Recognizing historical prospects that failed in real life, but allowing them to pan out

BMW · 01-01-2019, 10:58 AM

For years I have wanted to do some research on prospects to compile a list of players who were highly thought of at the time but never made it big.

In the 1980/90s+, we have historical prospect lists from Baseball America. From the 1960s onward, although much less reliable, we have baseball cards. Prior to that - well, that's where my research was going to come in.

I think it would be fantastic to have a rating on the backend that assigns a player value ceiling - so that given this rating, major failed prospects like Ryan Anderson, Rick Ankiel, Shawn Abner, Brad Komminsk or Torey Lovullo are acknowledged as prospects in the game and actually have a chance (when recalc is off) to reach their potential.

Either have a player value (and have the OOTP engine look at their major/minor stats and extrapolate that Komminsk would have been a major power hitter) or have something where a few metrics are kept (contact, power, eye, speed, def, stuff, control).

There are a lot of ways to play OOTP, and one is reliving and learning about baseball history. Part of the history that's lost in the pure MLB stats are these prospects that never panned out, and it would cool to have a way to bring them back to life.

BMW · 11-06-2021, 02:00 PM

Bumping this, because I actually made a lot of headway into a data store of historical prospects since I last posted this.

It would be fantastic to have some way to import to OOTP (or have some optional data points in the core database) so that it recognized some of these prospects that failed to deliver.

Effectively to separate the guy with a career 5.00 ERA in the minors who was a 45th round draft pick from a guy with identical stats who was a high-potential prospect.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who likes to play OOTP as a what-if simulator, and a huge part of baseball lore is wrapped up in the prospects that never made it. As fans, we remember these players who represented our dreams of future championships. Some made it, many didn't.

I would be happy to share data under some creative commons type license.

fredbeene · 03-08-2022, 10:11 PM

awesome.....
include option to prevent or allow players that never reached the majors....or x percent

littlejim13 · 03-14-2022, 06:01 PM

I second this, I am always fascinated learning about prospects before they were covered by Baseball periodicals constantly. Do any research or list you can share?

eauhomme · 03-17-2022, 04:19 AM

I have played many historical sims, and it amazes me how some of the minor league guys who never made it turn into stars. I see a name I don't recognize showing up as an All-Star and I look him up on baseball-reference.com and see he stalled at AA ball in real life. Likewise, I've seen established players in real life fail to make an impact on the sim. The results can be very interesting.

BMW · 03-17-2022, 04:18 PM

Yeah, the surprises can always be fun if you do like that. Some folks don't want to see those guys and it can be controlled to a degree. Some of the players aren't guys who were true AAAA-type guys.

They are guys who "trick" the OOTP engine because they struck out a ton of guys in A-ball, and it translates to someone who has a 100 Stuff at the big league level.

What I'm proposing here is something in between - not pure MLB players, not pure engine interpretation where an MVP year at AA can make a guy a big-league starter in OOTP. But something that can be attributed to a player that lets OOTP understand who were the true prospects of the era who may not even accumulated a great minor league record like a Ryan Anderson.

Historically, we know that he was a great prospect, he was in the Baseball America Top 10 overall players three years running. But statistically the numbers don't tell the story of how big a prospect he was. I believe there is value to that kind of history in baseball.

Surely there are many people who are fine with Ryan Anderson never appearing in the big leagues in OOTP because he never did it in the real world. But I'm hoping that there are enough baseball and OOTP fans who love this aspect of the game, pinning your hopes on a young talent who may not pan out. But not forgetting them entirely when they fail and perhaps even still dreaming of the what-ifs.

eauhomme · 03-18-2022, 03:11 PM

Ryan Anderson's a good example.

Brian Cole is another good one recently, a huge power/speed prospect for the Mets who was killed in a car wreck during Spring Training in 2001. He was the #64 prospect that year per Baseball America, but I think that is low. .306 career average, .850 career OPS and coming off a 69 SB year. I think the only reason he wasn't listed higher was because he had been drafted 18th round out of a small no-name college (Navarro College in Texas).

Sweed · 03-18-2022, 03:50 PM

I'm not totally sure I get this. These guys already proved they were not the players the scouts forecast them to be. But you want an artificial way to, again, make them legit top prospects? I suppose if optional but, if not, I wouldn't want this in my historical game.

Seems the development engine "on" gives them the opportunity to become what they "might have been" already.

I don't know? I get wanting to see those names come up as prospects to relive, like any historical season, things that happened. But to artificially give these guys skills they did not have (or at least never were able to deliver on the
hype) or an inflated chance to become good\star players seems... wrong?

Maybe it can be done without changing the way historical players come in now? You did say "(or have some optional data points in the core database)" . Does that mean you want a user have a choice to include or exclude?

Maybe I'm just not understanding?

BMW · 03-18-2022, 08:21 PM

Like everything else in the game, optional. I don't think very much goes into OOTP anymore without being an optional setting.

I have no doubt that the more someone skews toward historical season replay, the less they would be interested in something like this. On the flip side, I've never played with real-life transactions and lineups on, but some people really like that.

Sweed · 03-18-2022, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BMW

Like everything else in the game, optional. I don't think very much goes into OOTP anymore without being an optional setting.

I have no doubt that the more someone skews toward historical season replay, the less they would be interested in something like this. On the flip side, I've never played with real-life transactions and lineups on, but some people really like that.

Thanks.

