier today. That means all week long I've been running Van Mungo, Keuchel (86), Maddux (94), and Randy (97).

You'd think a 4-man rotation in Perfect would be a disaster. But, it was anything but that, with my team in 1st place in my division (4th in league) with the best pitching stats in the league. Keuchel went nuts and leads the league in ERA by a lot. Maddox did pretty awesome. Mungo was great, even though this was his worst season yet. Randy stunk, though. And my short 6-man, all RHP bullpen even held up.

Check out my conference pitching ranks and individual stats. Just amazing overall. Looking closer at the players, there were lots of short 5-6 inning starts, but otherwise their performance didn't seem to take a hit from a lot of 80% Rest starts, other than Randy.

Even after seeing these results, I've switched back to a 5-man rotation. I initially put Randy up for auction, put pulled him back after I was able to sell a batter for enough to grab Johnny Rigney. Randy's lower start total is due to his time in the AH. In the morning he'll be eligible and be my new #5 on what should be a really strong pitching staff.

DonkeyKongSr · 02-15-2019, 11:42 PM

One thing you can see between Randy and Dallas is that HR/9 differential. Even if every HR was with no men on, there's a 1.4 ERA difference just in HR.

DonkeyKongSr · 02-15-2019, 11:47 PM

Also, I guess I need to look up how to calculate pitcher WAR, because it seems like Strikeouts, Walks, and WHIP impact it greatly as Keuchel has the 3rd WAR among my SP with the clear best in most other stats.

SF Giants · 02-16-2019, 12:25 AM

I run 4-man rotation by myself but I think it's beneficial only in few occasions which are overlapping. The problem is that in 4-man rotation pitchers are not getting enough rest so you start them at 80% rested level. What I do to avoid earning runs in SP's later innings is to limit their pitch count to 75 (no matter if you limit count to 65 or 85 pitcher won't recover to 100% in 3 days) but what sometimes happen is that you have a streak of 10 games and one of the games runs into extra innings eventually depleting all your relievers... Prerequisite is to have good wide bullpen preferably with good stamina.
So when to use 4-man rotation? When you are broke and cannot upgrade SPs but you have 4 quality arms. When one of your 5 SPs is having a bad year -> moving him to bullpen works for me.
Except such situations 5-men rotation is always superior ...

Dunzie · 02-16-2019, 12:56 AM

I've made a point of sticking to a 5-man regular season and going to a 4-man (and occasionally even shorter when a key win is needed) in the playoffs, but the only time I did what you did and forgot to stick the long playoff guy back in the rotation the next week my four guys seemed to get whooped. If I'm paying enough attention I sometimes skip my 5th starter when there's a day off in the schedule. But usually if I like my 5 guys I keep 'em all in.

Izz · 02-16-2019, 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunzie

I've made a point of sticking to a 5-man regular season and going to a 4-man (and occasionally even shorter when a key win is needed) in the playoffs, but the only time I did what you did and forgot to stick the long playoff guy back in the rotation the next week my four guys seemed to get whooped. If I'm paying enough attention I sometimes skip my 5th starter when there's a day off in the schedule. But usually if I like my 5 guys I keep 'em all in.

I run a 5-man rotation but set to Always Start Highest Rested. My #5 starter usually gets around 25 starts while my #1 and #2 get 35 or 36.

4-man rotation in playoffs, though I micromanage a bit more come playoff time.

DonkeyKongSr · 02-16-2019, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Izz

I run a 5-man rotation but set to Always Start Highest Rested. My #5 starter usually gets around 25 starts while my #1 and #2 get 35 or 36.

4-man rotation in playoffs, though I micromanage a bit more come playoff time.

Yeah, I think that setting essentially runs as a 4-man when there's a rest day, always picking the highest ranked 100% SP. I'm not sure what the "Strict, on Occasion Highest Rested' does different than Strict, though.

