Player Momentum

llcmac · 01-04-2019, 08:45 PM

Stupid question...

Theoretically, if I had a 20-0 1.93 ERA 79ovr Juan Marichal going up against a 6-15 5.43 ERA 79ovr Juan Marichal (everything else being equal, ballpark, run support, defense, catcher). Would the one having a better season have an advantage over the other?

If I ditch a player having a crappy season, is he any more likely to turn it around with a new team?

bailey · 01-04-2019, 09:04 PM

It should be 50-50, but I believe (probably wrongly) that players listed by the game as HOT, have temporary boosts to their ability, and players who are COLD, temporary declines. For the COLD players, I move them to the reserve roster for a month or two. Seems to work.

<Pion> · 01-04-2019, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bailey

It should be 50-50, but I believe (probably wrongly) that players listed by the game as HOT, have temporary boosts to their ability, and players who are COLD, temporary declines. For the COLD players, I move them to the reserve roster for a month or two. Seems to work.

Interesting to find out if that is true. I assumed the Hot/Cold was just something that came up due to a player's performance, not because they were temporarily boosted/declined. I've been leaving them in since I figured they were just as likely to start hitting as not.

I had a Perfect Trout that went through a 90 game slump. His SLG did not get over .300 until this afternoon. Finally got his average above the Mendoza line (I think he's hitting .400 in the current month)

chazzycat · 01-04-2019, 09:15 PM

I don't know for sure, but honestly would be VERY surprised if that was the case.

OOTP prides itself on realism and that would just not be realistic. Being on a hot streak is not predictive of future performance whatsoever.

bobbycockstrong · 01-04-2019, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I don't know for sure, but honestly would be VERY surprised if that was the case.

OOTP prides itself on realism and that would just not be realistic. Being on a hot streak is not predictive of future performance whatsoever.

Not necessarily - in all sports if a player is doing well and "hot" sometimes they have an air of confidence about them and perform better (effectively like an extra boost to their ratings).

Same for players in a slump, sometimes they lack confidence and try to change things and continue to struggle (underperforming their true ability).

Nopt just baseball, all sports. Same with club house chemistry for example.

I dont know if either of these things (hot/cold, chemistry) has a major impact in OOTP, im just saying in real life they arguably have an impact.

Thalion · 01-04-2019, 11:27 PM

I would expect that to be covered by morale, which is turned off in PT

freedavebrown · 01-05-2019, 09:05 AM

So the hot and cold markers do not have any effect on performance?

Orcin · 01-05-2019, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

So the hot and cold markers do not have any effect on performance?

They illustrate current performance. They don’t influence future performance.

freedavebrown · 01-05-2019, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

They illustrate current performance. They don’t influence future performance.

Oh, interesting. Then what is the point? Why would I want to change anything based on it if it did not indicate anything about future performance?

Orcin · 01-05-2019, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

Oh, interesting. Then what is the point? Why would I want to change anything based on it if it did not indicate anything about future performance?

The player is in a slump, so you might want to bench him. The player is hot, so you might want to move him up in the order.

freedavebrown · 01-05-2019, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

The player is in a slump, so you might want to bench him. The player is hot, so you might want to move him up in the order.

That would only make sense if it DID have some bearing on future performance. . . Why would I move a player up in the lineup with a little fire next to his name if the little fire did not indicate anything at all about how he would perform in the NEXT game?

mcdog512 · 01-05-2019, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

That would only make sense if it DID have some bearing on future performance. . . Why would I move a player up in the lineup with a little fire next to his name if the little fire did not indicate anything at all about how he would perform in the NEXT game?

Exactly - it doesn't make any sense if morale/mentality/hot/cold are meaningless.

Orcin · 01-05-2019, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

That would only make sense if it DID have some bearing on future performance. . . Why would I move a player up in the lineup with a little fire next to his name if the little fire did not indicate anything at all about how he would perform in the NEXT game?

He is hot now. Do you expect him to cool off at the precise moment that the little fire symbol appears? I said it does not INFLUENCE future performance. That doesn't mean that the hot streak stops immediately. Sheez.

freedavebrown · 01-05-2019, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orcin

He is hot now. Do you expect him to cool off at the precise moment that the little fire symbol appears? I said it does not INFLUENCE future performance. That doesn't mean that the hot streak stops immediately. Sheez.

This makes no sense.

Either a player being hot/cold influences future performance or it does not. If it does not, it has zero utility in making rational future decisions.

Say I have two copies of the exact same card. One on my reserve roster. One on my active roster. If the one on my active roster is cold, it ONLY makes sense to swap him for the one on my reserve roster if streaks influence future performance. If they do not, and it would not make sense to swap the cards, then the little cold symbol is entirely superfluous.