01-01-2019, 10:58 AM	#1
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	Recognizing historical prospects that failed in real life, but allowing them to pan out For years I have wanted to do some research on prospects to compile a list of players who were highly thought of at the time but never made it big. In the 1980/90s+, we have historical prospect lists from Baseball America. From the 1960s onward, although much less reliable, we have baseball cards. Prior to that - well, that's where my research was going to come in. I think it would be fantastic to have a rating on the backend that assigns a player value ceiling - so that given this rating, major failed prospects like Ryan Anderson, Rick Ankiel, Shawn Abner, Brad Komminsk or Torey Lovullo are acknowledged as prospects in the game and actually have a chance (when recalc is off) to reach their potential. Either have a player value (and have the OOTP engine look at their major/minor stats and extrapolate that Komminsk would have been a major power hitter) or have something where a few metrics are kept (contact, power, eye, speed, def, stuff, control). There are a lot of ways to play OOTP, and one is reliving and learning about baseball history. Part of the history that's lost in the pure MLB stats are these prospects that never panned out, and it would cool to have a way to bring them back to life. __________________ Last edited by BMW; 01-01-2019 at 11:09 AM.

11-06-2021, 02:00 PM	#2
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	Bumping this, because I actually made a lot of headway into a data store of historical prospects since I last posted this. It would be fantastic to have some way to import to OOTP (or have some optional data points in the core database) so that it recognized some of these prospects that failed to deliver. Effectively to separate the guy with a career 5.00 ERA in the minors who was a 45th round draft pick from a guy with identical stats who was a high-potential prospect. I'm sure I'm not the only one who likes to play OOTP as a what-if simulator, and a huge part of baseball lore is wrapped up in the prospects that never made it. As fans, we remember these players who represented our dreams of future championships. Some made it, many didn't. I would be happy to share data under some creative commons type license. __________________ Last edited by BMW; 11-06-2021 at 02:01 PM.

03-18-2022, 08:21 PM	#9
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	Like everything else in the game, optional. I don't think very much goes into OOTP anymore without being an optional setting. I have no doubt that the more someone skews toward historical season replay, the less they would be interested in something like this. On the flip side, I've never played with real-life transactions and lineups on, but some people really like that. __________________

03-08-2022, 10:11 PM	#3
fredbeene All Star Starter Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 1,668	awesome..... include option to prevent or allow players that never reached the majors....or x percent

03-14-2022, 06:01 PM	#4
littlejim13 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 100	I second this, I am always fascinated learning about prospects before they were covered by Baseball periodicals constantly. Do any research or list you can share?

03-17-2022, 04:19 AM	#5
eauhomme Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 129	I have played many historical sims, and it amazes me how some of the minor league guys who never made it turn into stars. I see a name I don't recognize showing up as an All-Star and I look him up on baseball-reference.com and see he stalled at AA ball in real life. Likewise, I've seen established players in real life fail to make an impact on the sim. The results can be very interesting.

03-17-2022, 04:18 PM	#6
BMW Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2003 Location: New Jersey Posts: 2,030	Yeah, the surprises can always be fun if you do like that. Some folks don't want to see those guys and it can be controlled to a degree. Some of the players aren't guys who were true AAAA-type guys. They are guys who "trick" the OOTP engine because they struck out a ton of guys in A-ball, and it translates to someone who has a 100 Stuff at the big league level. What I'm proposing here is something in between - not pure MLB players, not pure engine interpretation where an MVP year at AA can make a guy a big-league starter in OOTP. But something that can be attributed to a player that lets OOTP understand who were the true prospects of the era who may not even accumulated a great minor league record like a Ryan Anderson. Historically, we know that he was a great prospect, he was in the Baseball America Top 10 overall players three years running. But statistically the numbers don't tell the story of how big a prospect he was. I believe there is value to that kind of history in baseball. Surely there are many people who are fine with Ryan Anderson never appearing in the big leagues in OOTP because he never did it in the real world. But I'm hoping that there are enough baseball and OOTP fans who love this aspect of the game, pinning your hopes on a young talent who may not pan out. But not forgetting them entirely when they fail and perhaps even still dreaming of the what-ifs. __________________ Last edited by BMW; 03-17-2022 at 04:22 PM.

03-18-2022, 03:11 PM	#7
eauhomme Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 129	Ryan Anderson's a good example. Brian Cole is another good one recently, a huge power/speed prospect for the Mets who was killed in a car wreck during Spring Training in 2001. He was the #64 prospect that year per Baseball America, but I think that is low. .306 career average, .850 career OPS and coming off a 69 SB year. I think the only reason he wasn't listed higher was because he had been drafted 18th round out of a small no-name college (Navarro College in Texas).

03-18-2022, 03:50 PM	#8
Sweed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Iowa Posts: 7,036	I'm not totally sure I get this. These guys already proved they were not the players the scouts forecast them to be. But you want an artificial way to, again, make them legit top prospects? I suppose if optional but, if not, I wouldn't want this in my historical game. Seems the development engine "on" gives them the opportunity to become what they "might have been" already. I don't know? I get wanting to see those names come up as prospects to relive, like any historical season, things that happened. But to artificially give these guys skills they did not have (or at least never were able to deliver on the hype) or an inflated chance to become good\star players seems... wrong? Maybe it can be done without changing the way historical players come in now? You did say "(or have some optional data points in the core database)" . Does that mean you want a user have a choice to include or exclude? Maybe I'm just not understanding?