Matt Arnold · 02-16-2019, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonkeyKongSr

Yeah, I think that setting essentially runs as a 4-man when there's a rest day, always picking the highest ranked 100% SP. I'm not sure what the "Strict, on Occasion Highest Rested' does different than Strict, though.

Strict on occasion matters more for regular leagues where you have more roster movement and injuries. It's essentially a strict order, except is allowed to change around sometimes.

Strict is strict. If you have a strict order set and the scheduled starter is only at 40%, he pitches.

02-15-2019, 10:51 PM	#1
DonkeyKongSr All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 777	Accidental 4-man Rotation Experiment So, my Perfect League team made the playoffs last year and my #5 was Jacob deGrom. A Diamond Buster Posey was available (one of the best hitting catchers in the game) and I was short PP, so I sold deGrom to get Posey figuring I'd get a new pitcher in the new season. Didn't succeed in the playoffs, but whatever. Fast forward to this season where I forgot to reset to a 5-man rotation on Monday and didn't check my team again until earlier today. That means all week long I've been running Van Mungo, Keuchel (86), Maddux (94), and Randy (97). You'd think a 4-man rotation in Perfect would be a disaster. But, it was anything but that, with my team in 1st place in my division (4th in league) with the best pitching stats in the league. Keuchel went nuts and leads the league in ERA by a lot. Maddox did pretty awesome. Mungo was great, even though this was his worst season yet. Randy stunk, though. And my short 6-man, all RHP bullpen even held up. Check out my conference pitching ranks and individual stats. Just amazing overall. Looking closer at the players, there were lots of short 5-6 inning starts, but otherwise their performance didn't seem to take a hit from a lot of 80% Rest starts, other than Randy. Even after seeing these results, I've switched back to a 5-man rotation. I initially put Randy up for auction, put pulled him back after I was able to sell a batter for enough to grab Johnny Rigney. Randy's lower start total is due to his time in the AH. In the morning he'll be eligible and be my new #5 on what should be a really strong pitching staff. Attached Images Last edited by DonkeyKongSr; 02-15-2019 at 10:53 PM.

02-15-2019, 11:42 PM	#2
DonkeyKongSr All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 777	One thing you can see between Randy and Dallas is that HR/9 differential. Even if every HR was with no men on, there's a 1.4 ERA difference just in HR.

02-15-2019, 11:47 PM	#3
DonkeyKongSr All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 777	Also, I guess I need to look up how to calculate pitcher WAR, because it seems like Strikeouts, Walks, and WHIP impact it greatly as Keuchel has the 3rd WAR among my SP with the clear best in most other stats.

02-16-2019, 12:25 AM	#4
SF Giants Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 115	I run 4-man rotation by myself but I think it's beneficial only in few occasions which are overlapping. The problem is that in 4-man rotation pitchers are not getting enough rest so you start them at 80% rested level. What I do to avoid earning runs in SP's later innings is to limit their pitch count to 75 (no matter if you limit count to 65 or 85 pitcher won't recover to 100% in 3 days) but what sometimes happen is that you have a streak of 10 games and one of the games runs into extra innings eventually depleting all your relievers... Prerequisite is to have good wide bullpen preferably with good stamina. So when to use 4-man rotation? When you are broke and cannot upgrade SPs but you have 4 quality arms. When one of your 5 SPs is having a bad year -> moving him to bullpen works for me. Except such situations 5-men rotation is always superior ...

02-16-2019, 12:56 AM	#5
Dunzie All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Guelph, ON, CAN Posts: 588	I've made a point of sticking to a 5-man regular season and going to a 4-man (and occasionally even shorter when a key win is needed) in the playoffs, but the only time I did what you did and forgot to stick the long playoff guy back in the rotation the next week my four guys seemed to get whooped. If I'm paying enough attention I sometimes skip my 5th starter when there's a day off in the schedule. But usually if I like my 5 guys I keep 'em all in.