Orcin · 01-05-2019, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

This makes no sense.

Either a player being hot/cold influences future performance or it does not. If it does not, it has zero utility in making rational future decisions.

Say I have two copies of the exact same card. One on my reserve roster. One on my active roster. If the one on my active roster is cold, it ONLY makes sense to swap him for the one on my reserve roster if streaks influence future performance. If they do not, and it would not make sense to swap the cards, then the little cold symbol is entirely superfluous.

Ok, have it your way.

whobob · 01-05-2019, 01:21 PM

He is right, though-- if you flip a coin 10 times and they all come up heads, then the coin could get a little "fire symbol" next to it. If the fire doesn't mean that there's now a 51% chance of coming up heads the next time, then it is meaningless to assume that the head streak will continue.

freedavebrown · 01-05-2019, 01:25 PM

If it really doesn´t mean anything in terms of future performance, then it should be removed from PT. It is just confusing.

bailey · 01-05-2019, 01:59 PM

OOTP is a very streaky game, that's why I believe, there are temporary boosts and declines "under the hood". As long as these boosts are evenly spread out, it wouldn't affect "realism" one bit.

<Pion> · 01-05-2019, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedavebrown

If it really doesn´t mean anything in terms of future performance, then it should be removed from PT. It is just confusing.

Disagree strongly. I'm one who enjoys knowing who is playing well or not recently.

BPS · 01-06-2019, 02:21 AM

Recent research supports the existence of "hot streaks" in a number of sports.It is possible that hot streaks are built in OOTP. Of course, a player being identified as hot or cold might often just be the result of random chance...and this is likely the most common reason for reported hot or cold streaks...but it is also possible that in some cases this is a result of some underlying factor built into OOTP that gives a temporary positive or negative boost to a player.

It is reasonable to treat reports of a player being hot or cold seriously (and make decisions based on that) but it is also reasonable to ignore such reports as being (largely? entirely?) due to simple random chance. Until the developers reveal whether they have built hot/cold streaks into the game, we can't know exactly how to interpret reports of hot/cold players.

01-04-2019, 08:45 PM	#1
llcmac Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 38	Player Momentum Stupid question... Theoretically, if I had a 20-0 1.93 ERA 79ovr Juan Marichal going up against a 6-15 5.43 ERA 79ovr Juan Marichal (everything else being equal, ballpark, run support, defense, catcher). Would the one having a better season have an advantage over the other? If I ditch a player having a crappy season, is he any more likely to turn it around with a new team?

01-04-2019, 09:04 PM	#2
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,366	It should be 50-50, but I believe (probably wrongly) that players listed by the game as HOT, have temporary boosts to their ability, and players who are COLD, temporary declines. For the COLD players, I move them to the reserve roster for a month or two. Seems to work.

01-04-2019, 09:15 PM	#4
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	I don't know for sure, but honestly would be VERY surprised if that was the case. OOTP prides itself on realism and that would just not be realistic. Being on a hot streak is not predictive of future performance whatsoever.

01-04-2019, 11:27 PM	#6
Thalion Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 413	I would expect that to be covered by morale, which is turned off in PT

01-05-2019, 09:05 AM	#7
freedavebrown Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 135	So the hot and cold markers do not have any effect on performance?

01-05-2019, 01:21 PM	#16
whobob Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 85	He is right, though-- if you flip a coin 10 times and they all come up heads, then the coin could get a little "fire symbol" next to it. If the fire doesn't mean that there's now a 51% chance of coming up heads the next time, then it is meaningless to assume that the head streak will continue.

01-05-2019, 01:25 PM	#17
freedavebrown Minors (Double A) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 135	If it really doesn´t mean anything in terms of future performance, then it should be removed from PT. It is just confusing.

01-05-2019, 01:59 PM	#18
bailey Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 3,366	OOTP is a very streaky game, that's why I believe, there are temporary boosts and declines "under the hood". As long as these boosts are evenly spread out, it wouldn't affect "realism" one bit.

01-06-2019, 02:21 AM	#20
BPS All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 717	Recent research supports the existence of "hot streaks" in a number of sports.It is possible that hot streaks are built in OOTP. Of course, a player being identified as hot or cold might often just be the result of random chance...and this is likely the most common reason for reported hot or cold streaks...but it is also possible that in some cases this is a result of some underlying factor built into OOTP that gives a temporary positive or negative boost to a player. It is reasonable to treat reports of a player being hot or cold seriously (and make decisions based on that) but it is also reasonable to ignore such reports as being (largely? entirely?) due to simple random chance. Until the developers reveal whether they have built hot/cold streaks into the game, we can't know exactly how to interpret reports of hot/cold players.