Is Pitching really just a crapshoot

[Maddox]

Below is a screenshot of all the Patrick Corbins in my league. Just under half the teams have him in their squad. This is all the same league so we are hopefully facing roughly equal level of talent.

I realize we are only one third of the way through the season

1. I still say that the fluctuations are too great. 7.32 era down to a 2.61 is a large fluctuation. I expect variance but that is extreme.

2. People have asked about my defense. My Corbin is the first of the two with a 5.20 ERA. I have the the lowest rated Def Eff in my conference. But look at the guy with the 2.61 ERA. He has the lowest rated def eff in the other conference.

3. Are HR allowed that big of a factor in WAR? My war is greater than someone who has a 7-1 record and an ERA nearly 3 points less. I really only out do the lowest Corbin in HR allowed and strikeouts per 9

Bottom line is that these type of huge fluctuations of a single pitcher makes me very leery to spend much on pitching. It seems like a crap shoot. I can find hitters who are fairly consistent but pitching consistency seems elusive. It seems like any pitcher with any ratings can blow up.

My Sean Doolittle is on pace to have his 3rd season (out of 4) with an ERA above 4.00. I look at his ratings and can only wonder why? Keone Kela has out pitched him in each of those 4 years.

[scott1964]

Yes. I think there is too much variation from season. Probably intended to spice things up but still a headache to most. Examples: Teams are too streaky. I just came off a 11 game
losing streak, last season my gold team had about half dozen losing streaks of five or more games. If my team had a very productive month then I can say without a
doubt the next month will be in the toilet. Anyways getting back to players.

Brendan McKay Rated 86


Larry Dierker Rated 83


Larry Jansen Rated 65


Tyler Anderson Rated 63


Warren Spahn Rated 86

[jd200600]

I agree. I have a plan to go two more day in sims and then dump my top rated pitchers if there is not a turn-a-round. Verlander, Snell and Cole have been awful now for two plus years, while a guy has a 73 Musgrove that is dominating our diamond league.

[old timer]

Originally Posted by scott1964

Yes. I think there is too much variation from season. Probably intended to spice things up but still a headache to most.

I disagree with the "spice things up" part. I can't imagine the developers would want to tinker with the game engine like that. Of course, only they can answer that.

As far as too much variation goes, I'm not sure about this one. But if it's present in PT, then I'm pretty sure it's present in the solo game since again, why risk breaking things to supposedly "spice things up" when people may not even see it that way?

Most of the variation I've seen seems entirely reasonable, both in my team and in the leagues I've been in. I think we'd need someone to do a statistical analysis to see if something's really off here. Otherwise, it's just too hard to see if anything is really wrong. Yeah, I know a number of people disagree here.

As far as pitching goes, the OP's experience here is vastly different than mine. My pitching has been very consistently good (except at diamond which was when all the super-teams were there). My defense is consistently rated near the top if not the top in the entire league, so that may be part of the reason. Plus, your catchers ability rating matters here too.

[old timer]

Here's my pitching staff and rankings (at gold level):

By the way, my team BABIP is consistently low and according to the manual, it's because flyball pitchers will have a lower BABIP.

[old timer]

Maybe you could post your staff with ratings and your lineup with defensive ratings?

[Izz]

Originally Posted by Maddox

1. I still say that the fluctuations are too great. 7.32 era down to a 2.61 is a large fluctuation. I expect variance but that is extreme.

Isn't FIP a better measure? 3.28 to 4.67. A lot of the BABIPs suggest bad luck, too.

I'd say defense and park factors are a big deal, and overall pitching strategies contribute too.

The BABIP of the 2.61 ERA guy suggests he's been super lucky so far.

[old timer]

Originally Posted by Izz

The BABIP of the 2.61 ERA guy suggests he's been super lucky so far.

Not necessarily. Because I have a good defense and mostly flyball pitchers, my team is always near the top in BABIP. So you can't look at BABIP and tell how lucky someone is, without looking at other factors too.

[Izz]

Originally Posted by old timer

Not necessarily. Because I have a good defense and mostly flyball pitchers, my team is always near the top in BABIP. So you can't look at BABIP and tell how lucky someone is, without looking at other factors too.

True. But in this case Maddox says that team has the worst defense in their conference, so perhaps luck might be a factor this time.

[old timer]

Originally Posted by Izz

True. But in this case Maddox says that team has the worst defense in their conference, so perhaps luck might be a factor this time.

Ah, good point.

[old timer]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that groundball pitchers suffer more from a bad defense than do flyball pitchers. I wonder if the OP has mostly groundball pitchers?

Also, didn't you buy Chris Carpenter? I believe I added Carpenter to my team right after you added him to your team. How's he done for you? For me he had a 5.7 WAR last season (at gold) and is on pace for 5.8 WAR this season (at gold).

Edit: I'd recommend getting guys like Dierker and Barker as well as Carpenter, all of whom seem to do consistently well for lots of teams.

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by old timer

Maybe you could post your staff with ratings and your lineup with defensive ratings?

Here are my starters. They finished 15th in the conference last season. Looking at the ratings of these guys I just feel that they should do better, especially since we are still in gold league. They are currently 12th in the conference.

I will be the first to admit my defensive ratings are bad I started a couple of guys at new positions after the regular starters decided to hit .150 for the first month of the season

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by old timer

Not necessarily. Because I have a good defense and mostly flyball pitchers, my team is always near the top in BABIP. So you can't look at BABIP and tell how lucky someone is, without looking at other factors too.

Severino and Matlack are Neutral
Bunning and Schourek are Flyball
Corbin is Groundball

Originally Posted by old timer

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that groundball pitchers suffer more from a bad defense than do flyball pitchers. I wonder if the OP has mostly groundball pitchers?

Also, didn't you buy Chris Carpenter? I believe I added Carpenter to my team right after you added him to your team. How's he done for you? For me he had a 5.7 WAR last season (at gold) and is on pace for 5.8 WAR this season (at gold).

Edit: I'd recommend getting guys like Dierker and Barker as well as Carpenter, all of whom seem to do consistently well for lots of teams.

Carpenter was for my all Cardinals team. He had a good season last season (18-8 with a 3.46 era). This season is a little rougher (3-7 with a 4.36).

[old timer]

Originally Posted by Maddox

Severino and Matlack are Neutral
Bunning and Schourek are Flyball
Corbin is Groundball



Carpenter was for my all Cardinals team. He had a good season last season (18-8 with a 3.46 era). This season is a little rougher (3-7 with a 4.36).

Thanks for the extra info! I've been wondering how much defense matters, but I've been too lazy to export the stats to check on this. I wonder if anyone has analyzed this?

Maybe if you just upgrade your D at key positions like SS, 2B, CF and C, you'll see an improvement and more consistency? Also, what's your catchers ability rating? The developers said that's pretty important with respect to pitching performance.

[KleineBiere]

Same Level/Teams
Same Lineup
Same Ballpark
Same Pitcher

[omniart]

To take two Corbins as an example, the Corbin with the 2.61 ERA (2.7 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9, 4.21 FIP) and the Corbin with the 5.80 ERA (2.6 K/BB, 0.9 HR/9, 4.13 FIP) have pitched almost identically. By FIP, the 5.80 ERA Corbin has pitched slightly better.

The big difference in ERA is due to the huge difference in BABIP: .241 vs. .351. That is out of control of the Corbins and is down to defense, ballpark factors, and luck.

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by old timer

Thanks for the extra info! I've been wondering how much defense matters, but I've been too lazy to export the stats to check on this. I wonder if anyone has analyzed this?

Maybe if you just upgrade your D at key positions like SS, 2B, CF and C, you'll see an improvement and more consistency? Also, what's your catchers ability rating? The developers said that's pretty important with respect to pitching performance.

Actually I am curious so I started a third team. I am going to be looking for elite, or near elite defenders. High positional ranking, range and low errors.

The ultimate test would be if I could eventually wind up with the same pitching staff in gold league but with only a few months left I am not sure I will be able to pull it off and gather enough data.

Now I have to just start looking for elite level fielders who can also hit a little and not cost a fortune. I am going to ignore HR power completely. I pulled Albert Belle in my starter packs so I will stick him at DH in the 3 spot and build around him.

[mcdog512]

Originally Posted by Maddox

Actually I am curious so I started a third team. I am going to be looking for elite, or near elite defenders. High positional ranking, range and low errors.

The ultimate test would be if I could eventually wind up with the same pitching staff in gold league but with only a few months left I am not sure I will be able to pull it off and gather enough data.

Now I have to just start looking for elite level fielders who can also hit a little and not cost a fortune. I am going to ignore HR power completely. I pulled Albert Belle in my starter packs so I will stick him at DH in the 3 spot and build around him.

Sounds like a fun experiment and fun to put together....keep us posted as to who you get and how you do. Maybe start a thread on that experiment.

[captainbuttercream]

FIP seems to be the single most important factor in determining Pitching WAR.

I'm beginning to think the most important that Movement is the strongest factor to pitching consistency. Since most lineups are loaded with power, anything under 50 is going to give up a ton of home runs.

[Maddox]

Originally Posted by mcdog512

Sounds like a fun experiment and fun to put together....keep us posted as to who you get and how you do. Maybe start a thread on that experiment.

I may start a thread asking for player suggestions. It will be a tough think to target. I have 3 teams, two if different gold leagues and now one in the entry league so I can search those leagues for players but beyond that it is just going to the Auction house and expanding every player to check their ratings.


Right now I am thinking SS, 2B and CF will need to have the most elite fielding with the corner spots still needing to be very good but not quite as elite.